QUORUM INFORMATION TECHNOL QIS
March 08, 2016 - 4:06pm EST by
SlackTide
2016 2017
Price: 0.35 EPS 0 0
Shares Out. (in M): 51M P/E 0 0
Market Cap (in $M): 18 P/FCF 17.2x 10.6x
Net Debt (in $M): -5 EBIT 3 3
TEV ($): 13 TEV/EBIT 5.1x 4.1x

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  • Personal Account Idea
  • Recurring Revenues
  • Software
  • Canada
  • Asset light
  • Organic Growth
  • Multi-bagger

Description

 
Shares Outstanding: 50,691,206
Share Price: $0.35 CAD
Market Cap: $17.836 million
Net Cash, Pro-forma for recent equity sale: $4.86 million
Enterprise Value: $13.04 million
 
  • QIS provides an asymmetric bet to the upside, with multi-bagger potential and limited risk of permanent capital loss or drawdown.
  • QIS has doubled their total addressable market in the last few quarters and has other meaningful new revenue drivers.
  • In a conservative theoretical run-off scenario, we estimate the shares have >50% upside.
  • Shares are egregiously cheap on an absolute and relative basis, at under 9x FCF.
  • The business model is an attractive asset-light model with the majority of revenue recurring.
Exectutive Summary
 
QIS provides mission critical dealer management system software for auto dealerships across Canada and the US (revenue mix: 75% Canada, 25% US). QIS has grown steadily and is hitting a positive inflection point in both revenue growth and free cash flow generation by reaching a more meaningful and sustainable operating scale. The company has several years of low risk, high visibility growth ahead
of it due to recent expansion initiatives for integration with more OEMs and a partnership with a large Canadian auto dealer group, providing clear cut catalysts over the next year and beyond.
QIS checks most of the boxes in terms of business model characteristics we want in our longs. It is an asset-light business model with solid downside protection due to recurring revenue and positive
operating leverage combined with high incremental margins associated with each dollar of revenue growth. QIS is currently a “small business” that has turned the corner and is now showing good scalability of cash flows. It is growing quickly yet is hugely cash flow positive and has a large net cash position with a lot of capital flexibility.
 
We believe total revenue growth will exceed 20% in 2016 with recurring revenue growth exceeding 35%, reaching approximately $10.3mm (in CAD). At the current enterprise value of $13mm we are paying only 1.26x EV/Recurring revenue for a profitable revenue stream that is growing 30%+, has only ~1.3customer churn annually and has 90%+ incremental operating margins. It is rare that any software firm trades below an EV of 2x recurring revenue and those that do are usually shrinking, burning cash and structurally challenged (e.g. Support.com)not low churn, cash flow positive and growing quickly like QIS. I believe QIS’s discount stems solely from being under the radar and its limited trading liquidity. At a valuation of just 3.15x our 2016 recurring revenue estimate (a still semi-distressed valuation level) the EV would be $32.4 million, giving the equity 92% upside. At 3.15x our 2017 recurring revenue estimate the equity has 130% of upside. Trading and transaction comps are currently in the 6x recurring revenue range. In terms of downside protection and margin of uncertainty on growth execution, we believe there is >50% upside even in a theoretical run-off scenario where the company halts growth and just tries to harvest cash flows from its existing customer base.
 
Business Overview
 
Quorum is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, with a support center in St. John’s Newfoundland and a US office in Michigan. They went public at the height of the internet bubble in 2000 via a Capital Pool
Company (equivalent of a Canadian SPAC). The software QIS sells is referred to as Dealer Management System (DMS) software in the industry and it covers everything from inventory management and sales
assistance/service department customer interactions (like customer relationship management software) to service center workflows. In other words, anything an employee at a dealership might do or document is captured electronically through the DMS. The DMS also integrates with the OEMS and many third parties, such as auto finance companies and consumer credit bureau services. OEMs will only
work with a limited number of certified vendors, providing meaningful barriers to entry for the industry. Here is the product brochure for Quorum DMS called “Xsellerator”, to give you a better overview of
 
Outline of DMS Services
 
Sales Workflow: 1) Showroom 2) Vehicle Search 3) Desking (e.g. a Write Up of quotes and scenario analysis) 4) F&I 5) Back Office 6) CRM
Parts Workflow: 1) CRM 2) Inventory Search 3) Price and Quoting 4) Inventory Processing 5) Inventory Management
Service Workflow: 1) CRM 2) Service Appointment Management 3) Electronic Work Orders 4) Service Quoting 5) Work Order Closing 6) CRM
Accounting Workflow: 1) Vehicle Inventory 2) Vehicle Sales 3) Service 4) Part Sales 5) Parts Inventory
 
Revenue Overview
 
QIS has four main revenue drivers.
 
1) Support Revenue – this is the monthly subscription revenue that makes up the core of the business. It is our understanding that there is a fixed charge on a dealer rooftop basis and the number of employees at the dealership is of little consequence in the contract pricing. What is most important for this line item is just that the dealers actually stay open. This is very scalable revenue, with a centralized
call center supporting customers. We believe Support sales to have 85%+ incremental operating margins from its current base level. Sales from the Communicator product (more on this in a bit) are also
embedded within Support. This segment, which is the recurring revenue piece, accounts for 75% of total revenue. The main software, Xsellerator, is sold purely on a monthly subscription basis and has an
ARPU of ~$2,050/month per dealership (also referred to as a rooftop). As QIS penetrates into larger “A” class dealerships, a move we think is forthcoming given a recent deal with Tricor Automotive Group-
http://tricorauto.com/, we expect the ARPU to rise materially from here.
 
Management would tell you that their differentiating value proposition is module integration, database structure, and drastically less
nickel-and-diming sales tactics (which makes for a more satisfied and loyal customer base). For instance, a typical strategy in software is to “land and expand,” meaning get your foot in the door by
 
 
selling one piece of software to the customer, then cross-selling more software. On the contrary, with XSELLERATOR, outside of a few specific initiatives, there is only one integrated system to pay for, with
semi-annual updates being included as part of the support package. If anything, Quorum has lots of room for price escalators to be built into contracts. As we understand after many calls with management and customers, prices haven’t been raised at all in at least the last ten years, which is quite baffling…but right now they are stealing market share by having the reputation as being the lower cost
but equal functionality solution to the larger players. A verbatim quote from a customer is "a key advantage for Quorum is their technology. Large incumbents built their system pre-Windows, which is
real dinosaur tech that they've been taping and tacking on ever since." We estimate that QIS cost ~50-60% less than CDK or Reynolds & Reynolds despite the same functionality, and better architecture, UI,
and adaptability for Xsellerator. Any future price hikes will fall directly to the bottom line. We would like to see, at a minimum, price escalators built into new contracts at a CPI rate.
 
