Nidec 6594 S
October 06, 2010 - 7:20pm EST by
gary9
2010 2011
Price: 7,500.00 EPS $496.00 $578.00
Shares Out. (in M): 145 P/E 15.0x 13.0x
Market Cap (in $M): 13,109 P/FCF 35.0x 18.4x
Net Debt (in $M): 811 EBIT 1,816 2,021
TEV ($): 14,638 TEV/EBIT 11.0x 10.0x
Borrow Cost: NA

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Description

Thesis:  We believe that a great migration from HDDs to flash-based / SSD-based devices has begun.  This makes Nidec a great secular short as it is the last member of the HDD food chain to retain a growth valuation (best case ~5% normalized FCF yield).  A near term catalyst could be Oct-end earnings, where management will likely have to revise its aggressive 4Q unit guidance lower (based on very negative recent datapoints in the PC & HDD supply chain).  Strong cannibalization of HDD-based notebook demand by the iPad and other tablets, which to date, all use Flash-based memories (NAND) and not HDDs, will result in lower PC volumes and greater price competition in notebooks / HDDs.  This should eventually create volume headwinds and more than usual pricing pressure for component suppliers.  As a result, Nidec will miss out year consensus numbers and/or see multiple compression, as it trades at a very large premium to the public HDD manufacturers (STX and WDC).  We have passed the critical point of flash being cost competitive with HDDs on 64G - 128G consumer notebooks, and Nidec has admits that as much as 50% of the end markets for its motors are in consumer devices.  The power consumption, speed, and stability benefits of SSD are allowing it to being to cannibalized the enterprise HDD sector as well. 

Description: ~65% of Nidec's EBIT comes from selling HDD motors and other PC components (cooling fans, etc.).  This is the company's highest margin business (~18% EBIT margin vs overall Co. at 13 % margin), and it is dominated by "brushless" (electronic) / spindle motors that go into standard 2.5" (notebook) and 3.5" (desktop) HDDs.  This motor technology has not significantly changed since the 80s.  Nidec's HDD market share was ~60% in 2004 and has gradually increased (to close to 80%) through the downturn w/ industry capacity reductions.  There is not an outsized #2 competitor, but Minebea and Alphana Technology have competing HDD motors.  As a % of HDD motor sales, Nidec's sales split mirrors the HDD industry:  STX is 31%, WDC is 30%, Hitachi is 21%, and Samsung and Toshiba are the other two significant customers.  The majority of Nidec's HDD motor sales are conducted just-in-time, with quarterly pricing.  Even though Nidec has 80% market share in HDD motors, it is continuing to cut prices 1-2% q/q every quarter, in order to "stay on the good side of the HDD co's" (Nidec's HDD motor ASPs are ~$5 on an average total HDD ASP of ~$45).  Recent talk of -10%+ HDD ASP declines for 4Q puts significant pressure on Nidec to increase the size of its quarterly price cuts. 

The rest of Nidec's operating income is: ~15% optical components (digital camera shutter and lens components for cameras / phones); ~10%  machinery automation components (industrial robot applications); and the remainder is "mid-sized" motors (home appliances, automotive systems, etc.)  Nidec has ambitious plans to significantly increase its non-HDD motors business through acquisitions (recently paid ~$760M / ~10.5x EBIT to acquire EMR's appliance and tools motors business, a ~7% EBIT margin business post-synergies).

Mkt Cap is $13.4B USD, EV is ~$15B USD (PF for a recent $720M cash acquisition from EMR), and revs are ~$8.3B USD.  Liquidity is ~$90M USD /day.  

Updated analyst estimates of the HDD market are well below Nidec's last guidance #'s for the overall market: 

HDD Unit Forecasts, Million Units of Sales

 

 

 

 

 

Cal 3Q10

Cal 4Q10

Comment

 

Nidec's 7/23 Guidance

170

185

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gartner's 9/10 Lowered Estimate

165

172

 

 

Barclays 9/10 Lowered Estimate

165

172

Lowered 4Q from 177.

Avian's 9/15 Lowered Estimate

160

 

Would be a "near flat" comparison to Q2.

 

 

 

     Normal seasonality is +10-15%.

Average

163

172

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nidec's Divergence from Updated Avg Estimates

4%

8%

 

 

On top of this, street EPS estimates for FY10 3/11 of ¥502 are already ¥50 higher than Nidec's EPS guidance of ¥452.  The street is assuming that Nidec's guidance is conservative and also likely estimating future acquired revenues. 

