BROOKFIELD RESIDENTIAL PPTYS BRP
June 03, 2011 - 11:55am EST by
clark0225
2011 2012
Price: 10.20 EPS 86c 90c
Shares Out. (in M): 101 P/E 11.9x 11.3x
Market Cap (in M): 1,034 P/FCF 8.5x 8.5x
Net Debt (in M): 1,328 EBIT 160 170
TEV: 2,363 TEV/EBIT 15x 14x

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Description

Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP) Long Recommendation

Price

$10.20

 

Book Value

 

 

FD Shares

101

 

    2012E

$10.90

0.9 x

Market Cap

1,034

 

    2011E

$10.00

1.0 x

 

 

 

    2010

$9.14

1.1 x

Cash

12

 

 

 

 

Debt

1,340

 

EPS1

 

 

Prefs

2

 

    2012E

$0.90

11.3 x

EV

2,363

 

    2011E

$0.86

11.9 x

 

 

 

    2010

$0.93

11.0 x

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 - EPS is adjusted for post merger capital structure and a normalized tax rate of 30%. 

 

Brookfield Residential Properties is the newly formed combination of Brookfield Homes (formerly BHS) and Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) residential assets.  The merger between BHS and BPO Residential was completed in March of this year with BHS shareholders receiving 49.1% of BRP's equity and BPO receiving 50.7% (preferred shares captured the remaining 0.2%). 

To the new entity, BHS contributed its assets which consist of entitled residential developments in California and Washington DC - BPO Residential contributed entitled residential developments in Canada (primarily Calgary) and also in Texas and Colorado.

The combined Brookfield Residential has over $2.5 billion in assets, 55% of which are in the U.S. and 45% are in Canada. 

BRP is trading for just over 1x book value today, a significant discount to publicly traded homebuilders which trade at over 1.3x book.  There is another more important distinction between BRP and other publicly traded homebuilders, BRP actually makes money, a lot of money.  While the U.S. business is roughly breakeven, the Canadian assets are producing steady profits and cash flow. 

BRP represents an attractive absolute and relative valuation with a compelling near term catalyst and what amounts to a free option on a long term recovery in housing in the U.S.

Valuation:

                Current Price                        $10.20

                Base Case                            $13.00

                Best Case                            $20.00

                Low Case                             $8.00

 

Investment Positives:

                Complicated transaction obfuscates the idea creating a "hidden gem"

                Lack of clear financials masks the value created by the combination

                Compelling valuation with cash flow generation while you wait to monetize U.S. assets

                Smart owner with Brookfield Asset Management controlling over 2/3s of BRP

Investment Risks:

                BRP is highly levered with 58% debt to capital ($500m of which is owned by BPO)

                Severe downturn in new home starts in the U.S. would pressure profitability in Canada

                There isn't much public float with Brookfield Asset Management owning over 2/3s of BRP

Catalysts:

June 10th, 2011 - Brookfield Office Properties shareholders received rights to purchase BRP stock at $10.00 per share (described in more detail below).  Those rights expire on the 10th, which should remove an overhang on the trading of BRP.

Analyst coverage - BRP is the only $1 billion market cap homebuilder without any analyst coverage

Earnings releases - there is no quarterly data on the combined company yet as BPO Residential was private.  Through the end of the year, earnings power will become apparent and analysts will be able to screen for and easily understand BRP.

 

 

Below is a description of Brookfield Homes and BPO Residential with summary financials as well as the consolidated financials.  The document used to source the numbers is the BPO rights offering prospectus filed with the SEC on May 5, 2011.

Brookfield Homes

Brookfield Homes contributed 8,200 lots in Northern California, 4,700 lots in LA and 8,700 in San Diego and 4,700 lots in Washington D.C.  Historically, BHS built and sold upwards of 1,000 homes per year.  During the boom, BHS sold as many as 1,600 homes in a year.  Today they are selling approximately 600 homes per year.  To scale those volumes financially, on average BHS would make around $120 or $150 million in EBITDA selling about 1,000 homes.  In the boom, BHS was making upwards of $300 million in EBITDA.  During the bust, they were in a loss position of about $35 million.  Today, they hare operating basically at breakeven after having right sized the G&A structure of the business.