2) Support Plus Revenue this is subscription based training services. This encompasses a $700 one- time licensing fee per rooftop and then a $30/month/user subscription fee. We anticipate Support Plus revenue exceeding $1mm from 2016 and beyond. This is very profitable at a ~60% operating margin.
 
3) New Installations this revenue is generated when the dealership pays for hardware and implementation (Server cost, Microsoft user license). QIS receives ~$35-40k in revenue per new
installation, but this is a breakeven segment for the company. New Installations are the best leading indicator of new business for Support and Support Plus revenue. Given that we expect an acceleration of
New Installations, this will temporarily lower margins but increase the recurring revenue and cash flow run-rate. Management has invested in new implementation capacity to try and keep up with demand
and we forecast about 35 net rooftop adds in 2016. We anticipate an increase in the quarterly new rooftop install rate from ~6/quarter in two of the last three quarters to a 9+ quarterly rate in 2016. New
installation revenue would jump to about a $360k+ quarterly rate if our estimate of rooftop growth is accurate. This is something to watch and is really the key leading indicator.
 
QIS ended 2015 with ~307 rooftops and historically has experienced only 1.3% customer churn annually. They have grown the installed base of rooftops by a 10.6% CAGR since 2004 and we think can
accelerate growth a bit from here due to a few recent positive developments and a deep pipeline of low hanging fruit to pick, in terms of rooftop growth. 2009 was the only year that Quorum’s installed
rooftops declined, and even then only by 2% due to a ~90% concentration in GM dealers at the time and the GM bankruptcy forced many dealerships to shut down. We think the Great Recession offers the
ultimate stress-test and QIS sailed right through it, posting their first EBIT positive year (EBIT positive every year since) and rebounding from 222 dealers to 240 the next year.
 
4) Transitions this is revenue generated from upgrading customers to the latest version of Microsoft and installing new hardware. This is a lower margin segment and declining, with the bulk of
Transitions on the existing dealer installed base completed in 2013 and 2014. Gross margins for this segment are around 30% and operating margins around 10% or lower. We conservatively model this as
declining about 20% a year the next several years.
 
Growth Catalysts
 
New OEM Integration:
 
QIS has meaningfully expanded their total addressable market in the last few quarters as they’ve completed integration with Ford and Toyota and now have the ability to sell to dealerships under those
brands. Quorum now works with the following OEMs: GM, Toyota, Nissan, Chrysler, Hyundai, Kia, Subaru, NAPA Auto Parts stores, and Bumper to Bumper auto parts stores. Pretty much every existing
dealership already uses a DMS, so Quorum’s growth comes from:
1) Competitive displacement
2) Dealership growth
3) Existing customers acquiring more rooftops and converting DMS to Quorum (similar to #1)
4) Support Plus revenue and other new initiatives such as Communicator messaging revenue.
 
The Toyota integration work was done throughout 2014 (all of the cost are behind them) and the first Toyota dealer was added in January. They added 10 Toyota dealerships total in 2015, the maximum
allowed per an agreement with Toyota. In late July 2015 they announced their intent to integrate with Ford Canada through a partnership with Oxlo, a software integration expert: http://www.oxlo.com/automotive-solutions-portfolio/
 
QIS only had to pay Oxlo a one-time $25k fee, with no recurring fees thereafter for the help getting integrated into Ford. These were very attractive terms for QIS.
On February 4th, 2016, QIS announced they had fully implemented their first Ford dealership in Canada. Press release here: http://files.ctctcdn.com/0d84405e101/04571cc1-59f4-4c5b-aafe-99c054597054.pdf.
 
The TAM has expanded meaningfully, with both the US and Canadian TAM doubling from 2014 by the end of 2016, from roughly 3,000 dealerships to 6,000+ when now including dealerships of the newly integrated OEMs. In addition to the recent Toyota and Ford/Lincoln integration, Nissan US and VW (Canada + US) are forthcoming as well. Between 2014 and the end of 2016 they will have spent at most $850k to double both their Canadian and US TAM. By our estimates, they only need to add 4 dealerships for each OEM to breakeven on the necessary R&D/Cap-Ex, which is almost entirely behind them at this point. Given this low hurdle rate, they could breakeven within a single quarter on these new OEM integrations. From there, each incremental dealer will add profitable revenue at 85-90% EBIT margins. Also, they will receive government grant money for integrating these new OEMs, making the TAM expansion potentially "free." Many dealer owners that have, say GM and Toyota dealerships, are big fans of Quorum and have their GM dealerships on Xsellerator and can now transition their Toyota rooftops. We view these new OEM integrations as game changing with low execution risk on lots of low hanging fruit within the existing customer base that own multiple dealership brands.
 
An additional point of interest is that it’s our understanding that they are working with the government on a very beneficial grant/loan, whereby they would receive $2 million dollars to fund future OEM
integrations. A chunk of this would be grant money, meaning literally free money that does not need to be repaid. The remaining piece would be a 0% interest rate loan and would only need to be paid back if the company failed to hit certain milestones by 2018 with their Nissan and Volkswagen integrations.
 
Dealertrack exit from Canada at the end of 2016:
 
 
 
Dealertrack entered the Canada market in 2012 by purchasing iCONNECT Direct from Ford of Canada. Dealertrack announced in January of 2015 that they will exit the Canada market, leaving their 130-135
rooftops up for grabs. Although Dealertrack officially recommended Serti as a replacement, we would note this recommendation came before Quorum reached an agreement with Ford to provide integration
and that Quorum management has already targeted a material number of rooftops it believe it can take. “The gloves are off,” the CEO told us recently in regards to competing for these rooftops. The
targeted rooftops are in a similar vein to the reference customer we spoke with, who may have several GM dealerships operating under Quorum but have additional Ford dealerships they can now convert to
Quorumand those are the accounts they are aggressively pursuing.
 
