B/E AEROSPACE INC BEAV
July 12, 2016 - 4:40pm EST by
nantembo629
2016 2017
Price: 46.00 EPS 3.26 3.70
Shares Out. (in M): 101 P/E 14.1 12.4
Market Cap (in $M): 4,664 P/FCF 18.0 12.8
Net Debt (in $M): 1,959 EBIT 516 555
TEV ($): 6,623 TEV/EBIT 12.8 11.9

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Description

Overview:
BE Aerospace (BEAV) is an excellent company that is trading at a depressed valuation due to global macro fears. The
stock is discounting the current lull in commercial OE deliveries and weaker demand in the business jet market, but
it is not yet discounting the large increase in commercial OE deliveries that will occur in the next couple of years.
Airlines are profitable and global air traffic continues to grow. Large industry and company backlogs should be
relatively safe, barring a major recession or terrorist attack. We see the stock trading at over a 9% free cash flow
yield on 2018 and think this is an attractive opportunity to own a very high-quality business.
 
Company Overview:
BEAV is the market leader in highly consolidated industry of providing cabin interior products for commercial and
business jets with 50% market share and growing. The company manufactures such products as seats (all classes),
food and beverage prep/storage equipment, modular lavatory/galley systems, oxygen storage/distribution/delivery
systems, protective breathing equipment, and lighting products.
 
The company reports two segments: Commercial Aerospace (~80% of rev) and Business Jets (~20% of revenue). For
some reason, the company also includes commercial Super First Class seats in the Business Jet segment (think first
class cabins on Emirates Air) and this has been a big driver. ~45% of the Business Jet segment revenue (~10% of
company revenue) is derived from actual OE biz jets where demand has been, and continues to be, weak.
 
~40% of revenue (with higher contribution margins) is derived from the aftermarket. A portion of aftermarket
revenue is spares (i.e. broken seats) and from regulatory driven demand(changes in standards, etc.). Another
portion is refurbishment (cabin overhauls), which is more discretionary in nature and is driven by modernizing older
planes and b the desire to match interiors of newer planes in the fleet. Larger installed base of planes should drive
acceleration of aftermarket demand.
 
In terms of customers, the vast majority of sales are made to plane owners, not OEM’s (i.e. American Airlines will
order seating, food prep equip, etc. from BEAV and it will be installed at OEM factory right before delivery). ~80%
of total revenue is derived directly from airlines, leasing co’s and MRO (Maintenance Repair Operations) providers.
The main exception to this is the SFE program (see below).
 
The Seller Furnished Equipment (SFE) program is starting to provide additional growth to the company. The
company has been capitalizing much of the program costs and is now starting to really ramp up. Select programs
include: exclusive manufacturer of modular Lavatories for 737 (NG and MAX), lighting systems on 737, oxygen
systems on 787 and 747, and galley systems and oxygen system on A350 XWB.
 
Industry:
The industry has very high barriers to entry including: regulatory (i.e. FAA standards and licensing requirements),
large installed base, broad product line/scale, patents. In terms of competition there are a number of competitors
in each individual categorybut only a couple that can provide products across the board (really only BEAV and
Zodiac). The industry has been very rational over time in terms of not aggressively using price in order to gain
volumes in lower periods of demand.
 
Investment Considerations/Drivers
Obviously the main driver for the company is commercial OE deliveries. However, wide-body planes require up to
6-10x (average ~6-7x) the dollar value of content vs. narrow body. Wide-body planes may have 3-4x number of
seats, multiple classes and also may have multiple food and beverage services. Based on the content per plane and
the number of annual aircraft deliveries, it is estimated that wide body aircraft represent ~70% of BEAV’s revenue
although they only account for ~25% of industry deliveries.
 
Wide-body delivery growth rapidly decelerated this past year and will likely be flat to down in 2016 before ramping
up again in 2017+. Much of this lull in deliveries is due to Boeing and Airbus transitioning to newer aircraft models.
Deliveries of wide-body aircraft should then grow at mid-to-high single-digit growth rates for the next few years.
 
BEAV is just exiting a large investment cycle and now have excess capacity going into this demand ramp, which
should lead to high incremental margins over the next few years. FCF conversion (from net income) is currently
~75% but is moving towards 100% over the next year.
 
Valuation:
The valuation of BEAV today looks reasonable on 2016 numbers (~14x EPS) but is giving no credit to the growth
outlook of the next 4-5 years and is overly discounting risks of the aerospace cycle. Historically, BEAV has traded
between 12.5x and 17.5x forward EPS (an average of ~15-16x).
 
The stock becomes very compelling on a free cash flow basis when looking forward a year or two. In 2018, the
company should generate ~$4.25/share in FCF. The company is buying back shares and leverage should fall below
the companys 2.5x target in the next year providing them with additional firepower.
 
By placing a 15x FCF multiple (~6.7% levered yield) on 2018 numbers, we come up with a valuation (a year or two
out) of $63.75/share. Along with a 1.8% dividend yield, this provides over a 40% return from todays share price.
 
