|Shares Out. (in M):||29||P/E||14.0||10.5|
|Market Cap (in $M):||797||P/FCF||14.0||10.5|
|Net Debt (in $M):||43||EBIT||78||100|
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Long- Stoneridge (SRI)
Stoneridge (SRI) is a company in transformation from a cyclical, low-margin auto and commercial vehicle supplier to an industrial technology company. This transformation is being driven by a strong new management team who has changed the product portfolio and the culture at SRI. While SRI has made substantial progress in its transformation, we believe that the Company has the opportunity to increase its earnings by a little over 75% by 2021 as it begins to harvest the business opportunities that it has won over the last several years. Moreover, SRI is currently launching a new technology product called MirrorEye, a camera mirror system for commercial vehicles. Over time MirrorEye has the potential to increase SRI’s earnings by an additional 53% to 166%.
We believe that investors are ignoring both the operational transformation at SRI and the potential of its MirrorEye product. SRI currently trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x our 2020 estimates, directly in-line with its auto parts peer average of 6.0x and at a substantial discount to the higher-growth supplier multiple of 8.3x. This multiple ignores the fact that SRI is very different from the auto and commercial vehicle parts suppliers that many investors have historically viewed as its peers. Parts suppliers are typically capital-intensive businesses that can efficiently manufacture a set of specific hard parts that goes into a car or truck. In contrast, SRI manufactures technological “smart products” like sensors, driver information systems, actuation systems, connectivity and control products, and vision and safety systems. As compared to a traditional parts supplier, SRI’s products have: 1) better growth potential across the economic cycle; 2) higher proprietary intellectual property content; and 3) lower capital intensity. To this point, SRI’s capital expenditures as a percent of sales are 3.5% versus 5.6% for the auto parts peer group. This has allowed SRI to generate more cash than its peers and run at a more conservative leverage level of 0.4x net debt-to-EBITDA versus 1.5x for its peers.
We do not believe that SRI will remain undervalued for much longer, as investors begin to understand the potential of its MirrorEye product. This camera mirror system can be used to replace traditional mirrors on commercial vehicles. We believe that SRI is well positioned to become a leader in this market, which could be as large as $1.2 billion annually, a significant opportunity for SRI with only $865 million in 2018 revenue.
In addition to MirrorEye, SRI will also benefit from material new business wins in its core business. While SRI’s CEO came to the Company in 2015, we are only beginning to see the impact of business he has won since most automotive and commercial vehicle suppliers book business with a two-to-three year lead time. In 2019, SRI’s earnings will be burdened by investments to ramp up these new products, but this should lead to a dramatic inflection in the Company’s sales and earnings in 2020 and 2021.
Despite the potential for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, we are confident that SRI’s growth should continue to accelerate over the coming year as the Company benefits from two transformative growth drivers. First, SRI is at the crux of an operating inflection led by a strong new management team, and, second, it has just introduced a disruptive technology that will transform the overall market. We expect SRI to grow its earnings from $1.98 in 2018 to $3.48 in 2021 with very little contribution from MirrorEye. At a high-growth auto supplier multiple of 12.6x earnings, SRI should be worth $43.85 per share for its core business alone, representing 56% upside from current levels. However, this valuation gives the Company no credit for its MirrorEye product which could contribute between $1.05 and $3.30 in EPS over time. At the same 12.6x P/E multiple, this represents an additional $13.23 to $41.58 in value per share, or further upside of 47% to 148%. Moreover, this valuation multiple is likely conservative as MirrorEye earnings should merit a higher valuation multiple as it is a high-growth technology product.
Stoneridge was founded by D.M. Draime in 1965 as a one-customer, automotive contract manufacturing business. Over the years, SRI made several acquisitions to establish its presence as a parts supplier to automotive and commercial vehicle manufacturers in North America, Europe and Brazil. While SRI completed its initial public offering in 1997, D.M. Draime maintained substantial influence over the Company until his death in 2006. At this time, SRI appointed John Corey and George Strickler as CEO and CFO, respectively. Corey and Strickler were both automotive industry veterans who laid the foundation for growth over the next nine years. They helped transform SRI into a more professional organization, exited some of its commoditized business lines, and transitioned SRI’s portfolio towards higher-margin, technology-driven applications. However, SRI needed a new leader to take it from a niche auto and commercial vehicle parts supplier to a high growth industrial technology business. In 2015, Jon Degaynor took over as CEO of SRI and has dramatically accelerated the Company’s transformation.