New Revenue Initiatives:
 
Two new high margin, high growth, mostly recurring revenue streams that can act as additional growth catalysts and can add incremental cash flow, as well as downside protection in the event that rooftop
growth does not go as well as planned. The first is a revenue stream mentioned already called Support Plus, which is a subscription based training program designed to train new employees (they estimate employee turnover can be as high as 30% a year at the dealership level) as well as provide optimization training. In October of 2014 they launched eQUIP uTRAIN, which is an extension of the previously launched eQUIP product. Every month, a trainer does a live optimization training for employees, which would then go into an archive library and remain available for subscribing dealers. The uTRAIN program is new, and is basically an online training course for new employees designed to get them up to speed on the software as quickly as possible. Within the eQUIP uTRAIN landscape, they are also taking very specific “Make More Money” (M3) initiatives in an effort to show that the software can help make and save money for the customer. In January of 2015 they announced positive results from some “fully trained” dealerships, claiming dealerships that were given more advanced training were selling more products, both cars and subsequent service visits. In April, they claimed each dealer was selling $68k incrementally more per month if they participated in the full (M3) training program. At the time of the last quarterly results press release, 71 dealers, or roughly 24% of their total, were subscribers. However, we believe this will materially increase through at least 2018, as the government recently announced a training incentive program to subsidize up to $10,000 in training expenses per employee, per year. The gist of this program is that the government will pay for 2/3s of the cost, while the employer is on the hook for the other 1/3. In other words, Quorum is now a direct beneficiary of Canada government subsidies that flow through the dealers once trainees complete training. This program goes through at least 2018, and the government has already been touting its success, indicating an extension is a real possibility. Bullish commentary from management has indicated they are literally having training capacity issues and that they have several six figure commitments from various dealers giving us confidence that Support Plus can get above or near $1.2 million in revenue for full year 2015, and can go far above that level in the following 2-3 years.
 
This is all very high margin incremental revenue, with the only cost being for the trainer(s). The operating margin on this piece of the business should be at least 60%+, meaning a $1,000,000 in additional revenues will add an incremental $600,000 in EBIT a year.
 
Communicator Messaging:
 
The other new revenue stream is from the messenger product which they call Communicator, which is essentially a text and instant message communication system between employees and customers. For
instance, it can automate a text to customers when a vehicle has been serviced and is ready for pick-up. It’s our understanding they receive a 6 cent fee for each message sent (while paying only 1 cent per
message back to their telecom affiliate). We believe this will remain a relatively small, but very high margin business, probably in the range of $200k a year run-rate by mid-2016 (~3 million messages sent),
but at 80%+ operating margin this is also a substantial driver in terms of valuation contribution. Communicator revenue goes into the Support revenue line.
 
Valuation
 
There are a few ways to look at valuation. I’ve got acrophobia, so I look down before I look up.
 
Run-off value exercise:
 
Quorum generates about $24,000 per year in revenue off each rooftop (based on a $2,000/month). We can quickly confirm this by looking at their quarterly maintenance revenue line, which tends to line up
with this number (it is generally slightly higher, about $2,050). From this $24,000, we estimate a maintenance operating margin. After extensive discussion with the CFO on this run-off exercise, we believe that operating margin could be 50% today due to 20% COGS given the centralized call center, perhaps 10% of sales G&A, 10% on R&D (which includes capex), and another 10% sales & marketing to help maintain the existing customer base. Obviously this number scales even better with more size and the more rooftops they add the higher the margin goes (Reynolds & Reynolds is currently getting greater than 50%). The incremental margin is 85-90% for support revenue. At 300 rooftops we are estimating they could generate 50% margins on their maintenance. At
400, perhaps this moves closer to 60%. So the $24,000 in revenue/rooftop gets us to $14,400/rooftop in operating profit. We employ a tax rate of 15%. We note that given their tax assets, the ability to generate more tax assets through capitalized R&D, and their historical 0% cash tax rate, we do not believe the company will pay any material cash taxes for at least the next 4-5 years. As long as they spend ~10% of sales on R&D, we believe the cash tax rate will always be materially below the Canada corporate tax rate. Nevertheless, we plug in 15% for conservatism.
 
From there, using a 12% discount rate (conservative for a steady maintenance stream in our view) and historical churn slightly above their long term average at 1.5% (~4 rooftops a year is 1.3%), the Lifetime Value calculation of one rooftop is ~$75,556 per rooftop, making the value of 300 rooftops closer to $23 million. Adding in net cash of $4.8mm post recent share sale and by our estimation the current rooftop base alone plust the cash is worth $28 million, 150% of the current market cap. This exercise does not give any value to Support Plus, Communicator, or any future growth.
 
Underlying FCF will have essentially tripled from 2014 to 2015 (from a small base) to around $1 million CAD, even though it will show up as being relatively flat, due to a $500k payment to Microsoft that
should have been paid in 2014 that was actually paid in 2015. After factoring this in and looking at maintenance capex versus expansion capex with additional OEMs, the stock is yielding nearly 15%+ on
its underlying 2016 FCF. A yield far too high for a fast growing mission critical software company.
 
EV/EBITDA is at about 8.7x on a LTM basis and 6.4x on our NTM estimates. EV/uFCF is at about 8.8x our NTM estimates. This is very cheap on an absolute basis, and egregiously cheap when considering the
type of business and growth profile and compared to trading comps. We view CDK as the best pure-play public trading comp. CDK trades at 15.3x 2016 EBITDA estimates, but is growing top line at only 2% compared to QIS’ 20%+. CDK trades at 34x 2016 FCF estimates.
 
As should be obvious by now, an important part of the thesis is that cash flows will improve materially in 2016 and beyond. In 2014, the company reported $731k in total FCF (after subtracting capitalized R&D and capex), up from -$119k in 2013. They have told us they aim to be similar to that for full year 2015, but with a couple of caveats that we believe shows that true underlying FCF is growing substantially.
 
First, in 2015 they paid somewhere between $350k-$450k in Microsoft licensing payments from their Transitions revenue that should have been paid in 2014 and ended up as an Accrued Expense. If you
look at their income statement you will see this expense hit their gross margin in Q4 as a non-cash charge and the liability line item spike. This is actually a bit of sloppy accounting, in our opinion, in that
the costs were not matched perfectly with the revenue (the revenue comes from the Transition line and was recognized earlier) and the cash is now matching a year later. It is our understanding that this is a
one-time item and that typically revenues, expenses, and cash flows from Transitions are matched based on when they were incurred. A chunk of this accrued expense was seen in Q2 of 2015 (~$300k),
and then an additional hit in Q3 and Q4 masked true cash flow generation capability. The upshot is that 2014 FCF is overstated by roughly $400k while 2015 will be understated by $400k. Given their goal to be flat this year with FCF, the effective FCF from 2014 was closer to $331,000 while the effective implied 2015 FCF will be closer to $1,100,000, a >3x increase assuming the reported FCF comes in flat y/y as management has implied.
 
