|Shares Out. (in M):||82||P/E||34||27|
|Market Cap (in $M):||4,779||P/FCF||0||0|
|Net Debt (in $M):||603||EBIT||178||238|
|Borrow Cost:||General Collateral|
· Align fails to meet its 15-25% long-term revenue growth target in 2015 and beyond
· Align does not show margin improvement as 2015 progresses causing earnings estimates to decline materially
· ClearCorrect continues to take market share
Medium to Long-term
· Patents are rolling off and Danaher and others enter the market in 2017 and beyond
|Entry||02/07/2016 09:09 AM|
Affton1 - any changes to your thesis here? Thanks in advance
|Entry||10/27/2017 11:44 AM|
Aside from the fact that this is overbought at an RSI exceeding 90 and quite expensive in a market enamored with growth at any price, anyone following and have a perspective about competitive alternatives that could encroach more against Invisalign? Wonder why smart guys at Danaher exited at a much lower price.
|Subject||Re: Anyone following?|
|Entry||10/27/2017 12:08 PM|
From my checks with potential competitors, the patent risk appears real (for the first time). It covers the design process and use of technology that has been a true differentiator for Align. That being said, their ability to ramp in China and potentially come up with a better process and use thinner, new-age proprietary plastic composites cannot be discounted and may be a tailwind. I also think SDC could become a growth driver in developed markets if they can manage the backlash from GPs. I am not involved but have been watching the stock go up over 100% since i first took a look.