Hi, guys --
I'm resubmitting this instead of updating my old idea, because I think it's that
worthy. The trade is long RUSHB/short RUSHA. The B shares have 10x the voting
rights of the A shares, but currently trade ~$4 below the A shares, despite the
company having announced a $40MM share repurchase program that will
be concentrated on the B class. I expect the spread to go away over the
next, I dunno, three months, producing a phenomenal IRR no matter how
you calculate it.
Will the company actually execute the buyback? Yeah, I'd expect so. They've been
grossly overcapitalized since 2005; they're making money; the controlling
shareholders have agreements with their OEMs that incentives them
to shrink the voting stock; at around $20, the B shares are not expensive;
and they followed through on their last repurchase plan during the financial
I also think there's a good chance that the Bs trade right through the As. A
3%-5% control premium is not unreasonable -- I don't see how anyone
could file a derivative suit if the company repurchases stock at those levels --
and, because it provides liquidity to the Rush family, the premium might
even go higher than that.
I've put this on with a long bias, long 2B/short 1A, because I think the Bs
are pretty cheap and, thanks to the buyback, expect the spread to narrow
through B price appreciation. My downside breakeven is $16, around book,
at which point the company has strong fundamental reasons to repurchase
shares, because it's worth more than book.
I do not hold a position of employment, directorship, or consultancy with the issuer.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.