|Shares Out. (in M):||62||P/E||53.1x||38.8x|
|Market Cap (in $M):||987||P/FCF||133.1x||22.2x|
|Net Debt (in $M):||237||EBIT||51||59|
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I think Boulder Brands (BDBD) is a good short over the next 6-9 months, as the company laps comps associated with its July 2012 acquisition of gluten-free food producer Udi’s and it finds itself increasingly tied to a potential diet fad while its core business continues fading (as has been the case over the past 15 months). BDBD has been written up long on VIC a couple times, most recently by jak in December 2010 (when the stock was trading as Smart Balance for $3.66 per share). It was a great call, and the stock has run to $16, primarily due to the company’s acquisitions of gluten-free food producers Glutino and Udi’s.
BDBD is a consumer food products company that manufactures/markets buttery sprays, sticks, sprays, cooking oil, peanut butter, etc., under the "Smart Balance" brand (segmented into what the company calls its "Smart Balance" segment); it also manufactures/markets gluten-free breads, pizzas, and other snack foods under the "Udi's" and "Glutino" brands and plant-based (vegan) spreads, butters, soy milks, and dressings under the "Bestlife" brand (all of which fall into its "Natural" segment).
|Smart Balance sales growth (y/y)||+4.3%||-1.1%||-9.9%||-12.0%||-15.9%||-12.3%|
|FYE 12/31; $M||2010A||2011A||2012A||2013E||2014E||2015E||2016E|
|Op. Income (adj)||$15.4||$29.6||$32.8||$49.8||$58.7||$65.8||$67.3|
|EV / Sales||1.3x||1.5x||2.7x||2.7x||2.4x||2.2x||2.1x|
|EV / EBITDA||9.3x||9.7x||17.7x||15.5x||13.2x||12.0x||11.7x|
|P / E||16.0x||13.7x||51.6x||54.0x||39.1x||34.3x||34.0x|
|P / B||0.9x||1.0x||2.3x||2.8x||2.6x||2.4x||2.2x|
|P / TB||n/m||n/m||n/m||n/m||n/m||n/m||n/m|
|P / FCF||16.3x||13.7x||51.0x||143.9x||24.9x||22.5x||22.1x|
|EV / uFCF||16.3x||16.1x||42.5x||63.8x||24.3x||22.1x||21.3x|
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