GENER8 MARITIME INC GNRT
March 15, 2016 - 12:18pm EST by
goob392
2016 2017
Price: 6.15 EPS 0 0
Shares Out. (in M): 85 P/E 0 0
Market Cap (in $M): 523 P/FCF 0 0
Net Debt (in $M): 1 EBIT 0 0
TEV (in $M): 2 TEV/EBIT 0 0

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Description

 
Long Gener8 Maritime GNRT $6.15
 
Over the next 18 months, GNRT will take delivery of a baker’s dozen of newbuild ECO-VLCCs , doubling
the current VLCC fleet, and will be positioned to substantially grow earnings power and initiate capital
returns via dividends and/or buybacks.
 
GNRT trades at 50% of NAV, versus peers at 80-90%, due to the
“on the come” nature of cash flows/capital returns, concerns about tanker lease rates and the broader
selloff in all things energy. As the cash flows/capital returns ramp with the new deliveries, I believe the
valuation will at least begin to approach peers, implying 50% potential returns.
 
I do not dismiss the concerns about the tanker market including the interplay of variables including
Chinese crude demand, OPEC (and other) production levels and new build (and used) tanker supply. I do
think some meaningful downside has been priced into the tanker stocks generally and as detailed below
to GNRT specifically. In addition GNRT is largely controlled by a group of investors who are likely to seek
value realization if the stock price continues to lag as the cash flow ramps as the deliveries continue to
come on line. Oaktree (16%), BlueMountain (10%), Avenue (9%), Aurora (8%) and Monarch (7%) all own
over 5% of the company.
 
Gener8 (GNRT) is a $500M mkt cap trading at 40% of $16 BV and 50% of low end of $12-14 NAV range.
 
GNRT is the result of a merger between two distressed companies, General Maritime and Navig8. Now
called Gener8, spelled with an “8”. Silly name - silly valuation. IPO was @ $14.
 
Note: GNRT should give a business update along with Q4 results tonight. I will update this specific
numbers as needed following that update.
 
VLCC shipping company. 31 Ships now including 14 VLCCs (7 new Ecos) and 11 Suezmaxes. Will have
huge build in revs/EBITDA/FCF as they take delivery of 14 very modern efficient EcoVLCC fleet over the
next 18 months. Will institute dividend/ buybacks as earnings/cashflow ramp. Newbuilds are
essentially fully funded with support from Korean and Chinese ex/im banks. These EcoVLCC cost about
$100M each and are 15% more efficient on bunker fuel so there will be demand as they come into the
rental pools, especially versus the older VLCCs. Navigate, the former parent manages pools with over
300 ships of all types globally.
 
VLCC spot rates are volatile and spiked in Q4 to over $100k/day and seasonally came off in Q1 but
remain above assumptions in base models driven by excess crude supplies/storage. Lower crude for
longer is good for VLCC rates and especially GNRT given capacity additions scheduled for 2016/2017.
Get new ships into service/charters at decent rates. 10 year average around $42k/day.
 
Modelling EBITDA, cash flows and even the balance sheet and Enterprise Value yields a wide range of
outcomes depending on the dates used, deliveries assumed and of course assumptions about tanker
rates and utilization of the growing fleet as it hits the water.
 
I believe that as the fleet ramps and assuming a long term average rate market in the low $40k/day,
GNRT could be generating EBITDA of $400M or more by mid-’17. Debt should peak at about $1.5B as
the newbuilds come on, but operating cash flow also begins to build. (Net debt will be slightly lower).
Assuming $400M of EBITDA @ 6X (below peers) we get TEV of $2.4B, less debt of $1.5B yields equity
value of $900M which on 85M shares suggests a target of $10.50 or so. Note: the company will be
substantially free cash flow positive following the end of the newbuild program and the ramp of
operating cash flows as the VLCC enter the lease pools.
 
Depending on how the company uses the developing free cash flow we could see eps of $2.50- $3 by
2017. Could support div of $1.50 - $2. GNRT will not stay at $6.15 with divs/buybacks.
 
After a meaningful correction, peers currently sell at 80-90% NAV. GNRT should get there. At prior peer
valuations of +/- NAV GNRT would be $12-14.
 
Other Notes to Consider:
Most analysis is based on 3 year time charters and 5 year old ships, whereas GNRT will be mostly spot
and mostly new ECO-VLCCs. Biggest impact will be on older, 15+ year VLCCs. Starting to see ramp in
16+ vessels and these are candidates for scrappage.
Note: lower bunker fuel prices do lessen the advantage of the ECO in the ECO-VLCCs.
 
Note: GNRT is currently spot focused while competitors have a mix of spot and time charter. Expect mix
to change over time for both GNRT and peers in response to rate differentials (and occasional changes in
corporate strategy).
 
Many VLCC owners (60% by some accounts) also own dry bulk or offshore assets and these markets are
particularly weak. Banks typically will not exceed 60% financing at delivery. GNRT has 6 older Aframax
and Panamax vessels but these account for about $1.50/share of gross asset value. The company has begun to monetize some of the older assets.
Breakeven levels around $30k/day for VLCCs.
 
 
Catalysts
Visibility on ramp of EBITDA and free cash flow as newbuild program comes on line.
 
Initiation of dividends and potential buybacks (at current valuation levels).
 
Possible monetization actions by controlling shareholders.
 
 
I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Visibility on ramp of EBITDA and free cash flow as newbuild program comes on line.

 

Initiation of dividends and potential buybacks (at current valuation levels).

 

Possible monetization actions by controlling shareholders.

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