GLOBALSCAPE INC GSB
March 17, 2015 - 10:20am EST by
gocanucks97
2015 2016
Price: 3.00 EPS 0.23 0
Shares Out. (in M): 21 P/E 0 0
Market Cap (in $M): 63 P/FCF 0 0
Net Debt (in $M): 15 EBIT 7 0
TEV (in $M): 48 TEV/EBIT 6 0

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  • Software
  • Nano Cap

Description

GSB was written up by andreas947 over one year ago. I will refer you to his excellent write-up for a more detailed description of the company. The stock has appreciated 40% since, but the company has transitioned from a sleepy software company trading at low multiples to one at a reasonable multiple but possible inflection point of sustainable revenue growth. Stock currently trades at 10x EV/trailing EBIT, which is still quite cheap given the recent momentum (27% topline growth last Q). If the momentum continues, I can get to a $5 PT pretty easily based on 10x 2016 EBIT/FCF. Downside should be partially protected by net cash/share approaching $1 by year end 2015, and a steadily growing maintenance revenue stream (3.2x trailing EV/maint rev).

Company Description: GlobalSCAPE (GSB) develops and distributes software, delivers managed and hosted solutions, and provides associated services for secure information exchange for consumers and enterprises worldwide. GSB’s core product is the Enhanced File Transfer or EFT which currently represents about 80% of total revenues.

What changed: James Bindseil became CEO of the company in late 2013, after passing of previous CEO. He laid out three pillars of strategy to reinvigorate growth – 1) improving marketing and demand generation, 2) developing channel/partner relationships in US, 3) reenergizing product innovation.

Admittedly I was somewhat skeptical of these initiatives when they were first announced as they seemed too mundane/obvious. But proof is in the numbers, and quarter by quarter, one could see the story play out. First, it was a roadmap of new product release, then it was “pipeline/leads growing 100%”, then it was steady increase in deferred revenue from $10.8m at end of ’13 to $14.8 at end of ’14. The company had record booking of $8m in Q3 and Q4 respectively, which resulted in record sales of $8m in Q4. Most encouraging is there is no significant customer accounting for this increase, and the channel/partners developed last year have yet to contribute meaningfully to topline. Maintenance revenue also grew nicely to $16m run-rate at 90% renewal rate. Mgmt expressed guarded optimism about the upcoming year.

  FY 2009FY 2010FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013Q1Q2Q3Q4FY 2014FY 2015EFY 2016E
Sales16.518.620.923.424.35.76.76.57.926.831.434.5
   yoy4.2%12.8%12.5%11.9%4.1%1.4%3.6%3.1%26.9%10.0%17.2%10.0%
  License     9.21.52.52.34.010.312.914.0
  Maint    11.313.73.63.73.83.915.017.018.0
Bookings (rev + change in deferred rev)    22.75.68.18.68.529.9  
Cost of Goods Sold0.30.61.71.31.00.20.20.30.31.01.21.4
Gross Profit15.417.118.420.922.45.46.36.08.125.830.233.1
Op expenses13.615.817.620.318.44.65.54.76.321.123.024.5
% of Sales65.5%69.0%69.2%71.7%59.9%79.9%82.8%72.2% 79.0%73.3%71.0%
   R&D     3.80.50.70.50.42.23.03.5
   SG&A     14.94.04.94.25.018.119.020.0
EBITDA2.42.11.6(0.1)5.2--1.5 5.58.29.6
EBIT1.71.30.8(1.3)4.00.80.81.31.84.67.28.6
EBIT Margin10.5%7.0%4.0%-5.5%16.3%--19.3% 17.2%22.8%24.9%
Pretax Income1.71.30.8(1.6)3.70.80.71.3 4.67.59.1
Net Income to Common Shareholders1.40.90.6(1.8)3.80.50.50.81.23.04.96.0
EPS - Continuing Operations-$0.05$0.03-$0.10$0.20$0.03$0.02$0.04$0.06$0.15$0.23$0.29
# shares     19.082    20.6932121
              
Cash & ST Investments8.211.18.98.19.510.711.79.3 14.519.926.4
Receivables (Net)2.23.54.43.43.93.56.06.8 5.95.95.9
Current Assets - Total10.715.814.512.013.914.618.216.5 18.118.118.1
Deferred Rev    9.810.810.712.114.214.814.814.814.8
Total Shareholders Equity9.912.214.112.016.317.719.320.7 20.820.820.8
              
Net Income / Starting Line1.40.9--3.80.51.01.8 3.84.96.0
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization0.70.9--0.90.10.30.6 0.91.01.0
Deferred Income Taxes & Investment Tax Credit(0.4)(0.7)--(0.9)    (0.9)(0.9)(0.9)
Net Cash Flow - Operating Activities4.72.7--4.51.72.64.5 8.55.97.0
Capital Expenditures (Addition to Fixed Assets)0.50.2--(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.2) (0.4)(0.5)(0.5)
FCF5.22.9 0.04.4--0.0 8.15.46.5
per share     $0.23    $0.39$0.26$0.31

I feel this is a pretty straight forward story. I will let you decide what kind of multiple to pay for a business like this, but suffice to say current multiple leaves plenty of room for upside.B/S is very clean with $14.5m cash/equivalents. FCF was especially strong last year due in part to the build up of deferred revenue. Mgmt initiated a regular dividend of 6c/year on top of a special dividend of 5c.

 

 

2014

2015

2016

Price

$3.0

$3.0

$5.0

# shares

21.0

21.0

21.0

Mkt Cap

$63.0

$63.0

$105.0

Net Cash

14.5

19.9

26.4

    

Cash/share

$0.7

$0.9

$1.3

EV

$48.5

$43.1

$78.6

EV/EBIT

10.5x

6.0x

9.1x

EV/Sales

1.8x

1.4x

2.3x

EV/FCF

8.9x

7.9x

12.1x

P/E

20.5x

  

EV/maint

3.2x

2.5x

4.4x

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Continued ramp in sales

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