Controladora Comercial Mexicana COMERUBC
October 30, 2015 - 12:42am EST by
flubber926
2015 2016
Price: 48.30 EPS 1.98 2.2
Shares Out. (in M): 1,086 P/E 26.4 21.9
Market Cap (in $M): 52,400 P/FCF 26.1 21.9
Net Debt (in $M): 0 EBIT 4,221 4,300
TEV ($): 48,200 TEV/EBIT 12.8 11.3

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  • Retail
  • Brand
  • Spin-Off
  • Stub
  • Family Controlled
 

Description

COMERCI

 

SNAPSHOT

 

COMERUBC

   

2014

2015E

Price

48.30

EPS

1.98

2.20

Shares Out. (in M):

1,086

P/E

26.4

21.9

Market Cap. (in M):

52,454

P/FCF

26.1

21.9

Net Debt (in M):

(4,264)

EBITDA

4,221

4,298

EV

48,353

EV/EBITDA

12.8

11.3



INTRODUCTION

Comerci sold to Soriana their hypermarket operations, in order for this transaction to happen the remaining stake, supermarket operations, will be spun-off and as such a new company will be created; for these paper purposes these remaining assets will be referred as “NewCo”.

We see NewCo as the most attractive investment opportunity in the Mexican retail sector and as a pure investment play through which we can participate in consumption targeted towards middle and upper sectors. It is estimated annual food and beverages expenditures for middle and upper class amounts over MXN$270 billion. In our view NewCo has the pole position in this attractive F&B upper market given the positioning of its supermarket operations as well as other several competitive advantages it boasts.

To better understand NewCo we will briefly explain what is Comerci.

 

COMERCI OVERVIEW

 

COMERCI is the ticker for CCM (Controladora Comercial Mexicana). CCM through its subsidiaries operates one Mexico’s biggest supermarkets chain.

One of Comerci’s main competitive advantages is its food and groceries commercialization, as it  represented 68.3% of 2014 Consolidated Revenues. By 2014 the Company had 199 stores and 1.3 million m² of selling floor.

Mexican retail sector has certain particularities, one of them is the existence of several formats. Efforts to increase profitability in a really competitive environment, has led the largest four retail chains (WALMEX, SORIANA, COMERCI and CHEDRAUI) to launch several format that allow them to participate in different segments with a higher level of specialization. Each of these formats is perfectly diferentiated from others in store size, products offered, prices and service level.

COMERCI divides its retail operations in two divisions: Hypermarkets and Supermarkets. This two divisions encompass several formats at the same time.

Hypermarkets: As the name indicates these stores have larger selling space area. Hypermarkets target basically all the segments as they offer a wide variety of products. Comerci’s hypermarkets are divided in 3 formats: Mega Comercial Mexicana are the largest stores and offer the most complete variety of products allowing this format to target all of the socioeconomic spectrum. Comercial Mexicana and Bodega Comercial Mexicana are smaller stores than Mega and the difference between them lies in the segment they provide service to; Comercial Mexicana (medium to medium high) and Bodega (low).

Supermarkets: This smaller formats mainly focus in selling food and groceries. Supermarkets include 4 formats with substantial differences among them. Sumesa attacks medium and lower class clients and its main strentgh is its stores location. Alprecio are small formats whose main focus is price competitiveness with a clear cut focus on lower class clients, Fresko focuses on store location targeting medium to high class customers and City Market which is COMERCI’s upscale format offers gourmet products and is oriented to high classes.

Marketing strategy has  been exceptionally well executed as Comerci has become a household brand in Mexican retail. Marketing efforts have translated into promotions and campaigns that are widely recognized and accepted by customers; some of them are: Julio Regalado (promotional campaign offering substantial discounts in the months of July and August, this promotion has lasted 33 years), Miércoles de Plaza (offers lower prices mainly in fruits and vegetables on Wednesdays, it has lasted 32 years), Monedero Naranja (loyalty card program that allows the client to collect points based on the amount spent which later are redeemable for products such as kitchen utensils among others).

