Dine Brands DIN S
July 23, 2018 - 5:57pm EST by
crawfordsville
2018 2019
Price: 70.50 EPS 0.61 1.20
Shares Out. (in M): 18 P/E 117 58
Market Cap (in $M): 1,304 P/FCF 7 10.5
Net Debt (in $M): 1,182 EBIT 174 170
TEV (in $M): 2,469 TEV/EBIT 14 15
Borrow Cost: General Collateral

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Description

Dine Brands is a holding company for two restaurant franchise chains, IHOP and Applebees. 
 
Dine Brands is a short with downside to $40 a share. 
 
Dine Brands is a declining business as evidenced by a 26% decline in Applebees royalty revenue caused by declining traffic, declining same store sales, steeper competition, and out of fashion dining behavior. The other half of the business IHOP has not grown in the past 3 years. The declining fundamentals of the business coupled with 6x debt to ebitda leverage the stock is vulnerable to considerable downside. 
 
Franchise businesses typically trade at 5-10 multiple premium to individual franchise stores because the market ascribes higher values to the asset-light model that can grow by using the balance sheet of the franchisee and drive marketing/adverstising/operational synergies across a network. However, when the concept/franchisee suffers declining returns the abiility for these franchisees to pay royalty to the franchisor is compromised. There are also significant conflict of interests as franchisors are incentivized to drive traffic/comps without regard to margins as well as a conflict between franchisees that own real estate vs their owned opeartions. A franchisee that has developed a new store is likely to assign higher rents to the stores in order to extract more value from banks looking to lend on the real estate and hence locking the franchisee into a high cost of operations. In addition the franchisee has to service debt at the franchisee level in order to pay for its cost of acquiring the rights to operate. 
 
DIN equity was mistakenly characterized in 2012 by activist funds as having cash flows more stable than tobacco companies. DIN is in a highly competitive market with fierce capable competitiors, changing consumer tastes, and aggressive need for promotions to drive traffic. With high fixed costs in the business, there is high sensitivity to decliing topline. 
 
DIN  is an attractive short as there is no logical buyer for this constrained asset.  DIN is focused on returning capital at all costs and maintaining a dividend and share buyback. This is exactly the opposite strategy a company that is facing extreme competition and wage/labor pressure should be doing. We think an ultimate cut in return of capital has to happen in order to reposition the company for growth. 
 
DINE EQUITY (DINE BRANDS)        
         
         
  2018 2017 2016 2015
Revenues        
Franchise and rest revenues 460              475              501              542
rental revenues              120              121              123              128
financing revenues                  8                  8                  9                11
Total revenues 588              605              633              680
         
Cost of revenues        
Franchise and restaurant expenses 172 171.98 162.8 186.9
Rental expenses 90 90.5 91.5 94.5
Financing expenses 0.5 0.598 0.155 0.52
total costs 325.5 263.078 254.455 281.92
         
g&a 151 165.6 148.9 155.4
ebit 174.5              176              230              243
         
interest 76.92 61.7 61.4 63.2
         
cfo  114 65.7 118 135
capex 10 13.3 5.6 6.64
fcf 104 52.4 112.4 128.36
         
dividends           45.33 69.7 67.4 66.1
repurhase of stock  30 10 55 70
         
taxes paid 44 59 69  
total fcf 28.6652      
         
debt 1282      1,282.00             5.83  
cash 117         117.00    
shares 17.99           17.99    
price 72.5  $       80.00    
equity 1304.275      1,439.44    
ev 2469.275      2,604.44    
         
ebitda 230              220    
         
ev/ebitda           10.74           11.84   SHOULD THIS BE WORTH THIS?
         
fcf 7.97% 3.64%    
GUIDANCE 104MM FCF   7.23%    
DIVIDEND 3.48% 3.15% PAYOUT RATIO IS 44%
applebees        
SYSTEM SALES    $  4,117.00  $  4,418.00  $  4,711.00
franchise resaurants   1970 2027 2004
restaurant growth   -3% 1%  
SSS   -5.30% -5.00% 0.20%
AVG WEEKLY SALES   43.6 45.3 47.8
ANNUAL VOL   2267.2 2355.6 2485.6
applebees revenue -0.2681818 161 180 220
segment margin   82% 94% 86%
stores   1782 1858 1878
implied royalty fee   3.91% 4.07% 4.67%
EBITDA            411.70         441.80         471.10
EBITDA PER STORE    $         0.21  $         0.22  $         0.24
IHOP        
SYSTEM SALES    $  2,974.00  $  2,939.00  $  2,948.00
Revenue growth   1.19% -0.31%  
ihop area sales    $     280.60  $     282.50  $     280.50
Frachise restaurants   1576 1517 1481
restaurant growth   4% 2%  
area license   164 166 166
company   5 10 12
total    1745 1693 1659
frachise revenue   185 184.8 184.3
franchise rev per store           0.1060         0.1092         0.1111
implied royalty fee   6.22% 6.29% 6.25%
SS   -1.90% -0.10% 4.50%
AVG WEEKLY SALES   36.3 37.3 37.6
ANNUAL VOL   1887.6 1939.6 1955.2
         
SYSTEMWIDE SALES             7,372           7,640           7,940
FRANCHISE REVENUE AS %   4.11% 4.43% 4.47%
         
MARKETING COSTS REQUIRED 3.25% AND 0.5% FOR LOCAL FOR APPLEBEES/IHOP. HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DO 5%
margins   11.00% 11.00% 11.00%
ebitda at the stores           810.88         840.35         873.35
         
ebitda per store    $         0.23  $         0.24  $         0.25
I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Next earnings. Disappointing numbers. 

Capital return cut back.

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