Financials are below:

Income Statement

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

             

Housing

292

340

415

541

784

1,074

Land

47

36

34

42

88

140

Total

339

376

449

583

872

1,214

             

Cost of Sales

284

354

416

481

617

815

Gross Profit

55

22

33

102

255

399

             

Impairments

0

24

115

88

10

0

SG&A

56

52

69

69

59

90

             

Operating Income

(1)

(54)

(151)

(55)

186

309

             

Adj Operating Income

(1)

(30)

(36)

33

196

309

 

Cash flows have been a different story.  During the boom, BHS spent all excess cash flow to buy and entitle new parcels.  As things began to fall apart in 2007, BHS pulled back on new land purchases and entitlements, and thus sales became completely cash generative and cash flows have been very positive.

Going forward, my understanding is that management intends repay debt as a first priority, then to selectively invest in entitlement projects which they believe have 20%+ IRRs over two to three years.  In the U.S., building homes is not the priority for cash.

BPO Residential

BPO Residential contributed 28,900 lots in Calgary, 17,900 lots in Edmonton, 9,500 lots in Toronto, 14,800 lots in Austin and 10,700 lots in Denver.  All of the Canadian sites have homebuilding operations - the markets in the U.S. are not actively building homes.  Currently, the primary source of income for BPO Residential is lot sales in Alberta.  BPO Residential does build homes, but the sales of entitled lots are more significant both in terms of top and bottom lines.  House closings in Alberta and Toronto have been steady over time but have averaged about 900 units.  In 2009 the company closed on just 650 units and lot sales declined by about 25% in Canada which pushed operating income down to $100 million versus $200 million the prior year.  In 2010 lot sales in Alberta picked back up and operating income increased to $170 million, which is about where management believes it should stay in the current environment for energy.

Demand in Alberta has been driven by trade up to mid-priced to higher-priced homes, which is a wealth creation affect from the current boom in the so called Oil Sands in Alberta.

Financials are below:

Income Statement

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

           

Land

308

227

355

378

230

Housing

307

151

223

296

173

Total Revenue

615

378

578

674

403

           

CoGS

412

250

323

432

292

Gross Profit

203

128

255

242

111

           

SG&A

35

27

37

37

24

           

Operating Income

168

101

218

205

87

           

Adj Operating Income

168

101

218

205

87

 

Cash flows from Canada have been positive, but have lagged operating income as the company has spent capital to buy and entitle land.  Going forward, I'm told that land purchases will not be a focus but that the company will continue to entitle parcels to meet demand and maintain earnings.  Net, Canada should be a major cash generator, which in turn will be used to pay down debt.

Brookfield Residential Properties Consolidated

Below are the combined financials from BHS and BPO Residential.  The numbers flow down to adjusted net income line which incorporates the new capital structure for BRP and backs out the capitalized interest expense running through the cost of goods line - that is meant to show the true "cash" flow through of sales, operating profits and cash interest in a given year.

Income Statement

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

           

Land

355

263

389

420

318

Housing

599

491

638

837

957

Total Revenue

954

754

1,027

1,257

1,275

           

CoGS

696

604

739

913

909

Gross Profit

258

150

288

344

366

           

SG&A

91

79

106

106

83

           

Operating Income

167

71

182

238

283

           

Impairments

0

(7)

(112)

(88)

(10)

Unconsol Affiliates

0

1

3

13

58

Imp of Uncon Aff

0

(13)

(38)

(15)

0

Other Income

22

16

(10)

4

18

           

Pre Tax Income

189

68

25

152

349

Income Taxes

59

3

(8)

(6)

116

Tax Rate

31%

4%

-32%

-4%

33%

           

Net Income (Reported)

130

65

33

158

233

Net Income (Adjusted)

94

       

Free Cash Flow

130

       
           

Adjusted EPS

$0.93

       

Adj FCF per Share

$1.28

       

Book Value

$9.14

       

 

Below are the cash flows for the business, which take into account the change in land and homes as either a use or source of cash.  Going forward I believe that land and homes will be a source of cash in Canada and a slight source of cash from the US, which implies free cash flow above net income.