Risks
-Discretionary nature of purchases (especially retrofit)
-Very dependent on health of airlines and passenger revenue miles
-Later in cycle but majority of costs are variable
 

 

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

- earnings  ramp in 2017

- announcements on expansion of SFE program

    sort by    

    Description

    Overview:
    BE Aerospace (BEAV) is an excellent company that is trading at a depressed valuation due to global macro fears. The
    stock is discounting the current lull in commercial OE deliveries and weaker demand in the business jet market, but
    it is not yet discounting the large increase in commercial OE deliveries that will occur in the next couple of years.
    Airlines are profitable and global air traffic continues to grow. Large industry and company backlogs should be
    relatively safe, barring a major recession or terrorist attack. We see the stock trading at over a 9% free cash flow
    yield on 2018 and think this is an attractive opportunity to own a very high-quality business.
     
    Company Overview:
    BEAV is the market leader in highly consolidated industry of providing cabin interior products for commercial and
    business jets with 50% market share and growing. The company manufactures such products as seats (all classes),
    food and beverage prep/storage equipment, modular lavatory/galley systems, oxygen storage/distribution/delivery
    systems, protective breathing equipment, and lighting products.
     
    The company reports two segments: Commercial Aerospace (~80% of rev) and Business Jets (~20% of revenue). For
    some reason, the company also includes commercial Super First Class seats in the Business Jet segment (think first
    class cabins on Emirates Air) and this has been a big driver. ~45% of the Business Jet segment revenue (~10% of
    company revenue) is derived from actual OE biz jets where demand has been, and continues to be, weak.
     
    ~40% of revenue (with higher contribution margins) is derived from the aftermarket. A portion of aftermarket
    revenue is spares (i.e. broken seats) and from regulatory driven demand(changes in standards, etc.). Another
    portion is refurbishment (cabin overhauls), which is more discretionary in nature and is driven by modernizing older
    planes and b the desire to match interiors of newer planes in the fleet. Larger installed base of planes should drive
    acceleration of aftermarket demand.
     
    In terms of customers, the vast majority of sales are made to plane owners, not OEM’s (i.e. American Airlines will
    order seating, food prep equip, etc. from BEAV and it will be installed at OEM factory right before delivery). ~80%
    of total revenue is derived directly from airlines, leasing co’s and MRO (Maintenance Repair Operations) providers.
    The main exception to this is the SFE program (see below).
     
    The Seller Furnished Equipment (SFE) program is starting to provide additional growth to the company. The
    company has been capitalizing much of the program costs and is now starting to really ramp up. Select programs
    include: exclusive manufacturer of modular Lavatories for 737 (NG and MAX), lighting systems on 737, oxygen
    systems on 787 and 747, and galley systems and oxygen system on A350 XWB.
     
    Industry:
    The industry has very high barriers to entry including: regulatory (i.e. FAA standards and licensing requirements),
    large installed base, broad product line/scale, patents. In terms of competition there are a number of competitors
    in each individual categorybut only a couple that can provide products across the board (really only BEAV and
    Zodiac). The industry has been very rational over time in terms of not aggressively using price in order to gain
    volumes in lower periods of demand.
     
    Investment Considerations/Drivers
    Obviously the main driver for the company is commercial OE deliveries. However, wide-body planes require up to
    6-10x (average ~6-7x) the dollar value of content vs. narrow body. Wide-body planes may have 3-4x number of
    seats, multiple classes and also may have multiple food and beverage services. Based on the content per plane and
    the number of annual aircraft deliveries, it is estimated that wide body aircraft represent ~70% of BEAV’s revenue
    although they only account for ~25% of industry deliveries.
     
    Wide-body delivery growth rapidly decelerated this past year and will likely be flat to down in 2016 before ramping
    up again in 2017+. Much of this lull in deliveries is due to Boeing and Airbus transitioning to newer aircraft models.
    Deliveries of wide-body aircraft should then grow at mid-to-high single-digit growth rates for the next few years.
     
    BEAV is just exiting a large investment cycle and now have excess capacity going into this demand ramp, which
    should lead to high incremental margins over the next few years. FCF conversion (from net income) is currently
    ~75% but is moving towards 100% over the next year.
     
    Valuation:
    The valuation of BEAV today looks reasonable on 2016 numbers (~14x EPS) but is giving no credit to the growth
    outlook of the next 4-5 years and is overly discounting risks of the aerospace cycle. Historically, BEAV has traded
    between 12.5x and 17.5x forward EPS (an average of ~15-16x).
     
    The stock becomes very compelling on a free cash flow basis when looking forward a year or two. In 2018, the
    company should generate ~$4.25/share in FCF. The company is buying back shares and leverage should fall below
    the companys 2.5x target in the next year providing them with additional firepower.
     
    By placing a 15x FCF multiple (~6.7% levered yield) on 2018 numbers, we come up with a valuation (a year or two
    out) of $63.75/share. Along with a 1.8% dividend yield, this provides over a 40% return from todays share price.
     
    Risks
    -Discretionary nature of purchases (especially retrofit)
    -Very dependent on health of airlines and passenger revenue miles
    -Later in cycle but majority of costs are variable
     

     

    I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
    I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

    Catalyst

    - earnings  ramp in 2017

    - announcements on expansion of SFE program

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