As we have mentioned the brand “Comercial Mexicana” is widely regarded, and its private label “Golden Hills” is not the exception, ranking continously in the top 3 private labels in the country. Comercial Mexicana has as well its own private label of generic drugs under the name “Farmacom”.

Comerci has developed its business mainly in Mexico’s central region as 81.8% of the Company’s consolidated revenues are generated there. We have a positive perception on the Company’s exposure to this region; as Mexico City, Estado de México and Puebla present attractive demographics like high population density and a buoyant economic activity. We believe this elements have allowed the Company to have its stores in premium locations and to own more valuable real estate assets as well as the possibility to sell to clients with high spending power.

 

2008 CRISIS

 

Comerci in 2008 was heavily invested in FX derivatives betting on the strength of the Mexican peso with uncovered positions that posed a great risk on its financial stability. This was extremely irresponsible as the Company had all of its operations in Mexico and the only reason behind  investing in that kind of financial instruments was a speculative one. CCM had been betting with relative success on the strength of the Mexican Peso and in october 2008, the mexican peso depreciated against the american dollar Comerci was unable to close its positions and margin calls began. Losses were around US$ 1.1 billion and they left CCM facing a severe liquidity crisis as they had to renegotiate with several banks. This financial and strategical turmoil affected the Company’s ability to invest and ultimately the business competitive position. Fortunately Comerci was able to turn around the situation and the lesson was learned, now the Company has a conservative financial approach with a clear focus on adding value to its shareholders. The Company closed 2Q15 with zero debt and a cash position of MXN$ 4.3 billion.

 

SECTOR

 

Mexican retail sector is pulverized and extremely competitive, on the one hand we have really big players with substantial financial resources, and on the other hand informal sector serves a great part of the population. Super market chains make up the formal sector, while the informal sector is conformed by mom-and-pop stores and street markets. There has been customer shift towards traditional market basically on the basis of better prices, a more convenient shopping experience and a better and wider credit offer. COMERCI’s main competitors are: WALMEX, SORIANA, CHEDRAUI and in minor extent HEB and Casa Ley

There has been consolidation in the industry as big acquisition have been made recently. In 2007 Chedraui acquired Carrefour, in 2010 Soriana acquired Gigante’s supermarket operation and more recently Soriana acquired certain assets from Comerci. This consolidation has changed the competitive landscape as retail companies have gained more negotiating power that translate into more competitive prices and larger scale. As a result margins have contracted and growth has become more challenging for all the players in the sector.

In 2013 a fiscal reform was approved. The effects of this reform affected negatively consumption in Mexico as supermarket SSS decreased in 2013 and practically remained flat in 2014. Through 1Q15 SSS pace has picked up, showing recovery in consumption.





Year

ANTAD SSS Supermarkets

COMERCI SSS

     

2006

6.7%

2.8%

2007

5.7%

0.5%

2008

6.0%

3.2%

2009

2.2%

(0.8%)

2010

1.2%

0.5%

2011

3.8%

4.9%

2012

4.0%

3.5%

2013

(0.6%)

1.1%

2014

0.3%

1.4%

1Q15

3.8%

3.0%

 

TRANSACTION

 

On January 28th, 2015,  SORIANA purchased from COMERCI the operation of  its hypermarkets and the Alprecio format, we will mention the highlights of this transaction:

  • Purchase of 160 stored under the Mega, Comercial Mexicana, Bodega CM and Alprecio formats. Of the 160 stores, 142 will be owned and 18 will be leased.

  • The transaction includes 3 distribution centers, equipment & inventory, its logistics platform and 51 additional real estate assets which include land bank properties and commercial venues rented to third parties.

  • Soriana will get to keep the right of use of the “Comercial Mexicana” brand for 2 years.

  • For all these assets Soriana payed MXN$ 39.2 billion, this amount implies a multiple of 12.5x 2014 EBITDA.

  • In order to perform the transaction the remaining assets will be spun off to create a new Company.  