Tablet PCs could be an incremental 25-30M units of demand next year, erasing 1/3 of the 10-12% average HDD unit growth rate over the last 5 years.  In the last few weeks, RSH and some U.S. HDD co.'s have mentioned greater-than-expected 2H PC unit weakness, partially from consumers delaying purchases to assess the new tablet PC offerings.  BBY's CEO mentioned on 9/15 that iPads alone had cannibalized as much as of 50% PC volumes: (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703376504575491533125103528.html?KEYWORDS=retailers+turn+to+gadgets#printMode).  That would be a much more draconian scenario in consumer HDD volumes than what is needed to make this short work.

Valuation on Street Estimates: 

 
Nidec
               
  Yen USD            
Price ¥7,500              
Shrs Out 145.1              
Mkt Cap ¥1,088,063 $13,109            
                 
Add: Debt ¥131,601              
Add: Minority Int ¥59,592              
Add: New Convert Debt ¥100,000   Note:  0% interest rate, strike is ~40% premium for ~6.5% dilutive effect.
Gross Debt ¥231,601 $2,790            
                 
Less:  Cash ¥127,374              
Less:  EMR  Motors Deal Prc ¥63,080 $760            
Less:  Cash from New Convert ¥100,000              
Gross Cash ¥164,294 $1,979            
EV ¥1,214,962 $14,638            
   Note:  Net Debt ¥67,307 $811            
            Street Street Street
  FY 3/2006 FY 3/2007 FY 3/2008 FY 3/2009 FY 3/2010 FY 3/2011 FY 3/2012 FY 3/2013
Revs ¥536,858 ¥629,667 ¥742,126 ¥613,458 ¥587,459 ¥692,953 ¥752,958 ¥800,915
                 
Gross Profit ¥123,846 ¥143,040 ¥158,216 ¥130,565 ¥151,122      
     % Sales 23.1% 22.7% 21.3% 21.3% 25.7%      
                 
EBIT ¥53,426 ¥64,009 ¥76,833 ¥51,806 ¥78,342 ¥110,481 ¥124,444 ¥134,828
     % Sales 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 8.4% 13.3% 15.9% 16.5% 16.8%
                 
EBITDA ¥79,711 ¥94,006 ¥113,167 ¥83,953 ¥107,527 ¥150,691 ¥167,784 ¥184,024
                 
EBITDA - CapEx ¥36,526 ¥54,862 ¥77,507 ¥45,452 ¥70,919 ¥85,691 ¥122,784 ¥139,024
FCF (NI + D&A - CapEx) ¥24,049 ¥30,785 ¥41,830 ¥21,999 ¥44,538 ¥34,579 ¥66,198 ¥71,862
CapEx -¥43,185 -¥39,144 -¥35,660 -¥38,501 -¥36,608 -¥65,000 -¥45,000 -¥45,000
Net Income ¥40,949 ¥39,932 ¥41,156 ¥28,353 ¥51,961 ¥70,394 ¥82,013 ¥87,677
EPS   ¥276 ¥284 ¥197 ¥373 ¥496 ¥578 ¥620
                 
                 
Multiples                
EV / Revs         2.1x 1.8x 1.6x 1.5x
EV / EBIT         15.5x 11.0x 9.8x 9.0x
EV / EBITDA         11.3x 8.1x 7.2x 6.6x
EV / EBITDA - CapEx         17.1x 14.2x 9.9x 8.7x
P / E         20.1x 15.1x 13.0x 12.1x
EV / FCF         27.3x 35.1x 18.4x 16.9x
                 
Growth                
Sales Grwth %   17% 18% -17% -4% 18% 9% 6%
EBIT Grwth %   20% 20% -33% 51% 41% 13% 8%

 Scenario Model:

        Scenarios, FY11 3/12E  
  3 Yr Avg FY09 3/10 FY10 3/11 Bad - Street Base Best
Rev ¥640,874 ¥587,459 ¥692,953 ¥752,784 ¥710,825 ¥647,674
2 Yr Rev Grwth Rate       13% 10% 5%
EBIT % 10.8% 13.3% 15.9% 16.5% 11.5% 10.5%
EBIT ¥69,251 ¥78,342 ¥110,481 ¥124,209 ¥81,745 ¥68,006
EBITDA ¥102,710 ¥108,722 ¥107,527 ¥167,709 ¥125,245 ¥111,506
Capex ¥33,693 ¥29,359 ¥65,000 ¥45,000 ¥45,000 ¥45,000
EBITDA - CapEx ¥69,016 ¥79,363 ¥85,691 ¥122,709 ¥80,245 ¥66,506
EPS ¥197 ¥373 ¥496 ¥583 ¥381 ¥310
             