We believe that with a combination of accelerating growth in new dealership additions (driven from the catalysts described above), a material increase in high margin Training and Communicator revenue, and some potential R&D cash savings in 2016 (from the government grant), QIS can continue to show rapid improvement in underlying FCF.
 
As stated, we believe incremental margins are 85-90% and they will add 40+ dealers over 2016. To contemplate the incremental run rate cash flows of adding just 60 net new dealerships over the next
two years, consider that each new rooftop generates about $24k in revenue per year, and that the incremental margin of a new rooftop is between 85-90%. This is ~$20k in incremental EBIT and since the company pays no cash taxes and minimal interest, each additional rooftop could effectively add $20k in FCF.
 
We assume they end 2016 at roughly 350 rooftops, up from 290 at the end of 2014 and 2015 year end estimate of 307, which is in line with management’s commentary. This would mean adding ~3.58/month in 2016 (+43 total). The run rate cash flow additions from these 43 net additions (given these are added throughout the year, it’s not meant to be a forecast of incremental 2016 cash flows) would add $860,000 million of FCF from the current run-rate. This is material relative to the $13 million EV. This also does not assume any cross-selling of eQUIP uTRAIN or Communicator, even though we expect new customers will generally be taking full advantage of those products, further juicing cash flow growth.
 
By 2019 with 450+ rooftops by year end, we have them at $4+ million of FCF, with the Q4 2019 annualized run-rate even higher. At a multiple of just 15x (less than 1/2 that of CDK’s current no-growth
FCF multiple), that is 4x upside to an EV of $60mm versus $14.9mm currently. As another sanity check these estimates would put them at only 3.8x EV/Sales, still at a discount to CDK’s no-growth multiple.
With all of the excess cash, management and the Board plan to buyback stock or initiate a sizeable dividend in about one year’s time.
 
Recent Events
 
The company recently completed a share offering via private placement. Raising the funds were not necessary, so it was unfortunate to dilute shareholders at a low valuation, but by offering a large block
of shares to customers and dealer groups they continue to cement their own growth pipeline with aligned customers who have a financial interest and incentive to see them grow. Management and the
board members also participated in the share offering personally.
 
http://quorum.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/quorum-information-technologies-inc-announces-3-
15-million-private-placement-an-tsx-venture-qis-201512111036416001
 
In conjunction with the share sale they added Joseph Campbell, CEO of Tricor Automotive Group, to the Board. It is our view that both Joe Campbell and Tricor have solid reputations and are viewed as key
opinion leaders within the Canadian auto dealership industry and that this stealth move is ultimately setting up Tricor to force all of its dealers to use Quorum for DMS. This would provide an additional
potential rooftop pipeline of 300+ for Quorum over the next few years (this would double the size of the business). In addition to Tricor’s current 150 rooftops, they are looking to actively acquire more with a
stated goal of reaching about 300 rooftops within a few years. The inroads into Tricor’s dealers will build Quorum’s reputation among the A-class dealers and dealer group, opening up even more high ARPU
growth opportunities in the future.
 
Ownership
 
It’s worth mentioning that ~25% of the stock is owned by customers of the company (who historically buy into the share offerings), roughly 8-9% is owned by original investor Larry Shelley (his ownership
went below 10% in the latest proxy but it’s our understanding he still holds a material position near the 10% reporting threshold), and another 9% is owned by board members and management (including
5.5% by CEO Maury Marks), and we estimate just under 10% is owned by Tricor via the recent share sale. As you can see the majority of shares are owned by these long term oriented investors with a
vested interest seeing the company succeed. A major risk for a short term drawdown would be one of these large shareholders trying exit their position in a hurry.
 
Risks
 
  • Execution
  • Risk mitigant: You can say that since we have invested in the company in 2014, management has hit every target they have told us they would hit, within a dealership or two (with upside on average revenue per dealer). They have generally been relatively conservative with us when laying out any sort of forecast or projections. However,
 
 
management has told us their biggest worry is execution risk and hence why they are
targeting lower growth rates than what the opportunity set actually is (e.g. they are
delaying implementing Tricor dealerships because they want to "get it right"). They have
an embedded pipeline of growth with more new business than they can handle and
enough rooftops just within the Tricor dealer group to keep them busy with accelerating
growth in rooftops for years to come.
  • Cost out of control/cash flow does not materialize in the near term. The company could stray from their core auto DMS and get distracted by some other shiny new object either in terms of new growth initiatives or acquisitions.
  • Risk mitigant: We are paying such a cheap valuation, ~50% below run-off value, that we feel we have a margin of uncertainty built in to our assumptions.
  • Size/trading liquidity is generally limited.
  • Risk mitigant: Unfortunately, we do not has as much of a mitigant on this risk factor, other than having a long term timeframe and hopefully we are right on the business fundamentals and they grow and thus the shares become more liquid over time with more institutional attention. This is probably the largest risk and deal killer for most VIC members.
  • Macro economic weakness
  • Risk mitigant: There are many ways to hedge a weak Canadian macro environment with liquid securities. It would really take a lot of prolonged macro stress to close a lot of dealerships. Again the 2009 GM and Chrysler bankruptcies provide a good stress test. QIS has quickly diversified away from being a pure-play on these two OEMs. The service side is booming for dealerships. It is higher margin and also will have a multi-year lag to the new car sales which continue to confound the bears in Canada with solid growth. Quorum's customer base is also quickly moving up the "quality" ladder in terms of size of the dealerships (e.g. Tricor), so they become less susceptible to tiny mom & pop dealers selling to sub-prime customers going bust. Their software cost 50-60% less than the other major players, so its possible they can take market share and tread water if a dealer decides to take an ax to their costs/operating budget. Again to reiterate, their revenue is not tied to number of cars sold or employees, so the dealers can lay people off and see sales dip and Quorum will still be collecting the same fixed monthly subscription fee (Support Plus revenue could be lower and Communicator revenue could level off or decline, however). This will be a multi-year growth story, so even if there is a nasty recession for 2-years, my time frame is 2017 and beyond. We plan to let them try and execute on the profitable growth initiatives and know that they are ultimately open to selling out at a higher valuation after a few more years of high growth and compounding.
 