Cash Flows

 
   

Reported Operating Income

 

Less: Title Transfer Margin (one time)

 

Operating Income

167

Plus: Interest (expensed but previously capitalized)

50

Less: Interest (cash paid)

(80)

Less: Taxes (est 30%)

(43)

Less: Pref Dividend

(0)

Plus: D Land Inventory

(18)

Plus: D House Inventory

54

Cash Flow

130

   

Cash Balance

4

Project Debt

846

BAM Sr's

273

BAM Jr's

222

Pref Balance

2

Equity

926

ROE

10.1%

 

Competitive Landscape and Valuations

D.R. Horton - DHI

 

Lennar - LEN

   

MDC Holdings - MDC

 
                 

Price

$11.66

 

Price

$18.18

 

Price

$25.48

 

52 Wk Hi

$13.50

 

52 Wk Hi

$21.54

 

52 Wk Hi

$32.40

 

52 Wk Lo

$9.41

 

52 Wk Lo

$11.93

 

52 Wk Lo

$24.34

 
                 

FD shares

320.0

 

FD shares

194.9

 

FD shares

46.7

 

Mkt Cap

3,731.2

 

Mkt Cap

3,542.5

 

Mkt Cap

1,190.3

 
                 

Debt

(1,959.4)

 

Debt

(3,129.1)

 

Debt

(1,243.1)

 

Cash

772.7

 

Cash

1,014.0

 

Cash

1,455.1

 

Other (BV of Sub)

193.0

 

Other (BV Sub & Rialto)

1,180.0

 

Other (BV of Sub)

31.0

 
                 

EV

4,724.9

 

EV

4,477.6

 

EV

947.3

 
                 

Book Value

   

Book Value

   

Book Value

   

  2012E

$8.95

1.3 x

  2012E

$15.13

1.2 x

  2012E

$19.96

1.3 x

  2011E

$8.36

1.4 x

  2011E

$14.09

1.3 x

  2011E

$20.00

1.3 x

  2010

$8.17

1.4 x

  2010

$13.55

1.3 x

  2010

$21.06

1.2 x

  2009

$7.47

1.6 x

  2009

$13.39

1.4 x

  2009

$22.97

1.1 x

                 

EPS

   

EPS

   

EPS

   

  2012E

$0.59

19.8 x

  2012E

$1.04

17.5 x

  2012E

($0.04)

-621.5 x

 2011E

$0.19

61.4 x

  2011E

$0.54

33.7 x

  2011E

($1.06)

-24.1 x

  2010

$0.45

25.9 x

  2010

$0.50

36.4 x

  2010

($1.11)

-23.0 x

  2009

($0.90)

-13.0 x

  2009

($0.85)

-21.4 x

  2009

($2.11)

-12.1 x

                 

ROE

   

ROE

   

ROE

   

  2012E

6.8%

 

  2012E

7.1%

 

  2012E

-0.2%

 

  2011E

2.3%

 

  2011E

3.9%

 

  2011E

-5.1%

 

  2010

5.8%

 

  2010

3.7%

 

  2010

-5.0%

 

 

Complexity of the Transaction

Beyond the lack of financial history for BRP, there is another complicating factor which I believe adds to the opportunity.  Brookfield Office Properties is distributing its shares of BRP equity to BPO shares through a rights offering at $10.  Brookfield Asset Management has agreed to backstop the rights offering at $10 (which is why BAM may end up owning more than 2/3s of the BRP common).

The BPO rights trade publicly as BPO/RT or BPO-R on Bloomberg.  I believe that many of the BPO shareholders who received these rights back in early May (rights began trading on the 9th) have no interest in owning a homebuilder, much less writing a check to own one through a rights offering.  Selling pressure on those rights has, I believe, created downward pressure on the BRP shares as 10 rights exercise for 1 share of BRP at 10, so arbs keep the disparity between the two at a minimum.  I believe it's a case of the tail wagging the dog. 

Once the rights offering has expired, next Friday the 10th at 4pm, the selling pressure will be over, and any BPO shareholder that doesn't want to own BRP will be out of the name.  At that point I believe that BRP will begin trading on its own and analysts will begin to follow the story, both of which I believe are positive catalysts.