EV/EBITDA - CapEx   17.1x 14.2x 11.0x 11.0x 10.0x
Price Target       ¥8,840 ¥5,620 ¥4,120
Implied P/E   20.1x 15.1x 15.2x 14.7x 13.3x
Implied EV/EBITDA   11.3x 8.1x 8.4x 7.6x 6.6x
             
Return       -18% 25% 45%
Up/down:       2.5x    
             
Probability       30% 40% 30%
Wtd Avg Price Target       ¥6,136    

Bad / Street:  13% total rev growth (assumes 5 yr avg 11% HDD unit growth continues and pricing is -5%) for 6% base rev growth annually.  Rest of revenue (90B Yen) comes from acquisitions, assuming a similar rev multiple as paid for EMR motors (and using the cash from the Nov '10 100B convert issue).  On EBIT % margin, street assumes growth  (above mgmt guidance for a decline) and that the acquired revenue is close to Nidec average EBIT % margin.

Base:  Assumes 8% HDD unit growth , -5% pricing for 3% base rev growth (+ the same amount acquired revenue).  Assume EBIT% margin contraction to near 3 year average.

Best:  Assumes 3% HHD unit growth, -5% pricing, + same amount of acquired revenue.  Assumes additional ~50bp of EBIT % pressure in the HDD business and that acquired revenue (~13% of mix) is EBIT margin dilutive in a similar amount to the EMR motors acquisition.  (~400bp lower margin x 13% of mix).

CapEx & D&A assumpions used were from conversation w/ IR.

Comps:
 
                             
                P/E       EV / EBITDA    
    Price Mkt Cap Net Debt EV   FY10 FY11 FY12   FY10 FY11 FY12  
Nidec 6594 JP ¥7,500 ¥1,088,063 ¥4,227 ¥1,214,962   15.1x 13.0x 12.1x   8.1x 7.2x 6.6x  
                             
Japanese HDD Food Chain Comps:                        
TDK, 100% HDD 6762 JP ¥4,825 ¥622,869 ¥53,129 ¥676,070   12.4x 10.7x 9.7x   4.4x 4.2x 4.0x  
NHK ~50% HDD 5991 JP ¥646 ¥152,941 ¥26,867 ¥179,939   8.6x 7.9x 7.7x   3.5x 3.4x 3.1x  
                             
U.S. HDD Companies:                          
Western Digital WDC $27.90 $6,557 -$2,334 $4,223   7.7x 6.6x 6.7x   2.6x 2.6x 2.4x  
Seagate STX $11.49 $5,745 -$13 $5,732   5.6x 5.1x 4.7x   3.1x 2.8x 2.9x  
                             
Mid-Sized / Appliance Motors Comps:                        
Baldor BEZ $41.42 $1,971 $1,110 $3,080   24.0x 16.7x 14.2x   9.8x 8.4x 7.7x  
Regal-Beloit RBC $56.43 $2,198 $101 $2,316   13.6x 11.9x 10.7x   6.9x 6.1x 5.7x  
                             
                             
                EV / EBITDA - CapEx     GP % EBIT % Rev Grwth
              FY10 FY11 FY12   CY09 CY09 TTM Last Qtr
Nidec 6594 JP           10.6x 11.8x 10.2x   26% 13% -4% 38%
                             
Japanese HDD Food Chain Comps:                        
  6762 JP           7.6x 7.0x 6.3x   24% 3% 11% 52%
  5991 JP           5.1x 4.9x 4.4x   13% 5% -8% 45%
                             
U.S. HDD Companies:                          
  WDC           4.9x 4.8x 4.1x   24% 15% 32% 66%
  STX           4.7x 4.1x 4.3x   28% 16% 16% 42%
                             
Mid-Sized / Appliance Motors Comps:                        
  BEZ           11.5x 9.6x 8.6x   29% 12%    
  RBC           7.6x 6.7x 6.2x   23% 9%    

Catalyst

H1 9/10 earnings report on 10/26 & the possibility of lower revised guidance.