 

 

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

  • Growth in dealership brands that Quorum can support.
  • Inflection higher in cash flow
  • Buyout by a strategic or private equity buyer
  • Hiring of a third party investor relations firm to create more investor awareness
  • Management starting to have quarterly conference calls and/or attending investor conferences
  • Compounding of free cash flow and build up of cash on balance sheet, with subsequent return of cash to shareholders 
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    Description

     
    Shares Outstanding: 50,691,206
    Share Price: $0.35 CAD
    Market Cap: $17.836 million
    Net Cash, Pro-forma for recent equity sale: $4.86 million
    Enterprise Value: $13.04 million
     
    • QIS provides an asymmetric bet to the upside, with multi-bagger potential and limited risk of permanent capital loss or drawdown.
    • QIS has doubled their total addressable market in the last few quarters and has other meaningful new revenue drivers.
    • In a conservative theoretical run-off scenario, we estimate the shares have >50% upside.
    • Shares are egregiously cheap on an absolute and relative basis, at under 9x FCF.
    • The business model is an attractive asset-light model with the majority of revenue recurring.
    Exectutive Summary
     
    QIS provides mission critical dealer management system software for auto dealerships across Canada and the US (revenue mix: 75% Canada, 25% US). QIS has grown steadily and is hitting a positive inflection point in both revenue growth and free cash flow generation by reaching a more meaningful and sustainable operating scale. The company has several years of low risk, high visibility growth ahead
    of it due to recent expansion initiatives for integration with more OEMs and a partnership with a large Canadian auto dealer group, providing clear cut catalysts over the next year and beyond.
    QIS checks most of the boxes in terms of business model characteristics we want in our longs. It is an asset-light business model with solid downside protection due to recurring revenue and positive
    operating leverage combined with high incremental margins associated with each dollar of revenue growth. QIS is currently a “small business” that has turned the corner and is now showing good scalability of cash flows. It is growing quickly yet is hugely cash flow positive and has a large net cash position with a lot of capital flexibility.
     
    We believe total revenue growth will exceed 20% in 2016 with recurring revenue growth exceeding 35%, reaching approximately $10.3mm (in CAD). At the current enterprise value of $13mm we are paying only 1.26x EV/Recurring revenue for a profitable revenue stream that is growing 30%+, has only ~1.3customer churn annually and has 90%+ incremental operating margins. It is rare that any software firm trades below an EV of 2x recurring revenue and those that do are usually shrinking, burning cash and structurally challenged (e.g. Support.com)not low churn, cash flow positive and growing quickly like QIS. I believe QIS’s discount stems solely from being under the radar and its limited trading liquidity. At a valuation of just 3.15x our 2016 recurring revenue estimate (a still semi-distressed valuation level) the EV would be $32.4 million, giving the equity 92% upside. At 3.15x our 2017 recurring revenue estimate the equity has 130% of upside. Trading and transaction comps are currently in the 6x recurring revenue range. In terms of downside protection and margin of uncertainty on growth execution, we believe there is >50% upside even in a theoretical run-off scenario where the company halts growth and just tries to harvest cash flows from its existing customer base.
     
    Business Overview
     
    Quorum is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, with a support center in St. John’s Newfoundland and a US office in Michigan. They went public at the height of the internet bubble in 2000 via a Capital Pool
    Company (equivalent of a Canadian SPAC). The software QIS sells is referred to as Dealer Management System (DMS) software in the industry and it covers everything from inventory management and sales
    assistance/service department customer interactions (like customer relationship management software) to service center workflows. In other words, anything an employee at a dealership might do or document is captured electronically through the DMS. The DMS also integrates with the OEMS and many third parties, such as auto finance companies and consumer credit bureau services. OEMs will only
    work with a limited number of certified vendors, providing meaningful barriers to entry for the industry. Here is the product brochure for Quorum DMS called “Xsellerator”, to give you a better overview of
     
    Outline of DMS Services
     
    Sales Workflow: 1) Showroom 2) Vehicle Search 3) Desking (e.g. a Write Up of quotes and scenario analysis) 4) F&I 5) Back Office 6) CRM
    Parts Workflow: 1) CRM 2) Inventory Search 3) Price and Quoting 4) Inventory Processing 5) Inventory Management
    Service Workflow: 1) CRM 2) Service Appointment Management 3) Electronic Work Orders 4) Service Quoting 5) Work Order Closing 6) CRM
    Accounting Workflow: 1) Vehicle Inventory 2) Vehicle Sales 3) Service 4) Part Sales 5) Parts Inventory
     
    Revenue Overview
     
    QIS has four main revenue drivers.
     
    1) Support Revenue – this is the monthly subscription revenue that makes up the core of the business. It is our understanding that there is a fixed charge on a dealer rooftop basis and the number of employees at the dealership is of little consequence in the contract pricing. What is most important for this line item is just that the dealers actually stay open. This is very scalable revenue, with a centralized
    call center supporting customers. We believe Support sales to have 85%+ incremental operating margins from its current base level. Sales from the Communicator product (more on this in a bit) are also
    embedded within Support. This segment, which is the recurring revenue piece, accounts for 75% of total revenue. The main software, Xsellerator, is sold purely on a monthly subscription basis and has an
    ARPU of ~$2,050/month per dealership (also referred to as a rooftop). As QIS penetrates into larger “A” class dealerships, a move we think is forthcoming given a recent deal with Tricor Automotive Group-
    http://tricorauto.com/, we expect the ARPU to rise materially from here.
     
    Management would tell you that their differentiating value proposition is module integration, database structure, and drastically less
    nickel-and-diming sales tactics (which makes for a more satisfied and loyal customer base). For instance, a typical strategy in software is to “land and expand,” meaning get your foot in the door by
     
     
    selling one piece of software to the customer, then cross-selling more software. On the contrary, with XSELLERATOR, outside of a few specific initiatives, there is only one integrated system to pay for, with
    semi-annual updates being included as part of the support package. If anything, Quorum has lots of room for price escalators to be built into contracts. As we understand after many calls with management and customers, prices haven’t been raised at all in at least the last ten years, which is quite baffling…but right now they are stealing market share by having the reputation as being the lower cost
    but equal functionality solution to the larger players. A verbatim quote from a customer is "a key advantage for Quorum is their technology. Large incumbents built their system pre-Windows, which is
    real dinosaur tech that they've been taping and tacking on ever since." We estimate that QIS cost ~50-60% less than CDK or Reynolds & Reynolds despite the same functionality, and better architecture, UI,
    and adaptability for Xsellerator. Any future price hikes will fall directly to the bottom line. We would like to see, at a minimum, price escalators built into new contracts at a CPI rate.
     
