|Shares Out. (in M):||75||P/E||0.0x||0.0x|
|Market Cap (in $M):||870||P/FCF||0.0x||0.0x|
|Net Debt (in $M):||20||EBIT||0||0|
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This is my working thesis/narrative of recent events, as well as how they will play out.
Sequence of events (more or less facts)
Backdrop (also more or less facts)
My interpretation (conjecture)
How Might I be wrong
When I look at valuations in the industry, I think this is a somewhat assymetric bet. I'm personally long IPI (thru options), and MOS (outright). I think POT will probably do well too, but I don't really know/care/like the Nitrogen business. Nitrogen prices have been dropping like a rock. If you are feeling good, I think long Uralkali (traded in London) will do well. K+S is the speculative bet. If the cartel reforms, the stock can close to doubling. But if the situation stays poor forever, K+S is pretty screwed... maybe 50+% downside?
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