New Management in Early Stages of Business Transformation
While SRI had always operated in several geographies, the Company needed to begin to win big global programs with its major suppliers to take the next step in its development. Jon Degaynor brought that global experience having been a leader in Delphi’s European operations and then the head of Asian operations at SRG Global, a large, privately-owned, Tier 1 auto supplier. Upon his appointment as CEO, Degaynor used his contacts to assemble an impressive team around him. Currently, only one of his top ten executives was at SRI before he joined. Perhaps his most important hire, however, was CFO Bob Krakowiak, who joined SRI in 2016.
Prior to joining SRI, Bob Krakowiak had served as Treasurer at Visteon (VC), a company that underwent a transformation of its own during his tenure. When Bob arrived in early 2012, Visteon had recently emerged from bankruptcy. The company had an attractive electronics segment much like SRI’s business, but the investment story was complicated by a web of Asian joint ventures. Over Bob’s tenure, VC cleaned up most of its major joint ventures and pursued an aggressive return of cash to shareholders strategy. During this period, the Company reduced its share count by 36% through repurchases. In 2016, VC paid a $43.40 per share special dividend, an impressive feat given that the whole company’s share price was $54.00 when Krakowiak joined the company. Overall, VC returned 125% for investors during Krakowiak’s time there.
At SRI, it appears that he will be following the same shareholder-friendly VC playbook. On the Company’s third quarter earnings report, SRI announced a plan to repurchase $50 million of shares, or 8% of the market capitalization. Moreover, SRI has recently announced plans to sell several lower-growth, underperforming business units, freeing up more cash for accretive acquisitions or repurchases.
New Management Team has Changed the Trajectory of SRI’s Business
Today, SRI would be barely recognizable to an investor in the Company even five years ago. SRI currently sells an attractive portfolio of smart products serving a diverse set of passenger and commercial vehicle end-markets globally. SRI has intentionally focused on products that serve the megatrends of intelligence, emissions, safety, and fuel efficiency. SRI believes that these megatrends represent an opportunity to grow at 8-9% annually versus global vehicle production growth of 2-3%. Most of SRI’s products have some proprietary intellectual property, insulating the Company from the cut-throat competition that many auto and commercial vehicle parts manufactures face.
We believe that investors have been slow to recognize the dramatic improvements that SRI has made over the last five years. Currently, SRI generates approximately 74% of its sales from “smart products” compared to about 45% five years ago. This figure should only improve as the Company’s new smart products like MirrorEye grow faster than its legacy product. Additionally, the Company continues to explore strategic alternatives for lower-growth, commoditized segments of its portfolio. Indeed, part of SRI’s improvement in the past several years was triggered by selling the Company’s commodity wiring harness and instrument panel assembly business. This business was highly competitive and linked to some of the most volatile end markets like agriculture and US heavy-duty truck manufacturing. Currently, SRI’s product portfolio includes sensors, high performance actuators, driver information systems, vision systems, telematic systems and advanced camera systems and displays.
This improvement in its product portfolio and the strong stewardship of Degaynor and Krakowiak has allowed SRI to dramatically improve its financial metrics. In 2018, SRI is expected to earn an EBITDA margin of 12.0%, a margin that is 56% higher than the 7.7% EBITDA margin it achieved in 2013. This improvement has come despite significant investments for future growth, and we believe these investments will lead to another 350 basis points of margin improvement over the next 3 years to 15.5%.
SRI’s Transformation Still has Substantial Runway
While 2019 is a transition year as a major program ramps down, we believe that SRI has the ability to accelerate its organic revenue growth and continue to improve its margins as it grows in 2020 and 2021. Driven by new program wins, we expect the Company to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 7.8% without a major contribution from MirrorEye.
First, the Company has improved its relationships with its major customers under Jon Degaynor and it has resulted in improved business wins. In each of the last three years SRI has won a major award from large global light or commercial vehicle manufacturers like Ford Motor Company (F), Daimler (DAI GY) and PACCAR (PCAR). However, the automotive and commercial vehicle industries have long lead times between when new business is won and when it finally translates into new revenue two to three years later. While Jon Degaynor joined SRI in 2015, much of the higher-margin new business that he and his team won from 2016 to 2018 will only start to impact SRI’s income statement in 2020 and beyond.