NEW COMPANY



As mentioned the assets not included in the Soriana deal will be spun off. This assets consist mostly of the Supermarket stores and will be owned by this so called “NewCo”. We will mention some of NewCo’s highlights:

 

  • NEWCO will keep the ownership and operation of 40 stores under the following formats: City Market (high end), Fresko (medium to high end), Sumesa (low end) and some stores that later will be converted to Freskos or City Markets.

  • Main focus will be in developing the Fresko brand, as there lies the greatest potential as it now only alligns with their interest to focus on a high class segment, but it also fits with the core competences of the management team of selling only food and groceries.

  • Company will continue with a discipline growth as management will mainly focus on Mexico’s central region, a market which they know well and allows them to lever on their existing distribution centers.

  • It will get to keep as well 1 distribution center and 2 land banks.

  • NEWCO formats have better margins than peers at 9.3%, yet we expect margin contraction mostly coming from the lost of operational leverage mostly in SG&A and in some minor extent from lose of scale and negotiating power, all in all margins would still  be higher than peers as margin contraction of 150 bps is expected at the most

  • Managements expects NEWCO to double its size in the next 5 – 7 years. This would imply anual growth rates in Revenues and EBITDA of 15 and 17% respectively  





NEWCO FINANCIALS

 

 

2014

%

2015

%

YOY%

Sales

          10,528

 

          11,561

 

9.8%

COGS

           7,896

75.0%

            8,680

75.1%

9.9%

SG&A (ex D&A)

           1,663

15.8%

            1,850

16.0%

11.2%

EBITDA

              974

9.3%

            1,031

8.9%

5.9%

Stores

                40

 

                44

 

10.0%















Store Count

City Market

5

Fresko

5

Sumesa

12

Stores to Convert

18

Total

40







NEWCO vs PEERS

 

As we mentioned before, the assets NewCo will get to keep, post better margins than the operations sold. EBITDA margin stands at 9.3% and as a result of lower scale SG&A will hurt profitability on the short term, eventually margins will pick up and we believe they will normalize at current levels of ≈9%.



Metrics per m²

NewCo

Chedraui

Soriana

Walmex

Sales Space (m²)

            150,746

         1,425,466

         3,285,688

         5,786,005

12m Average Sales Space (m²)

        1,275,590

         1,234,651

         3,238,281

         5,799,284

Sales / m² P$

              69,839

              44,178

              31,445

              64,826

EBITDA / m² P$

                6,464

                 2,840

                 2,180

                 6,446

EV / m² P$

                   30.5

                   35.0

                   17.2

                   92.2

CAPEX /  m² P$

              50,000

              25,140

              15,340

              23,140

m² per store

                2,965

                 6,599

                 4,875

                 2,728

 

 

 

 

 

Profitability

 

 

 

 

Operating Mg

6.8%

4.7%

4.9%

8.5%

EBITDA Mg

9.3%

6.4%

6.9%

10.1%

Net Mg

 

3.1%

3.6%

8.2%

 

 

 

 

 

Ratios

 

 

 

 

ROIC (Company)

 

9.0%

7.6%

15.0%

ROIC (Operating)

11.7%

10.7%

7.9%

18.7%

ROE

 

8.0%

8.5%

21.3%



PEERS VALUATION



WALMEX

          15.3x

COMERCI

          11.3x

CHEDRAUI

          10.1x

SORIANA

            6.8x

 

 

MEDIAN

          10.7x

AVERAGE

          10.9x



NEWCO VALUATION

 

Price per Share

          48.30

Shares Outstanding

        1,086

Market Cap

       52,545

SORIANA Payment

       39,194

Implied Market Cap NEWCO

       13,260

Real Estate Value

           1,186

Tax Benefits

        1,950

Adj. NEWCO Market Cap

       10,124

Net Cash Position

        4,752

Min Part (@P/BV)

           287

NEWCO EV

        5,085

EBITDA (Spinoff)

        1,031

EV/EBITDA

4.9x

EBITDA (@7.5% -140bps YOY)

           867

EV/EBITDA Adj

5.9x



NewCo is a top notch asset with  higher margin than its peers. In our opinion Newco belongs in a different asset class than its retail competitors mostly because of its exposure to clients with higher spending power. We also believe it is less prone  to be affected by  consumption cycles and it faces a less intense competitive landscape as most supermarket chains have focused on lower segments.  