Valuation

Steady state BRP does between 85c and $1.00 in earnings on $10.00 of book.  I value that in line with US homebuilders at 1.3x to arrive at $13.00 fair value. 

In the best case the US gets back to a normalized number for housing starts and begins producing $120 to $150 in EBITDA which is about $1.00 / share in earnings (more in cash flow as the US has as $70 million NOL that isn't on the balance sheet but lasts for 15 years).  Combined, the business does close to $2.00 which I'd argue is worth about 10x or $20.00 per share.

Your downside is Canada goes to 2009 levels and the US burns $30m pre tax per year.  In that scenario you'd still have $10 in book but earnings would fall to 25c to 35c per share.  I give that a 20% discount to book and peg fair value around $8.00

At the current price of $10 per share you're buying a 75c dollar with 10 points of upside and 2 points of downside (5 to 1 risk reward), a near term catalyst, a free option on any recovery in housing and lots of cash flow generation while you wait.  For those reasons I believe BRP represents a compelling long investment.

 


 

 

Catalyst

June 10th, 2011 - Brookfield Office Properties shareholders received rights to purchase BRP stock at $10.00 per share (described in more detail below).  Those rights expire on the 10th, which should remove an overhang on the trading of BRP.

Analyst coverage - BRP is the only $1 billion market cap homebuilder without any analyst coverage

Earnings releases - there is no quarterly data on the combined company yet as BPO Residential was private.  Through the end of the year, earnings power will become apparent and analysts will be able to screen for and easily understand BRP.

    sort by   Expand   New

    Description

    Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP) Long Recommendation

    Price

    $10.20

     

    Book Value

     

     

    FD Shares

    101

     

        2012E

    $10.90

    0.9 x

    Market Cap

    1,034

     

        2011E

    $10.00

    1.0 x

     

     

     

        2010

    $9.14

    1.1 x

    Cash

    12

     

     

     

     

    Debt

    1,340

     

    EPS1

     

     

    Prefs

    2

     

        2012E

    $0.90

    11.3 x

    EV

    2,363

     

        2011E

    $0.86

    11.9 x

     

     

     

        2010

    $0.93

    11.0 x

     

     

     

     

     

     

    1 - EPS is adjusted for post merger capital structure and a normalized tax rate of 30%. 

     

    Brookfield Residential Properties is the newly formed combination of Brookfield Homes (formerly BHS) and Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) residential assets.  The merger between BHS and BPO Residential was completed in March of this year with BHS shareholders receiving 49.1% of BRP's equity and BPO receiving 50.7% (preferred shares captured the remaining 0.2%). 

    To the new entity, BHS contributed its assets which consist of entitled residential developments in California and Washington DC - BPO Residential contributed entitled residential developments in Canada (primarily Calgary) and also in Texas and Colorado.

    The combined Brookfield Residential has over $2.5 billion in assets, 55% of which are in the U.S. and 45% are in Canada. 

    BRP is trading for just over 1x book value today, a significant discount to publicly traded homebuilders which trade at over 1.3x book.  There is another more important distinction between BRP and other publicly traded homebuilders, BRP actually makes money, a lot of money.  While the U.S. business is roughly breakeven, the Canadian assets are producing steady profits and cash flow. 

    BRP represents an attractive absolute and relative valuation with a compelling near term catalyst and what amounts to a free option on a long term recovery in housing in the U.S.

    Valuation:

                    Current Price                        $10.20

                    Base Case                            $13.00

                    Best Case                            $20.00

                    Low Case                             $8.00

     

    Investment Positives:

                    Complicated transaction obfuscates the idea creating a "hidden gem"

                    Lack of clear financials masks the value created by the combination

                    Compelling valuation with cash flow generation while you wait to monetize U.S. assets

                    Smart owner with Brookfield Asset Management controlling over 2/3s of BRP

    Investment Risks:

                    BRP is highly levered with 58% debt to capital ($500m of which is owned by BPO)

                    Severe downturn in new home starts in the U.S. would pressure profitability in Canada

                    There isn't much public float with Brookfield Asset Management owning over 2/3s of BRP

    Catalysts:

    June 10th, 2011 - Brookfield Office Properties shareholders received rights to purchase BRP stock at $10.00 per share (described in more detail below).  Those rights expire on the 10th, which should remove an overhang on the trading of BRP.