In analyzing SRI’s backlog, we feel confident that SRI’s organic growth will surge over the next several years even before contemplating the game changing MirrorEye product. Since 2016, SRI has consistently reported a five-year business backlog including wins and the amount of Original Equipment Manufacturer (“OEM”) revenue booked in those years. Over the last three years, SRI has a book to bill ratio of 1.5x and has won $960 million more new business than has rolled out of backlog. Given the ramp curves of commercial and light vehicle businesses, this has the potential to add $192 million to SRI’s annual revenue over the next couple of years. SRI has guided to a growth CAGR of around 8.0% from 2019 to 2021 and we believe that our backlog analysis suggests that this is actually a bit conservative. Moreover, this backlog includes limited contribution from the MirrorEye technology, which should dramatically accelerate its growth rate over time.
New Business Wins Should Result in EBITDA Margin Improvement and EPS Growth Acceleration
We believe that SRI can improve its EBITDA margins to 15.5% in 2021 from 12.0% today with very conservative assumptions around MirrorEye. When coupled with our revenue growth assumptions, this should result in 2021 EPS of $3.48, representing 76% earnings growth from today’s levels. While a 350 basis point improvement in margins over three years seems like an aggressive target, it is very similar to the improvements SRI has seen over the past several years. Since Jon Degaynor joined SRI, the Company has improved its EBITDA margins by an average of 100 basis points per year. Moreover, SRI has achieved this margin improvement without the benefit of the higher margin business it has won over Degaynor’s tenure. We believe that SRI will drive improved margins through a combination of structural cost reductions and strong incremental margins on its core business.
First, SRI typically targets structural cost reductions of 75 basis points per year, but we have conservatively assumed 50 basis points of improvements over the next several years. One example of structural cost reductions is the Company’s Q3 2018 announcement that it will exit the analog tachograph business as part of its transition to digital and close a facility in the process. This move alone should drive 20-25 basis points of margin improvement, putting SRI well along its way to its 50 basis point target for 2019. In 2020, SRI will reload on its cost-cutting program with the late 2019 exit of its Canton, MA facility.
In addition to its structural cost reductions, SRI has done an excellent job leveraging its fixed costs and driving strong incremental margins on new business. However, we estimate that incremental margins will be 27.5% over the next several years, toward the lower end of the Company’s target range. We believe that this estimate is conservative given the fact that SRI will benefit from high margin new business wins and incremental margins should actually be higher than normal. Still even with these conservative assumptions, SRI should be able to hit its 15.5% EBITDA margin target for 2021.
Currently, the market is not giving SRI any credit for its growth opportunity in 2020 and 2021. If SRI hits these targets, we believe that the Company can earn $2.67 in 2020 and $3.48 in 2021. At a high-end auto supplier P/E multiple of 12.6x, SRI should be worth $43.85, representing 56% upside from current levels.
Moreover, it will take a major global downturn for SRI’s earnings to decline materially from current levels. We believe that SRI could maintain flat earnings in 2020 and 2021 even if its end markets were to decline by 10% per year. Finally, these numbers include very little contribution from MirrorEye, which has the potential to transform the Company’s earnings even further.
MirrorEye Opportunity is a Game Changer
We believe that SRI has the opportunity to be a dominant market leader in supplying camera mirror systems to heavy and medium duty trucks globally with its MirrorEye CMS system. While there is substantial uncertainty around the exact size of the MirrorEye opportunity, it should be transformative to the Company’s earnings. We believe that MirrorEye alone has the potential to generate earnings between $1.05 and $3.30 for SRI, compared to 2018 EPS estimates of $1.98 for the entire business.
Investors do not seem to understand the magnitude of the MirrorEye opportunity because SRI has provided conservative estimates around the total market size. Additionally, few appreciate that SRI is likely to be a market share leader in this business as it has a superior product, a significant competitive advantage in North America, and strong relationships with the major commercial vehicle OEMs.