Soriana’s transaction would enable us to buy NewCo at a significant discount to peers at only 4.9x EBITDA, comparable companies trade at 10.7x. We believe this investement opportunity is extremely attractive, not only from a valuation perpective but also we would be buying a great company with more attractive growth rates. Growth in the retail sector has stagnated mainly because of tough economic conditions and a more aggresive competitve landscape. As we mentioned NewCo would be able to weather this headwinds due to its exposure to higher socioeconomic segments.




COMERCI VALUATION

 

NewCo Valuation

P$

 

 

15e EBITDA

           1,031

Target EV/EBITDA

                     12.5

 

 

EV

        12,888

 

 

Cash-at-hand '14

-          4,263

3Q15e FCF

-          489

 

 

Total Cash

          4,752

 

 

Total Debt

0

 

 

NewCo Value

        17,640













Tax Benefits

P$

Total Loss Carryforwards (as of 2015E)

     1,950

Tax Benefits

     1,950

 

 

Value of Real Estate

P$

Rents

          151

Mg NOI

          84.1%

Net Operating Income (NOI)

         127

Cap Rate

7.5%

Value of Real Estate After Tax

        1,186










NEWCO Value

17,640

Tax Benefit Value

1,950

Real Estate Value

1,186

TOTAL NEWCO VALUE

20,776





SORIANA’s Tender

39,194










Total Value

59,970

Shares Outstanding

1,086

Theoretical Price per Share

55.2

Pricer per Share 20/04/15

48.30

Upside

13.8%




I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Spinoff of newco this month

    sort by    

    Description

    COMERCI

     

    SNAPSHOT

     

    COMERUBC

       

    2014

    2015E

    Price

    48.30

    EPS

    1.98

    2.20

    Shares Out. (in M):

    1,086

    P/E

    26.4

    21.9

    Market Cap. (in M):

    52,454

    P/FCF

    26.1

    21.9

    Net Debt (in M):

    (4,264)

    EBITDA

    4,221

    4,298

    EV

    48,353

    EV/EBITDA

    12.8

    11.3



    INTRODUCTION

    Comerci sold to Soriana their hypermarket operations, in order for this transaction to happen the remaining stake, supermarket operations, will be spun-off and as such a new company will be created; for these paper purposes these remaining assets will be referred as “NewCo”.

    We see NewCo as the most attractive investment opportunity in the Mexican retail sector and as a pure investment play through which we can participate in consumption targeted towards middle and upper sectors. It is estimated annual food and beverages expenditures for middle and upper class amounts over MXN$270 billion. In our view NewCo has the pole position in this attractive F&B upper market given the positioning of its supermarket operations as well as other several competitive advantages it boasts.

    To better understand NewCo we will briefly explain what is Comerci.

     

    COMERCI OVERVIEW

     

    COMERCI is the ticker for CCM (Controladora Comercial Mexicana). CCM through its subsidiaries operates one Mexico’s biggest supermarkets chain.

    One of Comerci’s main competitive advantages is its food and groceries commercialization, as it  represented 68.3% of 2014 Consolidated Revenues. By 2014 the Company had 199 stores and 1.3 million m² of selling floor.

    Mexican retail sector has certain particularities, one of them is the existence of several formats. Efforts to increase profitability in a really competitive environment, has led the largest four retail chains (WALMEX, SORIANA, COMERCI and CHEDRAUI) to launch several format that allow them to participate in different segments with a higher level of specialization. Each of these formats is perfectly diferentiated from others in store size, products offered, prices and service level.

    COMERCI divides its retail operations in two divisions: Hypermarkets and Supermarkets. This two divisions encompass several formats at the same time.

    Hypermarkets: As the name indicates these stores have larger selling space area. Hypermarkets target basically all the segments as they offer a wide variety of products. Comerci’s hypermarkets are divided in 3 formats: Mega Comercial Mexicana are the largest stores and offer the most complete variety of products allowing this format to target all of the socioeconomic spectrum. Comercial Mexicana and Bodega Comercial Mexicana are smaller stores than Mega and the difference between them lies in the segment they provide service to; Comercial Mexicana (medium to medium high) and Bodega (low).