    Analyst coverage - BRP is the only $1 billion market cap homebuilder without any analyst coverage

    Earnings releases - there is no quarterly data on the combined company yet as BPO Residential was private.  Through the end of the year, earnings power will become apparent and analysts will be able to screen for and easily understand BRP.

     

     

    Below is a description of Brookfield Homes and BPO Residential with summary financials as well as the consolidated financials.  The document used to source the numbers is the BPO rights offering prospectus filed with the SEC on May 5, 2011.

    Brookfield Homes

    Brookfield Homes contributed 8,200 lots in Northern California, 4,700 lots in LA and 8,700 in San Diego and 4,700 lots in Washington D.C.  Historically, BHS built and sold upwards of 1,000 homes per year.  During the boom, BHS sold as many as 1,600 homes in a year.  Today they are selling approximately 600 homes per year.  To scale those volumes financially, on average BHS would make around $120 or $150 million in EBITDA selling about 1,000 homes.  In the boom, BHS was making upwards of $300 million in EBITDA.  During the bust, they were in a loss position of about $35 million.  Today, they hare operating basically at breakeven after having right sized the G&A structure of the business.

    Financials are below:

    Income Statement

    2010

    2009

    2008

    2007

    2006

    2005

                 

    Housing

    292

    340

    415

    541

    784

    1,074

    Land

    47

    36

    34

    42

    88

    140

    Total

    339

    376

    449

    583

    872

    1,214

                 

    Cost of Sales

    284

    354

    416

    481

    617

    815

    Gross Profit

    55

    22

    33

    102

    255

    399

                 

    Impairments

    0

    24

    115

    88

    10

    0

    SG&A

    56

    52

    69

    69

    59

    90

                 

    Operating Income

    (1)

    (54)

    (151)

    (55)

    186

    309

                 

    Adj Operating Income

    (1)

    (30)

    (36)

    33

    196

    309

     

    Cash flows have been a different story.  During the boom, BHS spent all excess cash flow to buy and entitle new parcels.  As things began to fall apart in 2007, BHS pulled back on new land purchases and entitlements, and thus sales became completely cash generative and cash flows have been very positive.

    Going forward, my understanding is that management intends repay debt as a first priority, then to selectively invest in entitlement projects which they believe have 20%+ IRRs over two to three years.  In the U.S., building homes is not the priority for cash.

    BPO Residential

    BPO Residential contributed 28,900 lots in Calgary, 17,900 lots in Edmonton, 9,500 lots in Toronto, 14,800 lots in Austin and 10,700 lots in Denver.  All of the Canadian sites have homebuilding operations - the markets in the U.S. are not actively building homes.  Currently, the primary source of income for BPO Residential is lot sales in Alberta.  BPO Residential does build homes, but the sales of entitled lots are more significant both in terms of top and bottom lines.  House closings in Alberta and Toronto have been steady over time but have averaged about 900 units.  In 2009 the company closed on just 650 units and lot sales declined by about 25% in Canada which pushed operating income down to $100 million versus $200 million the prior year.  In 2010 lot sales in Alberta picked back up and operating income increased to $170 million, which is about where management believes it should stay in the current environment for energy.

    Demand in Alberta has been driven by trade up to mid-priced to higher-priced homes, which is a wealth creation affect from the current boom in the so called Oil Sands in Alberta.

    Financials are below:

    Income Statement

    2010

    2009

    2008

    2007

    2006

               

    Land

    308

    227

    355

    378

    230

    Housing

    307

    151

    223

    296

    173

    Total Revenue

    615

    378

    578

    674

    403

               

    CoGS

    412

    250

    323

    432

    292

    Gross Profit

    203

    128

    255

    242

    111

               

    SG&A

    35

    27

    37

    37

    24

               

    Operating Income

    168

    101

    218

    205

    87

               

    Adj Operating Income

    168

    101

    218

    205

    87

     

    Cash flows from Canada have been positive, but have lagged operating income as the company has spent capital to buy and entitle land.  Going forward, I'm told that land purchases will not be a focus but that the company will continue to entitle parcels to meet demand and maintain earnings.  Net, Canada should be a major cash generator, which in turn will be used to pay down debt.

