ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC ALGN S
March 19, 2015 - 3:29pm EST by
Affton1
2015 2016
Price: 58.29 EPS 1.70 2.18
Shares Out. (in M): 82 P/E 34 27
Market Cap (in $M): 4,779 P/FCF 0 0
Net Debt (in $M): 603 EBIT 178 238
TEV ($): 4,177 TEV/EBIT 23 18
Borrow Cost: General Collateral

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  • Orthodontics
  • Medical Devices
  • Patents
  • Product concentration
  • Deteriorating Fundamentals
  • Competitive Threats
  • Insider selling
  • horrible mistake
 

Description

 

 

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Near Term:

·         Align fails to meet its 15-25% long-term revenue growth target in 2015 and beyond

·         Align does not show margin improvement as 2015 progresses causing earnings estimates to decline materially

·         ClearCorrect continues to take market share

 

Medium to Long-term

·         Patents are rolling off and Danaher and others enter the market in 2017 and beyond

 

 

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    Description

     

     

    I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
    I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

    Catalyst

    Near Term:

    ·         Align fails to meet its 15-25% long-term revenue growth target in 2015 and beyond

    ·         Align does not show margin improvement as 2015 progresses causing earnings estimates to decline materially

    ·         ClearCorrect continues to take market share

     

    Medium to Long-term

    ·         Patents are rolling off and Danaher and others enter the market in 2017 and beyond

     

     

    Messages


    SubjectUpdate?
    Entry02/07/2016 09:09 AM
    MemberMSLM28

    Affton1 - any changes to your thesis here?  Thanks in advance 


    SubjectAnyone following?
    Entry10/27/2017 11:44 AM
    Membermaggie1002

    Aside from the fact that this is overbought at an RSI exceeding 90 and quite expensive in a market enamored with growth at any price, anyone following and have a perspective about competitive alternatives that could encroach more against Invisalign?  Wonder why smart guys at Danaher exited at a much lower price.


    SubjectRe: Anyone following?
    Entry10/27/2017 12:08 PM
    MemberSwissBear

    From my checks with potential competitors, the patent risk appears real (for the first time).  It covers the design process and use of technology that has been a true differentiator for Align.   That being said, their ability to ramp in China and potentially come up with a better process and use thinner, new-age proprietary plastic composites cannot be discounted and may be a tailwind.  I also think SDC could become a growth driver in developed markets if they can manage the backlash from GPs.    I am not involved but have been watching the stock go up over 100% since i first took a look. 

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