    Supermarkets: This smaller formats mainly focus in selling food and groceries. Supermarkets include 4 formats with substantial differences among them. Sumesa attacks medium and lower class clients and its main strentgh is its stores location. Alprecio are small formats whose main focus is price competitiveness with a clear cut focus on lower class clients, Fresko focuses on store location targeting medium to high class customers and City Market which is COMERCI’s upscale format offers gourmet products and is oriented to high classes.

    Marketing strategy has  been exceptionally well executed as Comerci has become a household brand in Mexican retail. Marketing efforts have translated into promotions and campaigns that are widely recognized and accepted by customers; some of them are: Julio Regalado (promotional campaign offering substantial discounts in the months of July and August, this promotion has lasted 33 years), Miércoles de Plaza (offers lower prices mainly in fruits and vegetables on Wednesdays, it has lasted 32 years), Monedero Naranja (loyalty card program that allows the client to collect points based on the amount spent which later are redeemable for products such as kitchen utensils among others).

    As we have mentioned the brand “Comercial Mexicana” is widely regarded, and its private label “Golden Hills” is not the exception, ranking continously in the top 3 private labels in the country. Comercial Mexicana has as well its own private label of generic drugs under the name “Farmacom”.

    Comerci has developed its business mainly in Mexico’s central region as 81.8% of the Company’s consolidated revenues are generated there. We have a positive perception on the Company’s exposure to this region; as Mexico City, Estado de México and Puebla present attractive demographics like high population density and a buoyant economic activity. We believe this elements have allowed the Company to have its stores in premium locations and to own more valuable real estate assets as well as the possibility to sell to clients with high spending power.

     

    2008 CRISIS

     

    Comerci in 2008 was heavily invested in FX derivatives betting on the strength of the Mexican peso with uncovered positions that posed a great risk on its financial stability. This was extremely irresponsible as the Company had all of its operations in Mexico and the only reason behind  investing in that kind of financial instruments was a speculative one. CCM had been betting with relative success on the strength of the Mexican Peso and in october 2008, the mexican peso depreciated against the american dollar Comerci was unable to close its positions and margin calls began. Losses were around US$ 1.1 billion and they left CCM facing a severe liquidity crisis as they had to renegotiate with several banks. This financial and strategical turmoil affected the Company’s ability to invest and ultimately the business competitive position. Fortunately Comerci was able to turn around the situation and the lesson was learned, now the Company has a conservative financial approach with a clear focus on adding value to its shareholders. The Company closed 2Q15 with zero debt and a cash position of MXN$ 4.3 billion.

     

    SECTOR

     

    Mexican retail sector is pulverized and extremely competitive, on the one hand we have really big players with substantial financial resources, and on the other hand informal sector serves a great part of the population. Super market chains make up the formal sector, while the informal sector is conformed by mom-and-pop stores and street markets. There has been customer shift towards traditional market basically on the basis of better prices, a more convenient shopping experience and a better and wider credit offer. COMERCI’s main competitors are: WALMEX, SORIANA, CHEDRAUI and in minor extent HEB and Casa Ley

    There has been consolidation in the industry as big acquisition have been made recently. In 2007 Chedraui acquired Carrefour, in 2010 Soriana acquired Gigante’s supermarket operation and more recently Soriana acquired certain assets from Comerci. This consolidation has changed the competitive landscape as retail companies have gained more negotiating power that translate into more competitive prices and larger scale. As a result margins have contracted and growth has become more challenging for all the players in the sector.

    In 2013 a fiscal reform was approved. The effects of this reform affected negatively consumption in Mexico as supermarket SSS decreased in 2013 and practically remained flat in 2014. Through 1Q15 SSS pace has picked up, showing recovery in consumption.





