2015 | 2016 | ||||||
Price: | 78.00 | EPS | 2.13 | 2.48 | |||
Shares Out. (in M): | 39 | P/E | 37 | 32 | |||
Market Cap (in $M): | 3,042 | P/FCF | 38 | 33 | |||
Net Debt (in $M): | 210 | EBIT | 134 | 150 | |||
TEV (in $M): | 3,315 | TEV/EBIT | 25 | 22 | |||
Borrow Cost: | Available 0-15% cost |
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Historicals | |||||||
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
North America | |||||||
Company owned rest | 533.3 | 503.8 | 503.3 | 525.8 | 592.2 | 635.3 | 701.9 |
Franchise royalties | 59.7 | 61.0 | 69.6 | 73.7 | 79.6 | 81.7 | 89.4 |
Franchise development fees | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Domestic supply chain | 431.7 | 417.7 | 454.5 | 508.2 | 545.9 | 578.9 | 629.5 |
Other | 61.4 | 54.0 | 52.0 | 50.9 | 51.2 | 53.3 | 74.2 |
Total NA Revenue | 1087.6 | 1037.1 | 1080.0 | 1159.3 | 1269.7 | 1350.4 | 1495.7 |
International | |||||||
Franchise/franch development | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 16.3 | 19.9 | 22.0 | 25.7 |
Company owned & supply chain | 25.8 | 28.2 | 33.2 | 42.2 | 53.0 | 66.7 | 76.7 |
Total Intn'l Reve | 38.7 | 41.5 | 46.4 | 58.6 | 72.9 | 88.6 | 102.5 |
Total Papa John Revenue | 1126.3 | 1078.5 | 1126.4 | 1217.9 | 1342.7 | 1439.0 | 1598.1 |
Adj Operating Income* | 89.7 | 76.4 | 65.7 | 87.0 | 99.8 | 106.5 | 117.6 |
OPM | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
Diluted wtd avg shs o/s - split adj | 56.5 | 55.8 | 52.9 | 50.6 | 47.8 | 44.2 | 41.7 |
Stated Diluted EPS | 0.65 | 1.03 | 0.99 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 1.55 | 1.75 |
Other metrics | |||||||
Systemwide Sales | |||||||
NA owned stores** | 592 | 588 | 591 | 598 | 648 | 665 | 686 |
NA franchised stores | 2260 | 2255 | 2344 | 2463 | 2556 | 2621 | 2654 |
International franchised stores | 505 | 600 | 690 | 792 | 911 | 1084 | 1274 |
NA comp growth - owned | 1.7% | -0.5% | -0.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% |
NA comp growth - franchise | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 6.2% | |||
International comp growth -franch | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | |||
*Adjusted Op Income adds back restructuring charges and eliminates impact of BIBP purchasing entity which was used | |||||||
to smooth commodity costs for franchisees. BIBP was shut down in early 2011. | |||||||
**Includes 200 JV stores | |||||||
Projections | 2014a | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||
Company owned rest | 701.9 | 758.0 | 803.5 | 839.6 | 877.4 | ||
Franchise royalties | 89.4 | 96.6 | 102.4 | 107.0 | 111.8 | ||
Franchise development fees | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||
Domestic supply chain | 629.5 | 679.9 | 720.6 | 753.1 | 787.0 | ||
Other | 74.2 | 77.9 | 81.8 | 85.9 | 90.2 | ||
Total NA Revenue | 1,495.7 | 1,613.1 | 1,709.1 | 1,786.4 | 1,867.2 | ||
International | |||||||
Franchise/franch development | 25.7 | 28.0 | 32.7 | 38.1 | 44.3 | ||
Company owned & supply chain | 76.7 | 83.6 | 97.4 | 113.5 | 132.2 | ||
Total Intn'l Reve | 102.5 | 111.7 | 130.1 | 151.6 | 176.6 | ||
Total Papa John Revenue | 1,598.1 | 1,724.8 | 1,839.2 | 1,937.9 | 2,043.7 | ||
Operating Income | 117.6 | 133.8 | 149.5 | 163.6 | 179.0 | ||
OPM | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | ||
Less Interest Expense | 4.1 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | ||
Assume debt stays constant | 230.5 | 230.5 | 230.5 | 230.5 | 230.5 | ||
Less Taxes @ 32% | 36.6 | 41.0 | 46.0 | 50.5 | 55.4 | ||
Less Minority | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.3 | ||
Net Income to shareholders | 72.6 | 82.5 | 92.9 | 102.3 | 112.4 | ||
Shares o/s - year end | 39.8 | 38.7 | 37.5 | 36.2 | 34.8 | ||
Asssume all NI spent on buybacks @ 78 | |||||||
EPS | 1.83 | 2.13 | 2.48 | 2.82 | 3.23 | ||
EPS growth | 16.7% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 14.5% | |||
At $78/share | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | ||
P/E | 43 | 37 | 32 | 28 | 24 | ||
EV/EBITA | 29 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 |
-Comp growth weakens
-Commodities/labor costs pressure margins
-Price competition increases
-Enthusiasm for restauarant stocks wanes
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