While most drivers of passenger cars are familiar with different types of camera mirror systems, the heavy and medium duty trucking industry has yet to significantly adopt this technology. However, starting this year, the commercial vehicle industry will begin to leapfrog the passenger car industry by introducing mirrorless trucks.
SRI’s Market Opportunity Estimate is Conservative
SRI has publicly stated that the addressable market for camera mirror systems will be $250 million for OEM systems and $100 million for retrofits. While a $350 million market is clearly a large opportunity for a company that is expected to generate $862 million in 2018 revenue, we believe that SRI’s estimate is extremely conservative and that the market could be as high as $1.2 billion annually.
The reason for SRI’s conservative view of the market size is that it has assumed a penetration rate of only 10-15% of the trucking fleet in North America and Europe. With 100% penetration, the total addressable market for OEM camera mirror systems is actually around $2 billion annually for those geographies. SRI expects its OEM camera mirror system to cost somewhere between $1,500 and $2,000 when it is purchased on a new truck. Average heavy and medium-duty truck production is around 1.1 million in these markets (the developed markets of North America and Europe), resulting in a market size of around $2 billion. However, even this market size estimate is conservative because the trucks produced in Europe and North America represent approximately one-third of the global truck market with China, India, and Brazil representing other large opportunities. Many of the global truck OEMs have major presences in these emerging markets and could deploy MirrorEye there over time.
On the retrofit side, SRI assumes that camera mirror systems are deployed on 10-15% of all trucks between one and three years old at a ratable annual rate. We believe that this is also conservative and that the opportunity could be double the size.
When SRI began to discuss the MirrorEye opportunity, this 10-15% penetration rate estimate might have been reasonable. However, in recent months several important announcements lead us to believe that the adoption rate will be dramatically higher.
SRI is Well-Positioned to be a Market Leader in Camera Mirror Systems
We believe that SRI has the opportunity to earn a dominant share of the camera mirror market due to the strong competitive advantages it has developed. Even at SRI’s conservative market size estimate, this opportunity could increase SRI’s earnings by 53% to 71%. SRI has a significant first mover advantage in this market because it is the only company that has made this technology an important organizational priority. SRI has been working to develop its MirrorEye technology since early 2015. The Company signed an alliance with Orlaco to fuse Orlaco’s camera technology with SRI’s driver information technology. Ultimately, in early 2017, SRI acquired Orlaco to better control the development process.
Currently, there are only three players in the OEM camera mirror market: SRI’s MirrorEye system, Bosch’s Mirror Cam system, and Continental’s (CON GY) ProViu Mirror. Of these three, SRI and Bosch have each won one OEM contract to produce these systems. Industry sources suggest that Continental’s system is far behind the other two because it does not allow the driver to see as far behind the truck and is limited in the situation specific displays it can offer in urban settings. SRI’s system has some advantages over Bosch’s in the robustness of its cameras, lower latency and color night vision. However, the biggest competitive advantage is that SRI is the only system that can be used to replace mirrors entirely in the US.
In late December 2018, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (“FMCSA”) and the Department of Transportation (DOT) issued a ruling that confirms that SRI’s MirrorEye system will be allowed to replace mirrors entirely. Other camera mirror systems can only be used with a physical mirror on the truck as well. SRI has been working to achieve this exemption for over a year through on-road trials with 18 fleets globally and has logged nearly 2 million accident-free miles with its system. As neither of the two competitors have launched similar trials or applied to the FMCSA for an exemption, we believe that they are over a year away from having a system that is competitive with SRI’s in North America.
This first mover advantage is crucial for SRI since commercial vehicle manufacturers typically award programs around two years ahead of launch. SRI has already announced an OEM launch partner for late 2020 and Daimler is launching the Bosch camera mirror system on its Mercedes Benz Actros truck in 2019. SRI also has announced two development partners who are working with them on MirrorEye but have not placed an official order. This is significant because the truck OEM market is highly consolidated with five manufacturers that control the majority of the North American and European market. SRI believes that these development partners could lead to an announced order within the next six months.
