|Shares Out. (in M):||0||P/E|
|Market Cap (in $M):||652||P/FCF|
|Net Debt (in $M):||0||EBIT||0||0|
|Entry||07/08/2008 10:38 PM|
|can you give us the last 4 quarters comp numbers? are they sequentially getting worse or sequentially improving. I agree it is a very cheap stock as long as comps move toward 0. The stock is priced as if comp sales and margins will deteriorate for the next 2 years. I have no confidence that wont be the case.|
|Entry||07/16/2008 04:21 PM|
|Where are your comp nums coming from? I went back briefly and looked at the press releases and came up with 1Q to 4Q 2007 = -3.2%, -3.7%, -3.2%, -5.5% (extrapolated from full year) and then 1Q 2008 -4.4%. Trying to figure out where the discrepancy lies. Thanks.|
|Entry||07/16/2008 06:03 PM|
|oops. you were right. I had the wrong numbers. -3.2%, -4.1%, -2.3%, -5.5% was 07. |
only diff with you was Q2. I think they said H1 SSS was -3.7%, so i got -4.1% for Q2. but it doesn't matter.
|Subject||Q2 interim results|
|Entry||09/03/2008 07:04 PM|
|Despite the miserable Q2 comp BJI apparently reported a 1H profit drop of only 4%, which seems like a mighty fine performance to me. The buyback seems to have been completed now, and the stock continues to languish. This one still trades for slightly over 7x earnings which continues to seem ridiculous to me, but obviously anybody buying in the last year has egg on the face, so...|
|Subject||Q3 interim notice|
|Entry||11/06/2008 12:13 PM|
|Well, our favorite German retailer trades for 72.55 E or 92.47 USD last time I checked. Notes from the Q3 release:|
currency figures in Euros
*sales up 3.1% ytd
*58 new stores, 13 closures, 40 remodels, 3 relocations; doesn't include display racks (see below)
*Comps down 4% ytd
*Spain a weak spot; Germany actually up
*Earnings down 7.6% to 78.9 or down 6.5m
*they are getting into the display stand game in department stores with 90 units in Q3 and more than 100 by Q4
*expansion continues into Finland and Sweden
*buyback continues - BJI posts details on this on the website; 10m done; next 10m plan in motion
That's it. This is just a summary about the release (which you can find on the website), but I don't see much has changed here. Comps continue down and profits are lower but I think any retailer would like these results in this environment.
Of course, maybe things get worse, but BJI trades for 587m with trailing cash flow still well over 80m a year. You've been hurt by Euro depreciation but maybe that is behind us now (I have no idea).
This company doesn't do stupid things and management has a huge amount of skin in the game and they wouldn't be buying shares unless they thought it was the logical thing to do.
The company pays a big dividend and there is no reason to expect a decrease there.
I have not added to my position (lately) but have no thoughts on subtracting either.
Ok, that's it. If anybody has some original commentary on this I would love to hear it.
|Entry||08/05/2009 12:31 PM|
Still here - Price has reached $102.50, for a modest gain since the write-up, though there was also a dividend recently. Prelim figures were released per a PR in July so I figured I'd share a brief summary:
*sales were up 4.3% ytd
*comps were down 4.0% ytd. Sounds rough, but Q1 comps were apparently down 7% so a better number in Q2.
*Store counts reached 1103, up 71 from the previous year
*plans are for continued expansion into Eastern Europe and Turkey, and the company is adding display racks (concession stores) in a number of retailers.
*Spain gets special mention for sales weakness, not surprising considering that country's high umemployment rate
*Won't know about Earnings until late Aug, though Q1 was down pretty good. I'm hoping for a better performance in Q2 - maybe a little less than breakeven?
*Valuation - trades for 10.4x earnings (inclusive of Q1), less on an enterprise basis
I continue to hold my shares.
|Entry||09/10/2009 12:40 PM|
an update on everybody's favorite German retailer. Q2 was fine. Some details from the latest interim report:
*for ytd, earnings were 31.2m vs. 32.1 last year. However, Q1 was +8.8 and +12.2, so Q2 was an improvement (22.4 v 19.9)
*Germany was positive comps and they saw improvement in Italy, Netherlands, and Austria; Spain was weak
*finished with 1103 stores as of Q2, with 33 openings and 15 closures in 1H. They also operate 116 concessions. For the year, they see 70-80 store openings with 25 closures.
*buybacks, which are also updated online at their website, were 212,284 at EUR 75.20 (current price is 122). They appear to have stopped for now with only 13,620 purchased ytd.
*and the valuation? It is up more than 50% since this write-up in EUR, but the valuation is 969m. With 177m net cash, the enterprise value is 792m. Using that later number, the PE works out to 9.7x, P/CF at 8.2. Or 12m trailing net income of 82m, cash flow of 96m (NI + d/a), and CapEx of 16m.
*The BS looks great as usual - 177m cash, inventory up 6% , hardly any debt.
In short, I feel that if this were an American retailer, it would trade at least 50% higher than here. The FCF yield is still over 10% and given the company's intelligent actions with the buyback (buy low), big dividend (5.8% at today's price), high insider ownership (50%), I feel the stock could still be purchased with confidence at today's level.
|Subject||what a bad typo|
|Entry||10/07/2009 03:11 PM|
I just noticed my symbol on the idea is dead wrong - actual symbol is BIJ.F (BIJBF pink)...
|Subject||What did latest German PR say?|
|Entry||10/30/2009 12:22 PM|
Revenue was up 4.1% but what was LFL? What else was said in the German-only press release?
|Subject||The garbled google translation|
|Entry||10/30/2009 05:27 PM|
One can glean at least a few things from the following automated/garbled Google translation, such as LFL -4.1% for Q:
Wire: News Updates (OTS) Date: Oct 29 2009 0:09:02
|Subject||RE: The garbled google translation|
|Entry||10/31/2009 03:00 PM|
well, since they did flat earnings or so again on down comps, I'm still pretty encouraged. I'm also continually surprised by valuation here - i get a single digit pe and they are largely insider owned, don't do options, pay that big dividend, and generate enormous amounts of free cash. Really think if this were US based it would be at least 50% higher.
|Subject||RE: RE: The garbled google translation|
|Entry||10/31/2009 03:00 PM|
single digit pe sans cash
|Subject||RE: RE: RE: The garbled google translation|
|Entry||11/10/2009 06:22 AM|
Minor news. BIJOU completed the 2nd buyback program and announced a new plan to buy another 10M euro. It is small compared to market cap, but considering how illiquid the stock is, not bad. between dividend & buyback & the quality of the business, i am perplexed why the stock is not higher.
|Subject||RE: Author Exit Recommendation|
|Entry||07/14/2010 04:55 PM|
no great insights - I just figured with continued SSS weakness (down 5.4% in the 1H due to weakness in Spain) and more interesting prices in the USA in retail stocks I'd focus on stores I can visit more frequently...