    Brookfield Residential Properties Consolidated

    Below are the combined financials from BHS and BPO Residential.  The numbers flow down to adjusted net income line which incorporates the new capital structure for BRP and backs out the capitalized interest expense running through the cost of goods line - that is meant to show the true "cash" flow through of sales, operating profits and cash interest in a given year.

    Income Statement

    2010

    2009

    2008

    2007

    2006

               

    Land

    355

    263

    389

    420

    318

    Housing

    599

    491

    638

    837

    957

    Total Revenue

    954

    754

    1,027

    1,257

    1,275

               

    CoGS

    696

    604

    739

    913

    909

    Gross Profit

    258

    150

    288

    344

    366

               

    SG&A

    91

    79

    106

    106

    83

               

    Operating Income

    167

    71

    182

    238

    283

               

    Impairments

    0

    (7)

    (112)

    (88)

    (10)

    Unconsol Affiliates

    0

    1

    3

    13

    58

    Imp of Uncon Aff

    0

    (13)

    (38)

    (15)

    0

    Other Income

    22

    16

    (10)

    4

    18

               

    Pre Tax Income

    189

    68

    25

    152

    349

    Income Taxes

    59

    3

    (8)

    (6)

    116

    Tax Rate

    31%

    4%

    -32%

    -4%

    33%

               

    Net Income (Reported)

    130

    65

    33

    158

    233

    Net Income (Adjusted)

    94

           

    Free Cash Flow

    130

           
               

    Adjusted EPS

    $0.93

           

    Adj FCF per Share

    $1.28

           

    Book Value

    $9.14

           

     

    Below are the cash flows for the business, which take into account the change in land and homes as either a use or source of cash.  Going forward I believe that land and homes will be a source of cash in Canada and a slight source of cash from the US, which implies free cash flow above net income.


    Cash Flows

     
       

    Reported Operating Income

     

    Less: Title Transfer Margin (one time)

     

    Operating Income

    167

    Plus: Interest (expensed but previously capitalized)

    50

    Less: Interest (cash paid)

    (80)

    Less: Taxes (est 30%)

    (43)

    Less: Pref Dividend

    (0)

    Plus: D Land Inventory

    (18)

    Plus: D House Inventory

    54

    Cash Flow

    130

       

    Cash Balance

    4

    Project Debt

    846

    BAM Sr's

    273

    BAM Jr's

    222

    Pref Balance

    2

    Equity

    926

    ROE

    10.1%

     

    Competitive Landscape and Valuations

    D.R. Horton - DHI

     

    Lennar - LEN

       

    MDC Holdings - MDC

     
                     

    Price

    $11.66

     

    Price

    $18.18

     

    Price

    $25.48

     

    52 Wk Hi

    $13.50

     

    52 Wk Hi

    $21.54

     

    52 Wk Hi

    $32.40

     

    52 Wk Lo

    $9.41

     

    52 Wk Lo

    $11.93

     

    52 Wk Lo

    $24.34

     
                     

    FD shares

    320.0

     

    FD shares

    194.9

     

    FD shares

    46.7

     

    Mkt Cap

    3,731.2

     

    Mkt Cap

    3,542.5

     

    Mkt Cap

    1,190.3

     
                     

    Debt

    (1,959.4)

     

    Debt

    (3,129.1)

     

    Debt

    (1,243.1)

     

    Cash

    772.7

     

    Cash

    1,014.0

     

    Cash

    1,455.1

     

    Other (BV of Sub)

    193.0

     

    Other (BV Sub & Rialto)

    1,180.0

     

    Other (BV of Sub)

    31.0

     
                     

    EV

    4,724.9

     

    EV

    4,477.6

     

    EV

    947.3

     
                     

    Book Value

       

    Book Value

       

    Book Value

       

      2012E

    $8.95

    1.3 x

      2012E

    $15.13

    1.2 x

      2012E

    $19.96

    1.3 x

      2011E

    $8.36

    1.4 x

      2011E

    $14.09

    1.3 x

      2011E

    $20.00

    1.3 x

      2010

    $8.17

    1.4 x

      2010

    $13.55

    1.3 x

      2010

    $21.06

    1.2 x

      2009

    $7.47

    1.6 x

      2009

    $13.39

    1.4 x

      2009

    $22.97

    1.1 x

                     