Since camera mirror systems are already being introduced, SRI will have a big advantage in announcing orders with any OEM manufacturer who wants to launch in the US before 2023. Moreover, SRI will likely own the retrofit market. SRI is beginning retrofits in the US in Q1 2019 and it seems unlikely that any competitor will be able to achieve an exemption in a timely enough manner to compete. In order to consolidate its advantage in the retrofit market SRI has signed an installation partnership with Velociti. Velociti has a history of providing installation and support services for commercial vehicle technology products. For example, in the past Velociti partnered with Lytx, the global leader in driver risk management systems to install its product on vehicles across the globe. Currently, Lytx systems are on over 400,000 vehicles.
Based on this analysis, we estimate that SRI has the potential to capture between 33% and 50% of the OEM market, and between 70% and 80% of the retrofit opportunity. Even applying SRI’s conservative market size estimates, this represents a revenue opportunity of between $153 million and $205 million. Assuming a slightly below corporate average contribution margin of 25%, this would result in additional EPS of between $1.05 and $1.41. Assuming a 12.6x P/E multiple, this would add $13.23-$17.77, or 47-63% share price appreciation. However, we believe that the MirrorEye contribution should actually be substantially higher with a less conservative adoption rate assumption.
Adoption Rate Should be Much Stronger than Originally Anticipated
Recent evidence suggests the penetration rate for camera mirror systems will likely be much higher than the 10-15% that SRI originally projected and could ultimately be as high as 50% adoption in the OEM market. With this penetration rate, the MirrorEye product alone could increase SRI’s earnings by 167% and its share price by an even larger percentage.
In recent months, we have seen several indications by OEMs and fleets that camera mirror systems will be widely adopted in the commercial vehicle industry. While OEMs have had a strong interest in camera mirror technology, they only recently demonstrated their commitment to roll it out more broadly. In September of 2018, Daimler unveiled the 2019 Mercedes Benz Actros truck with a camera mirror system and no physical mirrors as standard equipment. This means that in order to get an Actros truck with mirrors, the buyer would have to specifically request that in the order. Typically, standard equipment has an adoption rate much closer to 100% than SRI’s projected 10-15%. When one considers the economic and safety benefits, it seems like this system will have much higher penetration.
Camera mirror systems have three important advantages over conventional mirrors: 1) they improve truck safety; 2) they have a quick payback with improved fuel economy; and 3) they improve driver comfort.
Recently, safety has become a big focus for large trucking fleets as the legal and reputational costs of accidents continue to mount. Trucking companies have been increasingly willing to spend money on technologies that reduce accidents. Indeed, Lytx has developed a business that is entirely focused on retrofit camera and telematics-based safety applications. While we do not know the financial metrics of this business, it was valued at $1.5 billion in April of 2018, nearly double SRI’s enterprise value.
There is clear evidence that camera mirror systems should reduce accidents. MirrorEye can increase the driver’s field of view by 25%, provide fuel savings, reduce glare, eliminate obstructions from dirt on the windshield, and improve night vision. Moreover, SRI’s has color night vision and allows the driver to automatically track the end of the trailer to keep it in view while the truck is moving forward, reducing the risk of a driver hitting pedestrians and eliminating blind spots on right turns.
Currently, trucks with MirrorEye systems in the US have driven for nearly 2 million miles without a single accident. It seems logical that MirrorEye could significantly reduce accident frequency, as blind spots are estimated to cause somewhere between one-quarter and one-third of all trucking accidents. The costs of trucking accidents are so large that it doesn’t take much of a reduction in accident frequency to justify buying a camera mirror system. In 2008, the FMCSA estimated that the average cost of a trucking accident is $148,279 with no injuries or fatalities, $331,108 with injuries and $7,200,100 with a fatality. These costs have likely only escalated further over the last ten years. Moreover, if camera mirror systems are proven to be safer over time, they could end up reducing a trucker’s insurance costs, further reducing the time in which a camera mirror system can pay for itself.
While smaller trucking companies may not be as willing to spend on safety application as larger fleets, we believe that the value proposition of a camera mirror system is still extremely compelling because of the fuel economy improvements. SRI expects most of the buyers of its system to remove their mirrors when they buy a system since a physical mirror creates a blind spot for the mirror system. This should improve a truck’s fuel economy by 2-3%. Public trucking companies average around 1,800 miles per tractor per week and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that heavy-duty trucks get 6.4 miles per gallon. With on-highway diesel prices averaging $3.18 per gallon in 2018, an average truck should spend approximately $47,000 per year on fuel. This means that SRI’s system would save a trucker between $933 and $1,399 per year allowing for a payback in less than two years from fuel savings alone. In Europe, where diesel prices are higher, the payback is even more compelling. Mercedes has said that the cost of its camera mirror system on its 2019 Actros truck will be covered by fuel savings in 100,000 kilometers, which is approximately one year of driving for a long-haul trucker.