    2) Support Plus Revenue this is subscription based training services. This encompasses a $700 one- time licensing fee per rooftop and then a $30/month/user subscription fee. We anticipate Support Plus revenue exceeding $1mm from 2016 and beyond. This is very profitable at a ~60% operating margin.
     
    3) New Installations this revenue is generated when the dealership pays for hardware and implementation (Server cost, Microsoft user license). QIS receives ~$35-40k in revenue per new
    installation, but this is a breakeven segment for the company. New Installations are the best leading indicator of new business for Support and Support Plus revenue. Given that we expect an acceleration of
    New Installations, this will temporarily lower margins but increase the recurring revenue and cash flow run-rate. Management has invested in new implementation capacity to try and keep up with demand
    and we forecast about 35 net rooftop adds in 2016. We anticipate an increase in the quarterly new rooftop install rate from ~6/quarter in two of the last three quarters to a 9+ quarterly rate in 2016. New
    installation revenue would jump to about a $360k+ quarterly rate if our estimate of rooftop growth is accurate. This is something to watch and is really the key leading indicator.
     
    QIS ended 2015 with ~307 rooftops and historically has experienced only 1.3% customer churn annually. They have grown the installed base of rooftops by a 10.6% CAGR since 2004 and we think can
    accelerate growth a bit from here due to a few recent positive developments and a deep pipeline of low hanging fruit to pick, in terms of rooftop growth. 2009 was the only year that Quorum’s installed
    rooftops declined, and even then only by 2% due to a ~90% concentration in GM dealers at the time and the GM bankruptcy forced many dealerships to shut down. We think the Great Recession offers the
    ultimate stress-test and QIS sailed right through it, posting their first EBIT positive year (EBIT positive every year since) and rebounding from 222 dealers to 240 the next year.
     
    4) Transitions this is revenue generated from upgrading customers to the latest version of Microsoft and installing new hardware. This is a lower margin segment and declining, with the bulk of
    Transitions on the existing dealer installed base completed in 2013 and 2014. Gross margins for this segment are around 30% and operating margins around 10% or lower. We conservatively model this as
    declining about 20% a year the next several years.
     
    Growth Catalysts
     
    New OEM Integration:
     
    QIS has meaningfully expanded their total addressable market in the last few quarters as they’ve completed integration with Ford and Toyota and now have the ability to sell to dealerships under those
    brands. Quorum now works with the following OEMs: GM, Toyota, Nissan, Chrysler, Hyundai, Kia, Subaru, NAPA Auto Parts stores, and Bumper to Bumper auto parts stores. Pretty much every existing
    dealership already uses a DMS, so Quorum’s growth comes from:
    1) Competitive displacement
    2) Dealership growth
    3) Existing customers acquiring more rooftops and converting DMS to Quorum (similar to #1)
    4) Support Plus revenue and other new initiatives such as Communicator messaging revenue.
     
    The Toyota integration work was done throughout 2014 (all of the cost are behind them) and the first Toyota dealer was added in January. They added 10 Toyota dealerships total in 2015, the maximum
    allowed per an agreement with Toyota. In late July 2015 they announced their intent to integrate with Ford Canada through a partnership with Oxlo, a software integration expert: http://www.oxlo.com/automotive-solutions-portfolio/
     
    QIS only had to pay Oxlo a one-time $25k fee, with no recurring fees thereafter for the help getting integrated into Ford. These were very attractive terms for QIS.
    On February 4th, 2016, QIS announced they had fully implemented their first Ford dealership in Canada. Press release here: http://files.ctctcdn.com/0d84405e101/04571cc1-59f4-4c5b-aafe-99c054597054.pdf.
     
    The TAM has expanded meaningfully, with both the US and Canadian TAM doubling from 2014 by the end of 2016, from roughly 3,000 dealerships to 6,000+ when now including dealerships of the newly integrated OEMs. In addition to the recent Toyota and Ford/Lincoln integration, Nissan US and VW (Canada + US) are forthcoming as well. Between 2014 and the end of 2016 they will have spent at most $850k to double both their Canadian and US TAM. By our estimates, they only need to add 4 dealerships for each OEM to breakeven on the necessary R&D/Cap-Ex, which is almost entirely behind them at this point. Given this low hurdle rate, they could breakeven within a single quarter on these new OEM integrations. From there, each incremental dealer will add profitable revenue at 85-90% EBIT margins. Also, they will receive government grant money for integrating these new OEMs, making the TAM expansion potentially "free." Many dealer owners that have, say GM and Toyota dealerships, are big fans of Quorum and have their GM dealerships on Xsellerator and can now transition their Toyota rooftops. We view these new OEM integrations as game changing with low execution risk on lots of low hanging fruit within the existing customer base that own multiple dealership brands.
     
    An additional point of interest is that it’s our understanding that they are working with the government on a very beneficial grant/loan, whereby they would receive $2 million dollars to fund future OEM
    integrations. A chunk of this would be grant money, meaning literally free money that does not need to be repaid. The remaining piece would be a 0% interest rate loan and would only need to be paid back if the company failed to hit certain milestones by 2018 with their Nissan and Volkswagen integrations.
     
    Dealertrack exit from Canada at the end of 2016:
     
     
     
    Dealertrack entered the Canada market in 2012 by purchasing iCONNECT Direct from Ford of Canada. Dealertrack announced in January of 2015 that they will exit the Canada market, leaving their 130-135
    rooftops up for grabs. Although Dealertrack officially recommended Serti as a replacement, we would note this recommendation came before Quorum reached an agreement with Ford to provide integration
    and that Quorum management has already targeted a material number of rooftops it believe it can take. “The gloves are off,” the CEO told us recently in regards to competing for these rooftops. The
    targeted rooftops are in a similar vein to the reference customer we spoke with, who may have several GM dealerships operating under Quorum but have additional Ford dealerships they can now convert to
    Quorumand those are the accounts they are aggressively pursuing.
     