    Year

    ANTAD SSS Supermarkets

    COMERCI SSS

         

    2006

    6.7%

    2.8%

    2007

    5.7%

    0.5%

    2008

    6.0%

    3.2%

    2009

    2.2%

    (0.8%)

    2010

    1.2%

    0.5%

    2011

    3.8%

    4.9%

    2012

    4.0%

    3.5%

    2013

    (0.6%)

    1.1%

    2014

    0.3%

    1.4%

    1Q15

    3.8%

    3.0%

     

    TRANSACTION

     

    On January 28th, 2015,  SORIANA purchased from COMERCI the operation of  its hypermarkets and the Alprecio format, we will mention the highlights of this transaction:



    NEW COMPANY



    As mentioned the assets not included in the Soriana deal will be spun off. This assets consist mostly of the Supermarket stores and will be owned by this so called “NewCo”. We will mention some of NewCo’s highlights:

     





    NEWCO FINANCIALS

     

     

    2014

    %

    2015

    %

    YOY%

    Sales

              10,528

     

              11,561

     

    9.8%

    COGS

               7,896

    75.0%

                8,680

    75.1%

    9.9%

    SG&A (ex D&A)

               1,663

    15.8%

                1,850

    16.0%

    11.2%

    EBITDA

                  974

    9.3%

                1,031

    8.9%

    5.9%

    Stores

                    40

     

                    44

     

    10.0%















    Store Count

    City Market

    5

    Fresko

    5

    Sumesa

    12

    Stores to Convert

    18

    Total

    40







    NEWCO vs PEERS

     

    As we mentioned before, the assets NewCo will get to keep, post better margins than the operations sold. EBITDA margin stands at 9.3% and as a result of lower scale SG&A will hurt profitability on the short term, eventually margins will pick up and we believe they will normalize at current levels of ≈9%.



    Metrics per m²

    NewCo

    Chedraui

    Soriana

    Walmex

    Sales Space (m²)

                150,746

             1,425,466

             3,285,688

             5,786,005

    12m Average Sales Space (m²)

            1,275,590

             1,234,651

             3,238,281

             5,799,284

    Sales / m² P$

                  69,839

                  44,178

                  31,445

                  64,826

    EBITDA / m² P$

                    6,464

                     2,840

                     2,180

                     6,446

    EV / m² P$

                       30.5

                       35.0

                       17.2

                       92.2

    CAPEX /  m² P$

                  50,000

                  25,140

                  15,340

                  23,140

    m² per store

                    2,965

                     6,599

                     4,875

                     2,728

     

     

     

     

     

    Profitability

     

     

     

     

    Operating Mg

    6.8%

    4.7%

    4.9%

    8.5%

    EBITDA Mg

    9.3%

    6.4%

    6.9%

    10.1%

    Net Mg

     

    3.1%

    3.6%

    8.2%

     

     

     

     

     

    Ratios

     

     

     

     

    ROIC (Company)

     

    9.0%

    7.6%

    15.0%

    ROIC (Operating)

    11.7%

    10.7%

    7.9%

    18.7%

    ROE

     

    8.0%

    8.5%

    21.3%



    PEERS VALUATION



    WALMEX

              15.3x

    COMERCI

              11.3x

    CHEDRAUI

              10.1x

    SORIANA

                6.8x

     

     

    MEDIAN

              10.7x

    AVERAGE

              10.9x



    NEWCO VALUATION

     

    Price per Share

              48.30

    Shares Outstanding

            1,086

    Market Cap

           52,545

    SORIANA Payment

           39,194

    Implied Market Cap NEWCO

           13,260

    Real Estate Value

               1,186

    Tax Benefits

            1,950

    Adj. NEWCO Market Cap

           10,124

    Net Cash Position

            4,752

    Min Part (@P/BV)

               287

    NEWCO EV

            5,085

    EBITDA (Spinoff)

            1,031

    EV/EBITDA

    4.9x

    EBITDA (@7.5% -140bps YOY)

               867

    EV/EBITDA Adj

    5.9x



    NewCo is a top notch asset with  higher margin than its peers. In our opinion Newco belongs in a different asset class than its retail competitors mostly because of its exposure to clients with higher spending power. We also believe it is less prone  to be affected by  consumption cycles and it faces a less intense competitive landscape as most supermarket chains have focused on lower segments.  