Further confirmation of weak PC volumes in 2H from companies in the value chain. 

    sort by   Expand   New

    Description

    Thesis:  We believe that a great migration from HDDs to flash-based / SSD-based devices has begun.  This makes Nidec a great secular short as it is the last member of the HDD food chain to retain a growth valuation (best case ~5% normalized FCF yield).  A near term catalyst could be Oct-end earnings, where management will likely have to revise its aggressive 4Q unit guidance lower (based on very negative recent datapoints in the PC & HDD supply chain).  Strong cannibalization of HDD-based notebook demand by the iPad and other tablets, which to date, all use Flash-based memories (NAND) and not HDDs, will result in lower PC volumes and greater price competition in notebooks / HDDs.  This should eventually create volume headwinds and more than usual pricing pressure for component suppliers.  As a result, Nidec will miss out year consensus numbers and/or see multiple compression, as it trades at a very large premium to the public HDD manufacturers (STX and WDC).  We have passed the critical point of flash being cost competitive with HDDs on 64G - 128G consumer notebooks, and Nidec has admits that as much as 50% of the end markets for its motors are in consumer devices.  The power consumption, speed, and stability benefits of SSD are allowing it to being to cannibalized the enterprise HDD sector as well. 

    Description: ~65% of Nidec's EBIT comes from selling HDD motors and other PC components (cooling fans, etc.).  This is the company's highest margin business (~18% EBIT margin vs overall Co. at 13 % margin), and it is dominated by "brushless" (electronic) / spindle motors that go into standard 2.5" (notebook) and 3.5" (desktop) HDDs.  This motor technology has not significantly changed since the 80s.  Nidec's HDD market share was ~60% in 2004 and has gradually increased (to close to 80%) through the downturn w/ industry capacity reductions.  There is not an outsized #2 competitor, but Minebea and Alphana Technology have competing HDD motors.  As a % of HDD motor sales, Nidec's sales split mirrors the HDD industry:  STX is 31%, WDC is 30%, Hitachi is 21%, and Samsung and Toshiba are the other two significant customers.  The majority of Nidec's HDD motor sales are conducted just-in-time, with quarterly pricing.  Even though Nidec has 80% market share in HDD motors, it is continuing to cut prices 1-2% q/q every quarter, in order to "stay on the good side of the HDD co's" (Nidec's HDD motor ASPs are ~$5 on an average total HDD ASP of ~$45).  Recent talk of -10%+ HDD ASP declines for 4Q puts significant pressure on Nidec to increase the size of its quarterly price cuts. 

    The rest of Nidec's operating income is: ~15% optical components (digital camera shutter and lens components for cameras / phones); ~10%  machinery automation components (industrial robot applications); and the remainder is "mid-sized" motors (home appliances, automotive systems, etc.)  Nidec has ambitious plans to significantly increase its non-HDD motors business through acquisitions (recently paid ~$760M / ~10.5x EBIT to acquire EMR's appliance and tools motors business, a ~7% EBIT margin business post-synergies).

    Mkt Cap is $13.4B USD, EV is ~$15B USD (PF for a recent $720M cash acquisition from EMR), and revs are ~$8.3B USD.  Liquidity is ~$90M USD /day.  

    Updated analyst estimates of the HDD market are well below Nidec's last guidance #'s for the overall market: 

    HDD Unit Forecasts, Million Units of Sales

     

     

     

     

     

    Cal 3Q10

    Cal 4Q10

    Comment

     

    Nidec's 7/23 Guidance

    170

    185

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Gartner's 9/10 Lowered Estimate

    165

    172

     

     

    Barclays 9/10 Lowered Estimate

    165

    172

    Lowered 4Q from 177.

    Avian's 9/15 Lowered Estimate

    160

     

    Would be a "near flat" comparison to Q2.

     

     

     

         Normal seasonality is +10-15%.

    Average

    163

    172

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Nidec's Divergence from Updated Avg Estimates

    4%

    8%

     

     

    On top of this, street EPS estimates for FY10 3/11 of ¥502 are already ¥50 higher than Nidec's EPS guidance of ¥452.  The street is assuming that Nidec's guidance is conservative and also likely estimating future acquired revenues. 

    Tablet PCs could be an incremental 25-30M units of demand next year, erasing 1/3 of the 10-12% average HDD unit growth rate over the last 5 years.  In the last few weeks, RSH and some U.S. HDD co.'s have mentioned greater-than-expected 2H PC unit weakness, partially from consumers delaying purchases to assess the new tablet PC offerings.  BBY's CEO mentioned on 9/15 that iPads alone had cannibalized as much as of 50% PC volumes: (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703376504575491533125103528.html?KEYWORDS=retailers+turn+to+gadgets#printMode).  That would be a much more draconian scenario in consumer HDD volumes than what is needed to make this short work.