    New Revenue Initiatives:
     
    Two new high margin, high growth, mostly recurring revenue streams that can act as additional growth catalysts and can add incremental cash flow, as well as downside protection in the event that rooftop
    growth does not go as well as planned. The first is a revenue stream mentioned already called Support Plus, which is a subscription based training program designed to train new employees (they estimate employee turnover can be as high as 30% a year at the dealership level) as well as provide optimization training. In October of 2014 they launched eQUIP uTRAIN, which is an extension of the previously launched eQUIP product. Every month, a trainer does a live optimization training for employees, which would then go into an archive library and remain available for subscribing dealers. The uTRAIN program is new, and is basically an online training course for new employees designed to get them up to speed on the software as quickly as possible. Within the eQUIP uTRAIN landscape, they are also taking very specific “Make More Money” (M3) initiatives in an effort to show that the software can help make and save money for the customer. In January of 2015 they announced positive results from some “fully trained” dealerships, claiming dealerships that were given more advanced training were selling more products, both cars and subsequent service visits. In April, they claimed each dealer was selling $68k incrementally more per month if they participated in the full (M3) training program. At the time of the last quarterly results press release, 71 dealers, or roughly 24% of their total, were subscribers. However, we believe this will materially increase through at least 2018, as the government recently announced a training incentive program to subsidize up to $10,000 in training expenses per employee, per year. The gist of this program is that the government will pay for 2/3s of the cost, while the employer is on the hook for the other 1/3. In other words, Quorum is now a direct beneficiary of Canada government subsidies that flow through the dealers once trainees complete training. This program goes through at least 2018, and the government has already been touting its success, indicating an extension is a real possibility. Bullish commentary from management has indicated they are literally having training capacity issues and that they have several six figure commitments from various dealers giving us confidence that Support Plus can get above or near $1.2 million in revenue for full year 2015, and can go far above that level in the following 2-3 years.
     
    This is all very high margin incremental revenue, with the only cost being for the trainer(s). The operating margin on this piece of the business should be at least 60%+, meaning a $1,000,000 in additional revenues will add an incremental $600,000 in EBIT a year.
     
    Communicator Messaging:
     
    The other new revenue stream is from the messenger product which they call Communicator, which is essentially a text and instant message communication system between employees and customers. For
    instance, it can automate a text to customers when a vehicle has been serviced and is ready for pick-up. It’s our understanding they receive a 6 cent fee for each message sent (while paying only 1 cent per
    message back to their telecom affiliate). We believe this will remain a relatively small, but very high margin business, probably in the range of $200k a year run-rate by mid-2016 (~3 million messages sent),
    but at 80%+ operating margin this is also a substantial driver in terms of valuation contribution. Communicator revenue goes into the Support revenue line.
     
    Valuation
     
    There are a few ways to look at valuation. I’ve got acrophobia, so I look down before I look up.
     
    Run-off value exercise:
     
    Quorum generates about $24,000 per year in revenue off each rooftop (based on a $2,000/month). We can quickly confirm this by looking at their quarterly maintenance revenue line, which tends to line up
    with this number (it is generally slightly higher, about $2,050). From this $24,000, we estimate a maintenance operating margin. After extensive discussion with the CFO on this run-off exercise, we believe that operating margin could be 50% today due to 20% COGS given the centralized call center, perhaps 10% of sales G&A, 10% on R&D (which includes capex), and another 10% sales & marketing to help maintain the existing customer base. Obviously this number scales even better with more size and the more rooftops they add the higher the margin goes (Reynolds & Reynolds is currently getting greater than 50%). The incremental margin is 85-90% for support revenue. At 300 rooftops we are estimating they could generate 50% margins on their maintenance. At
    400, perhaps this moves closer to 60%. So the $24,000 in revenue/rooftop gets us to $14,400/rooftop in operating profit. We employ a tax rate of 15%. We note that given their tax assets, the ability to generate more tax assets through capitalized R&D, and their historical 0% cash tax rate, we do not believe the company will pay any material cash taxes for at least the next 4-5 years. As long as they spend ~10% of sales on R&D, we believe the cash tax rate will always be materially below the Canada corporate tax rate. Nevertheless, we plug in 15% for conservatism.
     
    From there, using a 12% discount rate (conservative for a steady maintenance stream in our view) and historical churn slightly above their long term average at 1.5% (~4 rooftops a year is 1.3%), the Lifetime Value calculation of one rooftop is ~$75,556 per rooftop, making the value of 300 rooftops closer to $23 million. Adding in net cash of $4.8mm post recent share sale and by our estimation the current rooftop base alone plust the cash is worth $28 million, 150% of the current market cap. This exercise does not give any value to Support Plus, Communicator, or any future growth.
     
    Underlying FCF will have essentially tripled from 2014 to 2015 (from a small base) to around $1 million CAD, even though it will show up as being relatively flat, due to a $500k payment to Microsoft that
    should have been paid in 2014 that was actually paid in 2015. After factoring this in and looking at maintenance capex versus expansion capex with additional OEMs, the stock is yielding nearly 15%+ on
    its underlying 2016 FCF. A yield far too high for a fast growing mission critical software company.
     
    EV/EBITDA is at about 8.7x on a LTM basis and 6.4x on our NTM estimates. EV/uFCF is at about 8.8x our NTM estimates. This is very cheap on an absolute basis, and egregiously cheap when considering the
    type of business and growth profile and compared to trading comps. We view CDK as the best pure-play public trading comp. CDK trades at 15.3x 2016 EBITDA estimates, but is growing top line at only 2% compared to QIS’ 20%+. CDK trades at 34x 2016 FCF estimates.
     
    As should be obvious by now, an important part of the thesis is that cash flows will improve materially in 2016 and beyond. In 2014, the company reported $731k in total FCF (after subtracting capitalized R&D and capex), up from -$119k in 2013. They have told us they aim to be similar to that for full year 2015, but with a couple of caveats that we believe shows that true underlying FCF is growing substantially.
     
    First, in 2015 they paid somewhere between $350k-$450k in Microsoft licensing payments from their Transitions revenue that should have been paid in 2014 and ended up as an Accrued Expense. If you
    look at their income statement you will see this expense hit their gross margin in Q4 as a non-cash charge and the liability line item spike. This is actually a bit of sloppy accounting, in our opinion, in that
    the costs were not matched perfectly with the revenue (the revenue comes from the Transition line and was recognized earlier) and the cash is now matching a year later. It is our understanding that this is a
    one-time item and that typically revenues, expenses, and cash flows from Transitions are matched based on when they were incurred. A chunk of this accrued expense was seen in Q2 of 2015 (~$300k),
    and then an additional hit in Q3 and Q4 masked true cash flow generation capability. The upshot is that 2014 FCF is overstated by roughly $400k while 2015 will be understated by $400k. Given their goal to be flat this year with FCF, the effective FCF from 2014 was closer to $331,000 while the effective implied 2015 FCF will be closer to $1,100,000, a >3x increase assuming the reported FCF comes in flat y/y as management has implied.
     
