APTEVO THERAPEUTICS INC APVO
December 29, 2016 - 1:55pm EST by
googie974
2016 2017
Price: 2.20 EPS 0 0
Shares Out. (in M): 20 P/E 0 0
Market Cap (in $M): 45 P/FCF 0 0
Net Debt (in $M): -65 EBIT 0 0
TEV (in $M): 0 TEV/EBIT 0 0

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Description

Aptevo Therapeutics is a nano-cap, cash-burning bio-tech spun from profitable billion dollar bio-defense
company Emergent Biosolutions (ticker EBS) on August 1st, 2016. Cash-burning bio-techs are perhaps
not for grandma’s account, but Aptevo is remarkably cheap for the more speculative investor. Trading
at $2.20, Aptevo was spun with $65 million ($3.25 a share) in cash and promised cash from the parent
net of debt that they have since taken on. Furthermore, three profitable drugs (Winrho, HepaGam B,
and Varizig) requiring little or no further investment were spun with Aptevo that the Aptevo CEO notes
are worth 2 times sales or about $3.50 a share. A fourth approved drug, Ixinity, began ramping sales in
2015 and has potential to grow to as much as $40 million in sales for a valuation at 2 times sales of $4 a
share if the company can work past current bulk production problems. Aptevo’s share price of $2.20
implies that the cash burning bi-specific drug candidate platform, Adaptir, has tremendous negative
value. Emergent Biosolutions acquired the Adaptir technology in 2010 for $78 million ($3.90 a share)
plus a contingent value right with a max value of $38.7 million. The pro-forma R&D spend since then
has been substantial. In 2014 & 2015, for example, the R&D spend on Adaptir and Adaptir drug
candidates totaled about $30 million and $20 million respectively for a total of $50 million ($2.50 a
share). The total investment in Adaptir and Adaptir drug candidates including the acquisition price and
R&D spend is perhaps in the $8 to $10 a share range.
 
It’s possible that Adaptir will just burn cash while producing little of value and Aptevo is definitely a
speculative investment. It doesn’t appear that Aptevo was spun exclusively to relieve the profitable
parent of the earnings drag, however. Significant assets including cash and profitable drugs were spun
with it and the Aptevo CEO sat on the Emergent Biosolutions board since 2010. He knew what he was
getting into. Further, the Chairman of the board owns 13.7% of the company and the officers and
directors are rather generously incentivized with options while drawing reasonable salaries. Also
encouraging is that a couple of successful investors have taken significant positions. John Petry, a
special situations investor formerly with Gotham Capital Management has taken an 8.4% position
through Sessa Capital Management. Perceptive Advisors, a very successful life sciences fund run by
biotech expert Joseph Edelman also bought nearly 5% of the company. Finally, the technicals have
turned positive recently after publication of phase 2 results showing effectiveness of their leukemia drug
drove a nearly 4 million share trading day. Perhaps Aptevo’s share price has already seen its bottom.
 
Emergent Biosolutions was a bio-defense company whose primary product was an anthrax vaccine. The
company diversified into bio-tech with a pair of acquistions. The Adaptir technology came with the $78
million (net of $19 million cash) plus CVR acquisition of Trubion in 2010. Aptevo’s four commercial
products came with the $222 million acquisitions of Cangene in February, 2014 although Cangene also
contributed bio-defense assets that stayed with the parent. The rationale for the spinoff is that both the
bio-defense and bio-tech businesses have opportunities that require capital. The shareholder base for a
profitable bio-defense and a cash-eating bio-tech are quite different. Separating them allows each to
raise capital from appropriate sources. Spinning rather than selling lets shareholders make up their own
mind whether they want to sell or hold the bio-tech assets. Most shareholders want to monetize but
the Aptevo COB perhaps wanted the option to continue to own. Aptevo intends to raise cash through
partnering individual drug candidates or perhaps the entire Adaptir platform with pharmaceutical
companies. The CEO also notes that they have worldwide rights to Ixinity and are open to partnering it
(perhaps by geography). The CEO expects partnering announcements and new drug candidates moving
into the clinic in the second half of 2017.He speculates in the Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference in
New York on November 30th that those announcements along with results from their two drugs
currently in the clinic will drive the stock price up “where it belongs”. He notes that where it belongs is
at least three times higher than the 40-45 million market cap it was trading at on that day.
 
Aptevo could clearly be liquidated for much more than the current trading price. The risk is that the
company intends to burn all their cash on Adaptir development. Even further, they will borrow against
the cash flow of their commercial drugs and burn through that too. So there is a risk that the stock
winds up at zero and one should consider this when sizing a position. Partnering drug candidates or
even the entire Adaptir platform is necessary for this company burning $50 million a year to continue to
operate. So prospects for partnering is perhaps the most important factor as to whether the stock
fizzles to zero or becomes a multi-bagger.
 
Bispecific antibodies recognize two different epitopes and are an emerging area in cancer
immunotherapy. The bispecific binds to a target that is on a tumor cell but not healthy cells. The
second antibody may activate a T-cell to attack the cancerous cell. Bispecifics have resulted in highly
potent antibodies. There are about 40 different bispecific platforms and there’s been a great number of
partnerships recently between pharmaceutical companies and biotechs. Recent partnering includes:
Novartis partnered with Xencor in June 2016, Monoclonal antibody company Kymab Limited partnered
with bispecific antibody company EpimAb Biotherapeutics in October, 2016, Japan-based Ono
Pharmaceuticals partnered with Netherlands based bispecific company Merus in April 2014, J&J signed
up with MacroGenics in Dec 2014 and expanded the partnership in May 2016. Aptevo’s chief scientist
notes that manufacturability is a key distinguishing advantage of Adaptir along with improved stability
and potency compared with other bispecifics. Aptevo’s two clinical bispecific candidates have shown
some effectiveness against prostate cancer and leukemia. The prostate cancer drug is already partnered
and the leukemia candidate will be seeking a partner following publication of phase II trials. The
business plan to finance operations by partnering seems plausible.
 
The company has had its problems recently. Their prostate cancer trials had to be modified after anti-
drug antibodies developed in many patients. The modified trial requiring continuous infusion, 24 hours
a day, seven days a week is ongoing. But the partner modified the agreement leaving more of the
financial risk with Aptevo. Also troublesome is the manufacturing problem with Ixinity. This drug whose
sales were ramping nicely in 2016 is now going out of production. The company’s proposed temporary
solution to the bulk manufacturing problem was rejected by the FDA. Aptevo believes they understand
the root cause and hope to be back in production soon but there’s definitely risk here. Despite the
problems I own a small position. If the $8 to $10 a share the company has invested in Adaptir turns out
to be worth just $2 or $3 rather than the negative value implied by the stock price, investors stand to
make multiples.
 

 

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Partnering agreements in 2017

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