    Valuation on Street Estimates: 

     
    Nidec
                   
      Yen USD            
    Price ¥7,500              
    Shrs Out 145.1              
    Mkt Cap ¥1,088,063 $13,109            
                     
    Add: Debt ¥131,601              
    Add: Minority Int ¥59,592              
    Add: New Convert Debt ¥100,000   Note:  0% interest rate, strike is ~40% premium for ~6.5% dilutive effect.
    Gross Debt ¥231,601 $2,790            
                     
    Less:  Cash ¥127,374              
    Less:  EMR  Motors Deal Prc ¥63,080 $760            
    Less:  Cash from New Convert ¥100,000              
    Gross Cash ¥164,294 $1,979            
    EV ¥1,214,962 $14,638            
       Note:  Net Debt ¥67,307 $811            
                Street Street Street
      FY 3/2006 FY 3/2007 FY 3/2008 FY 3/2009 FY 3/2010 FY 3/2011 FY 3/2012 FY 3/2013
    Revs ¥536,858 ¥629,667 ¥742,126 ¥613,458 ¥587,459 ¥692,953 ¥752,958 ¥800,915
                     
    Gross Profit ¥123,846 ¥143,040 ¥158,216 ¥130,565 ¥151,122      
         % Sales 23.1% 22.7% 21.3% 21.3% 25.7%      
                     
    EBIT ¥53,426 ¥64,009 ¥76,833 ¥51,806 ¥78,342 ¥110,481 ¥124,444 ¥134,828
         % Sales 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 8.4% 13.3% 15.9% 16.5% 16.8%
                     
    EBITDA ¥79,711 ¥94,006 ¥113,167 ¥83,953 ¥107,527 ¥150,691 ¥167,784 ¥184,024
                     
    EBITDA - CapEx ¥36,526 ¥54,862 ¥77,507 ¥45,452 ¥70,919 ¥85,691 ¥122,784 ¥139,024
    FCF (NI + D&A - CapEx) ¥24,049 ¥30,785 ¥41,830 ¥21,999 ¥44,538 ¥34,579 ¥66,198 ¥71,862
    CapEx -¥43,185 -¥39,144 -¥35,660 -¥38,501 -¥36,608 -¥65,000 -¥45,000 -¥45,000
    Net Income ¥40,949 ¥39,932 ¥41,156 ¥28,353 ¥51,961 ¥70,394 ¥82,013 ¥87,677
    EPS   ¥276 ¥284 ¥197 ¥373 ¥496 ¥578 ¥620
                     
                     
    Multiples                
    EV / Revs         2.1x 1.8x 1.6x 1.5x
    EV / EBIT         15.5x 11.0x 9.8x 9.0x
    EV / EBITDA         11.3x 8.1x 7.2x 6.6x
    EV / EBITDA - CapEx         17.1x 14.2x 9.9x 8.7x
    P / E         20.1x 15.1x 13.0x 12.1x
    EV / FCF         27.3x 35.1x 18.4x 16.9x
                     
    Growth                
    Sales Grwth %   17% 18% -17% -4% 18% 9% 6%
    EBIT Grwth %   20% 20% -33% 51% 41% 13% 8%

     Scenario Model:

            Scenarios, FY11 3/12E  
      3 Yr Avg FY09 3/10 FY10 3/11 Bad - Street Base Best
    Rev ¥640,874 ¥587,459 ¥692,953 ¥752,784 ¥710,825 ¥647,674
    2 Yr Rev Grwth Rate       13% 10% 5%
    EBIT % 10.8% 13.3% 15.9% 16.5% 11.5% 10.5%
    EBIT ¥69,251 ¥78,342 ¥110,481 ¥124,209 ¥81,745 ¥68,006
    EBITDA ¥102,710 ¥108,722 ¥107,527 ¥167,709 ¥125,245 ¥111,506
    Capex ¥33,693 ¥29,359 ¥65,000 ¥45,000 ¥45,000 ¥45,000
    EBITDA - CapEx ¥69,016 ¥79,363 ¥85,691 ¥122,709 ¥80,245 ¥66,506
    EPS ¥197 ¥373 ¥496 ¥583 ¥381 ¥310
                 