    We believe that with a combination of accelerating growth in new dealership additions (driven from the catalysts described above), a material increase in high margin Training and Communicator revenue, and some potential R&D cash savings in 2016 (from the government grant), QIS can continue to show rapid improvement in underlying FCF.
     
    As stated, we believe incremental margins are 85-90% and they will add 40+ dealers over 2016. To contemplate the incremental run rate cash flows of adding just 60 net new dealerships over the next
    two years, consider that each new rooftop generates about $24k in revenue per year, and that the incremental margin of a new rooftop is between 85-90%. This is ~$20k in incremental EBIT and since the company pays no cash taxes and minimal interest, each additional rooftop could effectively add $20k in FCF.
     
    We assume they end 2016 at roughly 350 rooftops, up from 290 at the end of 2014 and 2015 year end estimate of 307, which is in line with management’s commentary. This would mean adding ~3.58/month in 2016 (+43 total). The run rate cash flow additions from these 43 net additions (given these are added throughout the year, it’s not meant to be a forecast of incremental 2016 cash flows) would add $860,000 million of FCF from the current run-rate. This is material relative to the $13 million EV. This also does not assume any cross-selling of eQUIP uTRAIN or Communicator, even though we expect new customers will generally be taking full advantage of those products, further juicing cash flow growth.
     
    By 2019 with 450+ rooftops by year end, we have them at $4+ million of FCF, with the Q4 2019 annualized run-rate even higher. At a multiple of just 15x (less than 1/2 that of CDK’s current no-growth
    FCF multiple), that is 4x upside to an EV of $60mm versus $14.9mm currently. As another sanity check these estimates would put them at only 3.8x EV/Sales, still at a discount to CDK’s no-growth multiple.
    With all of the excess cash, management and the Board plan to buyback stock or initiate a sizeable dividend in about one year’s time.
     
    Recent Events
     
    The company recently completed a share offering via private placement. Raising the funds were not necessary, so it was unfortunate to dilute shareholders at a low valuation, but by offering a large block
    of shares to customers and dealer groups they continue to cement their own growth pipeline with aligned customers who have a financial interest and incentive to see them grow. Management and the
    board members also participated in the share offering personally.
     
    http://quorum.mwnewsroom.com/press-releases/quorum-information-technologies-inc-announces-3-
    15-million-private-placement-an-tsx-venture-qis-201512111036416001
     
    In conjunction with the share sale they added Joseph Campbell, CEO of Tricor Automotive Group, to the Board. It is our view that both Joe Campbell and Tricor have solid reputations and are viewed as key
    opinion leaders within the Canadian auto dealership industry and that this stealth move is ultimately setting up Tricor to force all of its dealers to use Quorum for DMS. This would provide an additional
    potential rooftop pipeline of 300+ for Quorum over the next few years (this would double the size of the business). In addition to Tricor’s current 150 rooftops, they are looking to actively acquire more with a
    stated goal of reaching about 300 rooftops within a few years. The inroads into Tricor’s dealers will build Quorum’s reputation among the A-class dealers and dealer group, opening up even more high ARPU
    growth opportunities in the future.
     
    Ownership
     
    It’s worth mentioning that ~25% of the stock is owned by customers of the company (who historically buy into the share offerings), roughly 8-9% is owned by original investor Larry Shelley (his ownership
    went below 10% in the latest proxy but it’s our understanding he still holds a material position near the 10% reporting threshold), and another 9% is owned by board members and management (including
    5.5% by CEO Maury Marks), and we estimate just under 10% is owned by Tricor via the recent share sale. As you can see the majority of shares are owned by these long term oriented investors with a
    vested interest seeing the company succeed. A major risk for a short term drawdown would be one of these large shareholders trying exit their position in a hurry.
     
    Risks
     
    • Execution
    • Risk mitigant: You can say that since we have invested in the company in 2014, management has hit every target they have told us they would hit, within a dealership or two (with upside on average revenue per dealer). They have generally been relatively conservative with us when laying out any sort of forecast or projections. However,
     
     
    management has told us their biggest worry is execution risk and hence why they are
    targeting lower growth rates than what the opportunity set actually is (e.g. they are
    delaying implementing Tricor dealerships because they want to "get it right"). They have
    an embedded pipeline of growth with more new business than they can handle and
    enough rooftops just within the Tricor dealer group to keep them busy with accelerating
    growth in rooftops for years to come.
    • Cost out of control/cash flow does not materialize in the near term. The company could stray from their core auto DMS and get distracted by some other shiny new object either in terms of new growth initiatives or acquisitions.
    • Risk mitigant: We are paying such a cheap valuation, ~50% below run-off value, that we feel we have a margin of uncertainty built in to our assumptions.
    • Size/trading liquidity is generally limited.
    • Risk mitigant: Unfortunately, we do not has as much of a mitigant on this risk factor, other than having a long term timeframe and hopefully we are right on the business fundamentals and they grow and thus the shares become more liquid over time with more institutional attention. This is probably the largest risk and deal killer for most VIC members.
    • Macro economic weakness
    • Risk mitigant: There are many ways to hedge a weak Canadian macro environment with liquid securities. It would really take a lot of prolonged macro stress to close a lot of dealerships. Again the 2009 GM and Chrysler bankruptcies provide a good stress test. QIS has quickly diversified away from being a pure-play on these two OEMs. The service side is booming for dealerships. It is higher margin and also will have a multi-year lag to the new car sales which continue to confound the bears in Canada with solid growth. Quorum's customer base is also quickly moving up the "quality" ladder in terms of size of the dealerships (e.g. Tricor), so they become less susceptible to tiny mom & pop dealers selling to sub-prime customers going bust. Their software cost 50-60% less than the other major players, so its possible they can take market share and tread water if a dealer decides to take an ax to their costs/operating budget. Again to reiterate, their revenue is not tied to number of cars sold or employees, so the dealers can lay people off and see sales dip and Quorum will still be collecting the same fixed monthly subscription fee (Support Plus revenue could be lower and Communicator revenue could level off or decline, however). This will be a multi-year growth story, so even if there is a nasty recession for 2-years, my time frame is 2017 and beyond. We plan to let them try and execute on the profitable growth initiatives and know that they are ultimately open to selling out at a higher valuation after a few more years of high growth and compounding.
     
     

     

    I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
    I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

    Catalyst

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