Description
Short Thesis
â AAON is over-earning due to cyclically strong non-residential construction activity. Despite current earnings being above mid-cycle levels shares trade at 38.6x 2018 estimates
â AAON is losing market share
â Fair value is about 50% below the current price. Shares are not cheap even in a best-case scenario
Business Overview
AAON, Inc. manufactures and sells air-conditioning and heating equipment (HVAC) for the North American commercial and industrial new construction and replacement markets. The company’s largest end markets are education (23% of sales), manufacturing (16% of sales), commercial (21% of sales), and office (17% of sales). Approximately 55% of sales are replacements and 45% is new construction. The market is highly competitive with large and powerful players such as United Technologies, Johnson Controls and Ingersoll-Rand fighting for sales. AAON’s overall market share is about 7%. The company’s products are compatible with control systems from most suppliers are more customizable than many competitors. This makes AAON’s offerings well suited for complex retrofits or buildings that require unique performance capabilities. People I spoke with in the industry noted that AAON high-quality products and good service but is also generally more expensive than larger competitors.
AAON is Over-Earing
As one would expect, AAON’s market is highly cyclical. To illustrate this, after the 2008 peak non-residential construction spending fell 35% in only two years.
Figure 1: AAON’s Market Is Cyclical
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
On a nominal basis AAON’s end markets are now only 4% below the 2008 all-time highs. On an inflation adjusted basis, construction activity is also above average levels. Even though 55% of revenues are from replacement sales much of this is planned replacement and remodeling work which is cyclical in nature and will at least partially track the new construction market. Despite current earnings that are well above mid-cycle levels, AAON trades at 38x 2018E P/E. When construction activity eventually normalizes AAON’s sales and profits will fall.
Exactly how much AAON is over-earning is tough to say. If you assume that the 2006 -2016 average is a good proxy for normalized construction activity than the current market is about 20% above normalized levels. A 20% decrease in AAON’s end-markets should translate to at least a 15% decrease in sales and an approximately 25% decrease in operating profit or about $70mm annually assuming full maturity of the water-source heat pump business. However, to be conservative we assume a significantly higher level of normalized EBIT in our valuation.
AAON is Losing Market Share
AAON was one of the first to offer “semi-custom” HVAC units. Semi-custom systems provide customers the ability to modify certain aspects of the product without the time and expense of a fully built-to-order unit. According to people I spoke with in the industry, for many years AAON was the leader in the semi-custom space. This allowed AAON to grow sales much faster than the overall HVAC market as semi-custom products gained acceptance.
However, these same industry contacts indicated that competitors have now caught up to AAON and now there are several providers of high-quality semi-custom units. After gaining share for many years the company’s market share (as they report it annually) began to fall in 2014. Simply comparing AAON’s sales to the overall market shows sales growth has been lagging the market for a couple years. This data appears to conform what industry contacts were saying and suggests that AAON is indeed losing share.
Figure 2: AAON Sales vs. Total End Market
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
New Market Entry
AAON recently expanded into the water-source heat pump market. Management believes that in 2-3yrs they will capture 20% of the market at margins similar to the overall business. As show below this would imply annual cash flow of about $15mm per year which is what our valuation assumes. Management has also talked about expanding production of air handlers. Air handlers are a large, mature market that is served by large and power competitors such as United Technologies and Ingersoll-Rand. This expansion would cost at least $75mm and take 3 years. Our analysis assumes any investment in the air handler business is value-neutral. Our research indicated that these new markets are fairly mature with well established relationships. As such, AAON will likely be able to gain some share but is unlikely to materially surpass expectations.
Figure 3: Water-Source Heat Pump Business
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
Fair Value is 50% Below the Current Price
In 2017, AAON’s total adjusted operating profit was about $80mm. For a cyclical business such as this it would be generous to assume that this is a “mid-cycle” earnings level. We then assume a 2% long-term growth rate due to slow growth in the overall market. At an 9% cost of capital this yields a fair value of $19/share or about 50% below the current price.
Figure 4: Valuation
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
Shares Are Over-Valued Even in a Best Case Scenario
For a ‘best-case’ scenario, we assume non-residential construction is no longer cyclical and rather will continue to grow at 5% per year for the foreseeable future. We also assume that AAON is not losing share, but rather will grows sales 4% faster than the market. As shown below, even in this best-case scenario shares are slightly over-valued.
Figure 5: Best Case Scenario Valuation
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)
Key Risks
Infrastructure Spending – AAON could benefit from an increase in federal spending on infrastructure. While most of AAON’s business is related to private construction, approximately 33% of sales are from healthcare and education. Its important to note that the infrastructure spending proposed by the current administration does not appear to be focused on healthcare or education. However even if healthcare and education construction increased 20% from government stimulus this would imply AAON sales would increase 7% and thus wouldn’t invalidate the thesis. Furthermore, during the prior period of government infrastructure spending (2008 and 2009) AAON’s sales did not outperform the market. Given the stock’s valuation, we are comfortable with this risk.
Better Performance of New Products – It is possible that either the recent expansion into water-source heat pumps or possible future expansions of air handlers performs better than we are expecting. We’ve assumed AAON captures 20% share in pumps in 2-3yrs which seems fairly conservative. Both markets are also mature and have strong incumbent competitors. These segments are also small relative to the core HVAC business and as such even if performance is in fact better than expected it would not invalidate the thesis.
Conclusion
To anticipate some questions / pushback: I’m not really sure why AAON trades at this valuation (although earning should rise and thus the multiple should fall as the pump business matures). There is also no great catalyst except from lower future earnings from lower market share and weaker end markets. That said, you’re shorting an easy to understand business with limited upside that has some competitve issues at pretty crazy valuation where earnings are cyclical and likely to fall in the future.
I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.
Catalyst
lower future earnings from lower market share and weaker end markets