    EV/EBITDA - CapEx   17.1x 14.2x 11.0x 11.0x 10.0x
    Price Target       ¥8,840 ¥5,620 ¥4,120
    Implied P/E   20.1x 15.1x 15.2x 14.7x 13.3x
    Implied EV/EBITDA   11.3x 8.1x 8.4x 7.6x 6.6x
                 
    Return       -18% 25% 45%
    Up/down:       2.5x    
                 
    Probability       30% 40% 30%
    Wtd Avg Price Target       ¥6,136    

    Bad / Street:  13% total rev growth (assumes 5 yr avg 11% HDD unit growth continues and pricing is -5%) for 6% base rev growth annually.  Rest of revenue (90B Yen) comes from acquisitions, assuming a similar rev multiple as paid for EMR motors (and using the cash from the Nov '10 100B convert issue).  On EBIT % margin, street assumes growth  (above mgmt guidance for a decline) and that the acquired revenue is close to Nidec average EBIT % margin.

    Base:  Assumes 8% HDD unit growth , -5% pricing for 3% base rev growth (+ the same amount acquired revenue).  Assume EBIT% margin contraction to near 3 year average.

    Best:  Assumes 3% HHD unit growth, -5% pricing, + same amount of acquired revenue.  Assumes additional ~50bp of EBIT % pressure in the HDD business and that acquired revenue (~13% of mix) is EBIT margin dilutive in a similar amount to the EMR motors acquisition.  (~400bp lower margin x 13% of mix).

    CapEx & D&A assumpions used were from conversation w/ IR.

    Comps:
     
                                 
                    P/E       EV / EBITDA    
        Price Mkt Cap Net Debt EV   FY10 FY11 FY12   FY10 FY11 FY12  
    Nidec 6594 JP ¥7,500 ¥1,088,063 ¥4,227 ¥1,214,962   15.1x 13.0x 12.1x   8.1x 7.2x 6.6x  
                                 
    Japanese HDD Food Chain Comps:                        
    TDK, 100% HDD 6762 JP ¥4,825 ¥622,869 ¥53,129 ¥676,070   12.4x 10.7x 9.7x   4.4x 4.2x 4.0x  
    NHK ~50% HDD 5991 JP ¥646 ¥152,941 ¥26,867 ¥179,939   8.6x 7.9x 7.7x   3.5x 3.4x 3.1x  
                                 
    U.S. HDD Companies:                          
    Western Digital WDC $27.90 $6,557 -$2,334 $4,223   7.7x 6.6x 6.7x   2.6x 2.6x 2.4x  
    Seagate STX $11.49 $5,745 -$13 $5,732   5.6x 5.1x 4.7x   3.1x 2.8x 2.9x  
                                 
    Mid-Sized / Appliance Motors Comps:                        
    Baldor BEZ $41.42 $1,971 $1,110 $3,080   24.0x 16.7x 14.2x   9.8x 8.4x 7.7x  
    Regal-Beloit RBC $56.43 $2,198 $101 $2,316   13.6x 11.9x 10.7x   6.9x 6.1x 5.7x  
                                 
                                 
                    EV / EBITDA - CapEx     GP % EBIT % Rev Grwth
                  FY10 FY11 FY12   CY09 CY09 TTM Last Qtr
    Nidec 6594 JP           10.6x 11.8x 10.2x   26% 13% -4% 38%
                                 
    Japanese HDD Food Chain Comps:                        
      6762 JP           7.6x 7.0x 6.3x   24% 3% 11% 52%
      5991 JP           5.1x 4.9x 4.4x   13% 5% -8% 45%
                                 
    U.S. HDD Companies:                          
      WDC           4.9x 4.8x 4.1x   24% 15% 32% 66%
      STX           4.7x 4.1x 4.3x   28% 16% 16% 42%
                                 
    Mid-Sized / Appliance Motors Comps:                        
      BEZ           11.5x 9.6x 8.6x   29% 12%    
      RBC           7.6x 6.7x 6.2x   23% 9%    

    Catalyst

    H1 9/10 earnings report on 10/26 & the possibility of lower revised guidance.

    Further confirmation of weak PC volumes in 2H from companies in the value chain. 

    Messages


    SubjectRE: thoughts on results
    Entry11/03/2010 09:26 PM
    Membergary9
    Results confirmed the thesis in several respects.  But who says short selling rewards being correct? I guess it got too popular and went against the crowd at least in the short term. 
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