Finally, driver feedback for the technology has been overwhelmingly positive. In a world where there is a meaningful shortage of truck drivers, trucking companies are working harder than ever to keep their drivers satisfied. Truckers who have used MirrorEye have become strong advocates. In the FMCSA’s review process, J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) and Schneider National (SNDR) both wrote to the FMCSA to support the technology. Schneider stated that its drivers “had an overwhelmingly positive experience” and confirmed that the system provides the benefits that we have detailed above. JBHT stated that they “have not been involved in any collisions and have received overwhelmingly positive feedback from our test drivers” who were impressed by the “real-time, excellent monitor image clarity with improved field of vision around their tractor and trailing units and the elimination of the tractor’s problematic front passenger side blind spot.” In fact, JBHT was so positive on the technology that they posted a video of the technology on the company LinkedIn page as a recruiting tool for future drivers. Even the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) noted that “drivers responded favorably when testing the MirrorEye technology and preferred them in place of traditional side mirrors.”
In summary, we believe that this technology has the potential to have an adoption rate of 50% in OEM vehicles and 25% in retrofits, which would put the overall market size at $1.2 billion. A market this size, would likely attract new entrants and SRI’s market share may end up being at the lower end of our OEM estimates, but it would still represent a massive opportunity. In this scenario, MirrorEye could contribute $480 million per year in revenue and $3.30 in EPS.
Valuation and Conclusion
While investors have focused on the risks to the auto and commercial vehicle markets in a tougher macroeconomic environment, we believe that they have overlooked the tremendous growth opportunities at SRI. First, SRI has developed a powerful backlog of business wins that should drive earnings from $1.98 in 2018 to $3.48 in 2021. Based on this opportunity alone we believe that SRI is worth $43.85 per share representing 56% upside from current levels. Moreover, SRI’s MirrorEye product has the potential to be even more transformative over time adding between $1.05 and $3.30 of EPS which is worth an additional $13.23-$41.58 per share even at an extremely conservative 12.6x P/E multiple. As the Company announces more OEM awards and begins to show significant retrofit revenue over the coming quarters, we believe that investors will begin to recognize the magnitude of this opportunity. Finally, SRI has a strong balance sheet with 0.4x net debt-to-EBITDA and generates free cash flow that is in-line with its earnings providing downside protection in a more difficult environment. With the Company’s strong and shareholder friendly management team, we believe that SRI would be able to capitalize on any market downturn with large, opportunistic share repurchases.
While we have valued SRI as a high growth auto supplier, we believe that investors will begin to view SRI as an industrial technology company over time, resulting in further upside for the shares. As MirrorEye and SRI’s growth products become a larger piece of the portfolio, the Company’s results should become less tied to the performance of the underlying light and commercial vehicle markets. Moreover, MirrorEye could be just the start of a blockbuster technology pipeline for SRI. At SRI, Degaynor and his team have focused on developing capabilities in technologies that will play a big role in the future of the industries it serves. For example, as commercial vehicle moves toward autonomous driving or platooning (multiple trailers on one tractor), SRI can benefit in several areas. SRI currently has sensor, cameras, and telematics technologies that will be essential for the future of the commercial vehicle industry. As such, we believe that investors who can look though the cyclical risk, and see the long-term opportunity at SRI will be well rewarded.
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Any forward-looking opinions, assumptions, assessments, or similar statements constitute only subjective views. This information should not be relied on for investment decisions and is subject to change due many factors, including fluctuating market conditions and economic factors. Such Statements involve inherent risks, many of which cannot be predicted or quantified and are beyond our control. Future evidence and actual results could differ materially from those set forth in, contemplated by, or underlying these Statements, which are subject to change without notice. In light of the foregoing, there can be no assurance and no representation is given that these Statements are now, or will prove to be, accurate or complete. We undertake no responsibility or obligation to revise or update such Statements.
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