|Shares Out. (in M):||134||P/E||18.1x||13.4x|
|Market Cap (in $M):||6,007||P/FCF||22.7x||16.3x|
|Net Debt (in $M):||206||EBIT||347||510|
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TRIPADVISOR (NASDAQ:TRIP): LONG
TripAdvisor clicks its way through another revenue and earnings beat!
Summary Financials - Base Case:
|Currency: $m except per share data||June12A||Summary Financials||FY09A||FY10A||FY11A||FY12E||FY13E||FY14E|
|Current Price||$ 44.76||Revenues||352.1||484.6||637.1||817.0||1,051.9||1,300.2|
|Shares Outstanding||134.2||Growth %||18.1%||37.6%||31.5%||28.3%||28.8%||23.6%|
|Market Capitalization||6,006.8||Street Revenue||n/a||n/a||n/a||772.7||920.2||1,057.4|
|- Cash & Cash Equivalents||208.6||EBIT||168.2||226.3||279.7||347.2||510.2||695.6|
|+ Total Debt||414.6||Margin %||47.8%||46.7%||43.9%||42.5%||48.5%||53.5%|
|+ Pref. Equity||-||EBITDA||191.3||253.8||305.6||377.5||547.0||738.5|
|+ Total Minority Interest||-||Margin %||54.3%||52.4%||48.0%||46.2%||52.0%||56.8%|
|= Total Enterprise Value (TEV)||6,212.8||EPS||$ 0.77||$ 1.03||$ 1.31||$ 1.68||$ 2.48||$ 3.35|
|Book Value of Common Equity||354.7||Street EPS||n/a||n/a||n/a||$ 1.33||$ 1.65||$ 1.85|
|+ Pref. Equity||-||EV / EBITDA||n/a||n/a||20.3||16.5||11.4||8.4|
|+ Total Minority Interest||-||EV / Free Cash Flow||n/a||n/a||31.6||23.5||16.9||12.5|
|+ Total Debt||414.6||P/E||n/a||n/a||34.1||26.7||18.1||13.4|
|= Total Capital||769.3||P/E less Cash||n/a||n/a||35.5||26.6||17.0||11.5|
TripAdvisor (TRIP) is an online travel research company that helps 50 million monthly unique visitors plan trips by learning from ~60 million customer reviews on 570 thousand business listings. TRIP makes money primarily by generating leads for online travel agents (“OTAs”) (Expedia, Priceline, Orbitz etc), hotels, airlines and similar companies in the hospitality industry. Customers pay TRIP on a: (i) cost per click (CPC) basis (79% of revenues), (ii) cost per thousand impressions (CPM) basis (13% of revenues), and (iv) subscription basis (8% of revenues). OTA’s generate ~50% of TRIP’s revenues.
TRIP is a LONG because:
How this plays out:
The bear thesis:
Timeline – Key Events:
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