Hanergy Thin Film Power 566 S
March 08, 2015 - 8:53pm EST by
agape1095
2015 2016
Price: 6.80 EPS 0.07 0.07
Shares Out. (in M): 41,660 P/E 97 97
Market Cap (in $M): 283,274 P/FCF -5942 -1258
Net Debt (in $M): 162 EBIT 3,682 3,881
TEV (in $M): 283,436 TEV/EBIT 77 73
Borrow Cost: General Collateral

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  • Hong Kong
  • China
  • Solar
  • Energy
  • Accounting

Description

 Thesis

The financials are clearly manipulated and valuation is exceedingly high.  Given Xi Jinping's anti-corruption drive, the recent media attention in HK about Hanergy will act as a catalyst.  Even if I am wrong and this is a legitimate business, shorting at this valuation should be profitable.

* all figures in HKD unless stated otherwise

History

The company was a listed toy manufacturer and become a solar power company in a reverse merger in 2009.  The toy business was subsequently sold.  It sells and provides equipment and systems for the production of thin film silicon solar modules including a-Si & nc-Si and CIGS turnkey solutions.

Valuation

EV/T12M sales = 64.4

EV/T12M EBITDA = 91.2

Market Cap = $283.2B

source: Bloomberg

First Solar trades at 1.27x EV/sales and 6.43x EV/EBITDA.  This isn't a typo.  Hanergy trades at EV/Sales multiple is 50.7x First Solar.

To put this into perspective, if Hanergy is in the Heng Seng index, it would rank as teh 30th largest company by market cap.  It is a hair below China Unicom and is a couple of billions higher than Bank of China.

Possile Explanation of Recent Stock Performance

* Short squeeze is possible as the problem with the financials of the business was fairly apparent as early as 2011.   The stock is up 760% since 12/31/2013.  YTD it's up 153%.  Free float is limited.  Several media reports say Hanergy Holding (the parent company, to avoid confusion i will refer it as ParentCo in the write-up) controls 73% of the float.  I can't verify this. Bloomberg has free float % around 45%

* Recent inclusion into FTSE China 50 index generates incremental demand from ETFs and index funds

Questionable Business Model

The numbers indicate a strong, high growth company with great margins.  Revenue was $2.76B and $3.27B in 2012 and 2013 respectively, and $3.2B alone in the 1H2014.  

 

FY 2012

FY 2013

1H2014

Revenue

2,756.50

3,274.40

3,204.80

COGS

789.5

608.8

463.5

Operating Expense

236.5

412.4

618.4

Operating Income

1,730.50

2,253.20

2,122.90

       

operating margin

63%

69%

66%

 

Nonetheless, the footnote disclosed that almost 100% of revenue is from ParentCo.  I have excluded “other income and gains” from the revenue line.

 

FY 2012

FY 2013

1H2014

Revenue from ParentCo

2,756.46

3,243.70

3,164.33

as % of revenue

100%

99%

99%

       

The company also enters into numerous transactions as a buyer with ParentCo as the seller.  Some notable transactions are listed below.

In 2013,

·         Bought $1.9B worth of photovoltaic modules

·         Acquired CIGS IP by Solibro for $252mm.

·         Acquired the MiaSole CIGS IP for $444.5m

In 1H2014,

·         Acquired a solar PV module production line for $15.2mm USD or $120mm HKD

In summary, Hanergy buys PV assets from Parentco and derives 100% revenue from ParentCo.  I can’t help but ask why does Hanergy exist?

Where is the cash?

On a GAAP basis, Hanergy earned $3.4B in 2012-13.  Cash from operations during the same period was only $172mm.  Where is the cash?

 

FY 2012

FY 2013

Total

Reported Net Income

1,316.20

2,069.00

3,385.20

Cash from Operations

758.10

-585.80

172.30

The working capital accounts suggest that inventories, receivables, and prepayments are bleeding cash. 

 

FY 2012

FY 2013

changes in inventories

-31.72

-1,212.21

changes in receivables

-927.18

-249.79

changes in bills receivable

-0.55

0.55

changes in prepayments

-96.20

-1,861.90

changes in trade payables

243.30

289.66

changes in accruals

25.54

65.43

 

Inventories was $360mm at the start of 2012  It is now at $1.53B. Receivables were $2.9B and now $6.24B.  Cumulative changes from 12/31/2011 – 6/30/2014 are $1.17B and $3.34B for inventories and receivables respectively.  

The cash flow indicates that the company has trouble collecting from ParentCo and yet pays cash promptly.  Revenue, EBITDA and net income are divorced from economic reality.  It is clear that the financials and the operations of the company is being manipulated.

Why does Hanergy exist? My Theory

Logically, Hanergy, the listed company has no reason to exist.  I believe, aside from the classic pump and dump stock scam, (this is 100% speculation, as I have no proof) that the ParentCo is using Hanergy to faciliate a bigger scam in Mainland China.

Below is a page from the investor presentation.

 
  

I believe ParentCo is using the company to inflate asset values (remember, ParentCo buys production lines from Hanergy) and then uses the inflated “investment” to obtain bank loans and government subsidies.

Target Price : $0

 
 
 
 

 

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

In the last week, major Chinese and HK media have written about the meteoric rise of the stock.  With the spotlight on the company, and in the current anti-corruption political environment, and the current tension in the HK legislatuive counsil, the government of China can ill afford a high rofile blowup damaging the integrity of HK's capital markets.  At the very least, the government could ask Li Hejun to stop nicely or we could see a replay of what happened in Gome.

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