    EPS

       

    EPS

       

    EPS

       

      2012E

    $0.59

    19.8 x

      2012E

    $1.04

    17.5 x

      2012E

    ($0.04)

    -621.5 x

     2011E

    $0.19

    61.4 x

      2011E

    $0.54

    33.7 x

      2011E

    ($1.06)

    -24.1 x

      2010

    $0.45

    25.9 x

      2010

    $0.50

    36.4 x

      2010

    ($1.11)

    -23.0 x

      2009

    ($0.90)

    -13.0 x

      2009

    ($0.85)

    -21.4 x

      2009

    ($2.11)

    -12.1 x

                     

    ROE

       

    ROE

       

    ROE

       

      2012E

    6.8%

     

      2012E

    7.1%

     

      2012E

    -0.2%

     

      2011E

    2.3%

     

      2011E

    3.9%

     

      2011E

    -5.1%

     

      2010

    5.8%

     

      2010

    3.7%

     

      2010

    -5.0%

     

     

    Complexity of the Transaction

    Beyond the lack of financial history for BRP, there is another complicating factor which I believe adds to the opportunity.  Brookfield Office Properties is distributing its shares of BRP equity to BPO shares through a rights offering at $10.  Brookfield Asset Management has agreed to backstop the rights offering at $10 (which is why BAM may end up owning more than 2/3s of the BRP common).

    The BPO rights trade publicly as BPO/RT or BPO-R on Bloomberg.  I believe that many of the BPO shareholders who received these rights back in early May (rights began trading on the 9th) have no interest in owning a homebuilder, much less writing a check to own one through a rights offering.  Selling pressure on those rights has, I believe, created downward pressure on the BRP shares as 10 rights exercise for 1 share of BRP at 10, so arbs keep the disparity between the two at a minimum.  I believe it's a case of the tail wagging the dog. 

    Once the rights offering has expired, next Friday the 10th at 4pm, the selling pressure will be over, and any BPO shareholder that doesn't want to own BRP will be out of the name.  At that point I believe that BRP will begin trading on its own and analysts will begin to follow the story, both of which I believe are positive catalysts.

    Valuation

    Steady state BRP does between 85c and $1.00 in earnings on $10.00 of book.  I value that in line with US homebuilders at 1.3x to arrive at $13.00 fair value. 

    In the best case the US gets back to a normalized number for housing starts and begins producing $120 to $150 in EBITDA which is about $1.00 / share in earnings (more in cash flow as the US has as $70 million NOL that isn't on the balance sheet but lasts for 15 years).  Combined, the business does close to $2.00 which I'd argue is worth about 10x or $20.00 per share.

    Your downside is Canada goes to 2009 levels and the US burns $30m pre tax per year.  In that scenario you'd still have $10 in book but earnings would fall to 25c to 35c per share.  I give that a 20% discount to book and peg fair value around $8.00

    At the current price of $10 per share you're buying a 75c dollar with 10 points of upside and 2 points of downside (5 to 1 risk reward), a near term catalyst, a free option on any recovery in housing and lots of cash flow generation while you wait.  For those reasons I believe BRP represents a compelling long investment.

     


     

     

    Catalyst

    June 10th, 2011 - Brookfield Office Properties shareholders received rights to purchase BRP stock at $10.00 per share (described in more detail below).  Those rights expire on the 10th, which should remove an overhang on the trading of BRP.

    Analyst coverage - BRP is the only $1 billion market cap homebuilder without any analyst coverage

    Earnings releases - there is no quarterly data on the combined company yet as BPO Residential was private.  Through the end of the year, earnings power will become apparent and analysts will be able to screen for and easily understand BRP.

    Messages


    Subjecttiming of overhang removal catalyst
    Entry06/07/2011 03:07 PM
    Membermm202
    nice idea. thanks. Do you expect the overhang to essentially end following the 10th? Or would you expect to see some continuing overhang for days/weeks because not all of those who receiv shares will sell them right away?
    TIA
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