|Shares Out. (in M):||88||P/E||0.0x||0.0x|
|Market Cap (in M):||587||P/FCF||0.0x||0.0x|
|Net Debt (in M):||-244||EBIT||0||0|
10-10 276 -4.7%
|Entry||11/06/2010 11:50 AM|
not sure of fomatting here - I put line spaces in and it wouldn't take...
|Subject||RE: how cheap|
|Entry||11/08/2010 08:30 AM|
not much - that's a fair way to look at it long-term if the business does as it did the previous 10 years. Course, that's a big if - the store base, for example, is already here, and thus CapEx in theory ought to trail down over time barring an exiciting new concept. So if the company did as well as it had previously, more FCF should be generated.
|Entry||11/08/2010 01:37 PM|
to be frank, I don't consider it or worry about it. If the comps are strong then cotton isn't an issue. If comps are weak, then cotton isn't an issue. Given that I have no opinion on why cotton is priced where it is, I don't give it much worry or thought, especially since it is a variable that hits all retailers, not just this one.
|Entry||11/08/2010 01:41 PM|
thank goodness they are trending around 4 - given the history of ratings before on my ideas, that's a mighty good sign!
|Subject||2Q Earnings in a Dead Wrong Idea|
|Entry||02/05/2011 05:25 PM|
my writeup, as I continue to hold the shares, but there is absolutely positively no catalyst right now:
2-5-11, $5.70, 503-243, 1.4x, $2.9 in cash
So much for a turn. Management was clearly optimistic about the business which resulted in big markdowns in December when sales did not come thru as expected. Despite a grim forecast, they are keeping a happy tone about better full-priced selling, and Fabricant (Pres) is just a few months into the job. They are doing the things you want to see in a potential turnarount - closing PH8, closing some money losing BEBE stores, restricting expansion, watching costs, buying shares. It just hasn't come with sales improvement, but as long as they remain cash flow positive and have this balance sheet I'll be patient for now.
Sans PH8, sales up 3% with flat comps
Gross margin pressure from higher mark-downs
SAG was worse due to legal and employment costs with 1m in impairment
Higher tax rate
2.5m in operating income vs. 9.9 last year
Sales up 1% with comps down 2.3%
Earnings of 2m vs. 5.7m ly
Closed all rest of Ph8 stores; now with 253 stores
Opened 2 bebe stores; sees 2 more though one is conversion with 7 closures; -2% sqft decrease for year
Sees 23m d/a for year with under 20m CapEx
Q3 comps seen negative msd; Jan was down big in markdown sales, full price down marginally which basically means they didn't mark down as much
Sees Loss of 2 to 6c with 84m shares vs. 1c loss at 87m shares
Sees another big drop in gross margins
Inventory up mid to high teens vs. -5.4 last year - WHY?? Based on hope for better sales that didn't happen and they will discount more if they need to again
Cautiously optimistic about full-priced selling
Bot 13m in shares ytd
Inventory up 9% vs. last year on sqft basis
They source 70% in China, 23-24% domestically
|Subject||some life here|
|Entry||08/26/2011 09:24 AM|
Q4 was just reported - ending June - and things were looking up. some highlights:
*operating margins up despite pressure from sourcing
*comps in mid single right now
*cash is $3 a share net, a bit less than half of cap
*not much profit change seen in Q1 despite comp increase but they could be a bit conservative
Course, they do have NorthEast stores, and you never know about hurricane disruptions and other short-term events, but you get the sense from this report that Emilia Fabricant has righted the ship and things are up looking up, though women's apparel does seem to be on upswing in the moment. Plus, obviously you've got the BS to tide you over if there are more bumps.
I continue to hold my shares here.
|Entry||11/04/2011 09:11 PM|
more life - ending in Sep - important factoids:
* comps up 7% though all transactions
*operating margins up as they are getting SGA leverage
*inventory is well controlled
*beat the forecast for 1c but only did 3c
*Oct was apparently really strong, and they are sounding pretty optimistic
As noted, the ship appears righted and the CFO said that source cost issues shouldn't be a problem rest of of fiscal. That means, hopefully, that BEBE can start to put both comps, GM, and SGA together and start to generate some meaningful profits.
Course, ongoing concern is lack of a plan for all the cash. The CFO a few months ago referenced HOTT's decision to pay a dividend and then going back down as evidence that all dividends are bad (my interpretation) which makes me shake my head, but the company has reason to be cautious with any cash plans given the type business model this is.
Still, all this said, BEBE is looking better these days - for now.
|Subject||RE: Q1 update|
|Entry||11/04/2011 09:12 PM|
typo = comp up 7% but flat trans