|Shares Out. (in M):||43||P/E||0.0x||0.0x|
|Market Cap (in $M):||550||P/FCF||0.0x||0.0x|
|Net Debt (in $M):||56||EBIT||0||0|
Top 10 reasons to be short Bang & Olufsen, the consumer electronics company offering snazzy-designs and sticker-shock prices. Trades in Danish Kroner (DKK/USD fx rate is 5.539) at ~45x '16 Est EPS which they won't hit. US$550m market cap, EV US$605m. 43.2m shares out. Sales are US$500m.
|Subject||Never anyone in the 58th st store|
|Entry||07/23/2014 07:06 PM|
This was timely bc I walked by there today around 1:30 and no one was there and I thought to myself: "is there ever anyone in this store?" (I walk by there a fair amount)
|Subject||Agree. Short this too|
|Entry||07/25/2014 08:39 AM|
It might be even worse than you’ve laid out… Even if I make some “unrealisticly-aggressive” assumptions, the stock does not look cheap. For this exercise I’ve assumed:
- Sales per unit at B1 stores rise over 40% and go back to their 2007 all-time highs
- Non-B&O Play consumer gross margins rise 300bps and go back to their 2007 all-time highs
- Automotive sales increase 40% and 3rd party sales of B&O play double
- No corresponding increase in operating expenses
Given the company has no credible turn-around plan and model appears intrinsically flawed, I believe these assumptions are entirely unrealistic. However, even in this case shares still trade at >13x P/E!
|Subject||anyone able to short this on IB?|
|Entry||07/25/2014 08:23 PM|
seems like I can't trade Denmark which seems odd to me. Nice idea btw!
|Subject||RE: RE: turnaround|
|Entry||07/29/2014 04:37 PM|
Good question and comments greenshoes and Siren.
I'm with Siren on this... The pain they would have to go through to get rid of the dealer network and really change the bizmodel would be so extreme that they'd likely have to visit bankruptcy court en route.
Granted the strong brand name would sell well at lower price points, and though gross margins would be lower they might eek out a decent net margin, say mid-teens... similar to Samsung, if they produced the goods in lower cost countries... but they can't just do that, and the identity of this company is very tied to being Danish so there is no current plan to escape their cost structure and distribution arrangements.
|Subject||Time to cover|
|Entry||10/30/2014 10:21 AM|
With the outlook still bleak, it may be early to cover but I'm closing this out for the following reasons:
- stock down from 70 to 44
- Currency also moved favorably ~+6.5% to DKK 5.9
- modest insider buys
Will look to revisit higher if they pull off a decent Xmas season.