    Soriana’s transaction would enable us to buy NewCo at a significant discount to peers at only 4.9x EBITDA, comparable companies trade at 10.7x. We believe this investement opportunity is extremely attractive, not only from a valuation perpective but also we would be buying a great company with more attractive growth rates. Growth in the retail sector has stagnated mainly because of tough economic conditions and a more aggresive competitve landscape. As we mentioned NewCo would be able to weather this headwinds due to its exposure to higher socioeconomic segments.




    COMERCI VALUATION

     

    NewCo Valuation

    P$

     

     

    15e EBITDA

               1,031

    Target EV/EBITDA

                         12.5

     

     

    EV

            12,888

     

     

    Cash-at-hand '14

    -          4,263

    3Q15e FCF

    -          489

     

     

    Total Cash

              4,752

     

     

    Total Debt

    0

     

     

    NewCo Value

            17,640













    Tax Benefits

    P$

    Total Loss Carryforwards (as of 2015E)

         1,950

    Tax Benefits

         1,950

     

     

    Value of Real Estate

    P$

    Rents

              151

    Mg NOI

              84.1%

    Net Operating Income (NOI)

             127

    Cap Rate

    7.5%

    Value of Real Estate After Tax

            1,186










    NEWCO Value

    17,640

    Tax Benefit Value

    1,950

    Real Estate Value

    1,186

    TOTAL NEWCO VALUE

    20,776





    SORIANA’s Tender

    39,194










    Total Value

    59,970

    Shares Outstanding

    1,086

    Theoretical Price per Share

    55.2

    Pricer per Share 20/04/15

    48.30

    Upside

    13.8%




    I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
    I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

    Catalyst

    Spinoff of newco this month

    Messages


    Subjectquestions
    Entry10/30/2015 10:28 AM
    Memberjim211

    Thanks for the writeup. 

    I am a little confused about the structure here.  So you are saying buy it now as the big entity which is selling most of itself.  Is this a spinoff, or is it just the stub that is going to be left over.  i.e. who do the proceeds go to?  And if its just the stub, how have you factored in taxes?  Are the proceeds going to be dividended out?

    And on the NEWCO opportunity, is one DC enough or do you expect to see major capital investment to fill that hole?


    SubjectRe: questions
    Entry10/30/2015 05:12 PM
    Memberflubber926

    Sure, thanks for the question.

    The deal dynamics are such that step one there will be a spinoff of newco and thereafter Soriana (the acquirer) will tender for Comerci. There should be no tax implications for newco.

    In my opinion (if Comerci unaffected stock price would remain the same) the ideal would be to buy the newly spinoffed co because upside potential could be close to 100% to what we believe the actual company value is.

    If you buy Comerci now, as we did, due to small proportion of what newco represents from the whole, upside is around 10%, although arguably downside is nil.

    As for newco I believe one distribution center is good for now given what the geographic footprint in day will be. I would gladly expand on any point of this thesis should you like.


    SubjectRe: cash flow
    Entry11/24/2015 12:50 AM
    Memberflubber926

    Coyote, thank you for the questions and apologies for the late response. 

    would you please lay out your expected free cash flow for the next few (3) years?  How much will it be for each conversion from Sumesa to CityMaket/Fresko?

    The expansion plan is yet to be announced. I expect around 50m usd fcf before store conversions. I expect around 20m cost per year for conversions during the next two on three years so fcf should be in the vicinity of 30m. We'll have much better clarity on this within the next couple of weeks as conversion schedules are maid public.

    has there been a leadership change?  what gives you confidence that there won't be another bet that results in large losses?

    This is a family owned business. I know them personally and have them in very high regard. No ones betting the ranch here. The derivatives issue resulted in changes at the CFO level and within the family's involvement. 

    why is 13x in Mexico attractive when you can buy for 7x in the US?

    You are actually buying at 7x earnings. Long runway ahead and leaders within their category. I'd use whole foods as a proxy in the US. Add growth to that. 

     

    Hope this is helpful. 

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