2015 | 2016 | ||||||
Price: | 58.29 | EPS | 1.70 | 2.18 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 82 | P/E | 34 | 27 | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 4,779 | P/FCF | 0 | 0 | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 603 | EBIT | 178 | 238 | |||
TEV ($): | 4,177 | TEV/EBIT | 23 | 18 | |||
Borrow Cost: | General Collateral |
Near Term:
· Align fails to meet its 15-25% long-term revenue growth target in 2015 and beyond
· Align does not show margin improvement as 2015 progresses causing earnings estimates to decline materially
· ClearCorrect continues to take market share
Medium to Long-term
· Patents are rolling off and Danaher and others enter the market in 2017 and beyond
Subject | Update? |
Entry | 02/07/2016 09:09 AM |
Member | MSLM28 |
Affton1 - any changes to your thesis here? Thanks in advance | |
Subject | Anyone following? |
Entry | 10/27/2017 11:44 AM |
Member | maggie1002 |
Aside from the fact that this is overbought at an RSI exceeding 90 and quite expensive in a market enamored with growth at any price, anyone following and have a perspective about competitive alternatives that could encroach more against Invisalign? Wonder why smart guys at Danaher exited at a much lower price. | |
Subject | Re: Anyone following? |
Entry | 10/27/2017 12:08 PM |
Member | SwissBear |
From my checks with potential competitors, the patent risk appears real (for the first time). It covers the design process and use of technology that has been a true differentiator for Align. That being said, their ability to ramp in China and potentially come up with a better process and use thinner, new-age proprietary plastic composites cannot be discounted and may be a tailwind. I also think SDC could become a growth driver in developed markets if they can manage the backlash from GPs. I am not involved but have been watching the stock go up over 100% since i first took a look. |