|Shares Out. (in M):||45||P/E||10.5x||0.0x|
|Market Cap (in M):||114||P/FCF||9.8x||0.0x|
|Net Debt (in M):||-41||EBIT||0||0|
|Entry||05/12/2010 12:11 PM|
Thanks for the comments
on UK pricing pressure, and I'm sure this may not be a good analogy, but you might hope that over time any sort of pricing pressure would have the effect of consolidating the moms and pops into the larger players ala what's happened with Lincare Holdings (LNCR) here in the US. Course, I could be just dreaming, but at this valuation you would think they could stand some things to not go perfect for the stock to work anyway (course, as an owner I'm going to see it that way).
Course, it isn't at $1.20 anymore either...
|Entry||05/12/2010 01:32 PM|
as with most of my ideas, I gave this a "6" on performance
|Entry||05/12/2010 01:47 PM|
my wording is misleading - on the BS, there is 41m USD or 27.6 lbs, depending on day used (appx May 5th per ahci EA release) of course
|Entry||05/17/2010 03:40 PM|
AHCI put some of the cash to work, buying a homecare biz in Ireland (HC). Cost 5.8m USD for a 50.1% share with put and call options on both sides for the rest (16.5m USD max subject to conditions). HC did 13.9m in USD sales, 0.4m profit. Ahci says it will be "earnings enhancing" and also suggested that the outsourcing trends in the acquired areas had more growth potential. My reaction was pretty subdued - it doesn't make that much dent in the current cash (not even with the free cash flow for the past 12 months) though it leaves them on the hook for more, but you would hope this company would still consider buybacks/dividends. I mean, they could easily authorize a $5m USD buyback with no trouble at all....
|Entry||05/18/2010 10:39 AM|
company just announced an authorization for a 10m buyback
|Subject||RE: latest quarter|
|Entry||08/04/2010 12:33 PM|
I don't have a whole lot to add to what you suggested - agree that wildcard is contract pricing pressure, but the valuation seems to suggest declining revenue vs. any growth. Like you suggested, I thought the quarter was mostly ok but with some negatives. From what I see:
36.9m net cash (24.5 lbs) or 82c a share
Buyback of 1.1m shares for 2.8m
Operating growth, sans acquisitions and fx, up double digits
Management sounds optimistic on Ireland acquisition
Optimistic they can expand continuing care from 1/2 of branches
Flat Hospital revenue (seems stable now)
Sees Homecare as 5 to 10% top line grower over 2-3 years at least (down from 10 to 15%)
Suggestion of eventual pricing pressure from local government authorities (see above)
Nursing homes not likely to see any short-term improvement (6.4% of revenue)
They still sound set on doing acquisitions.
I like the pace of the buyback and take this as a really good sign that management sees the same things that I am seeing. If they were that pessimistic on the future, I'm not sure of the logic of either buybacks or acquisitions.
-at latest $2.36, 10.8m in free cash or a 15% yield, though there were acquisition related charges and revenue in Q3.
I don't plan to alter my position size. I would admit I wish I was there in the UK to better understand future bugetary conditions, and you get the feeling that it is going to take a while for this to work.
|Subject||RE: RE: RE: RE: latest quarter|
|Entry||10/05/2010 11:18 AM|
i'd be interested! esp. any conclusions
|Subject||RE: Author Exit Recommendation|
|Entry||10/18/2010 03:59 PM|
no great shakes - I still think stock is cheap (andreas did a better job here than I did) but felt increasingly like this position - business - is outside the realm of the usual things I feel comfortable with, especially since it reminded me so much of Lincare Holdings which has always been buffeted by repeated reductions in remibursement rates. So many things here seem to me to be suggested future actions - cash flow, the consolidation of suppliers, the guess that many cuts won't reach AHCI - but the one thing that seems definite is the 25% reduction in revenue from federal sources (and I have no idea if that number is even appropriate) and that is the reason for my unease, especially compared to my dumb retailers.
Course, the company would still make a likely takeover target, but I'm not going to hold positions for that reason alone.
|Subject||RE: RE: RE: Author Exit Recommendation|
|Entry||08/30/2011 02:17 PM|
thanks for the kind words - even if I didn't stay in ahci myself
if you have time, please consider looking at esl.to. It is my largest position, and
|Subject||RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Author Exit Recommendation|
|Entry||08/30/2011 04:09 PM|
Paul...would you mind very briefly layout out how you get to your 16% FCF yield. I assume you're backing cash/shr out of the share price...