ZION OIL & GAS INC ZN S
June 19, 2017 - 8:10pm EST by
casper719
2017 2018
Price: 2.75 EPS -.16 0
Shares Out. (in M): 48 P/E 0 0
Market Cap (in $M): 132 P/FCF 0 0
Net Debt (in $M): 2 EBIT -10 0
TEV ($): 134 TEV/EBIT 0 0
Borrow Cost: Tight 15-50% cost

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  • Fooling some of the people ALL of the time
 

Description

Zion Oil and Natural Gas (ZN) represents the opportunity to short a blatant scam with both an imminent catalyst and a pure arb opportunity. This is timely and straightforward so I’m going to keep it brief.

Essentially ZN claims to be prospecting for oil in Israel. I’m not a geologist or oil expert so I will leave it to the reader to determine whether their method of using the Bible to locate oil is a sound exploration methodology.

Their CEO John Brown explains their process in this video.

https://youtu.be/lH-dvoG3PEM?t=10m5s

John Hempton had an interesting exchange with them in the past

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/10/zion-sent-their-lawyers-to-get-us-it-is.html

More pertinent to this investment thesis is their current direct investment program and the dilutive catalyst it creates.

Starting today, May 22, 2017, and ending July 12, 2017 (unless extended at the company's sole discretion), Zion is offering this new Unit Option to purchase Units of our securities where each Unit (priced at $250.00) is comprised of: a) shares of ZN common stock determined by dividing $250 by the average of the high and low sale prices of the Company's common stock on the Unit Purchase Date, and  b) 25 common stock purchase warrants. Each warrant (symbol "ZNWAF") affords participants the opportunity to purchase one share of ZN common stock at a warrant exercise price of $1.00. The warrants will first become exercisable on August 14, 2017, the 31st day following the Unit Option termination date (unless extended), and continue to be exercisable through August 14, 2020 (three years) at a per share exercise price of $1.00.  If the Company's Common Stock closing price trades above $5.00 per share for 15 consecutive trading days at any time prior to the warrant expiration date, Zion may provide a notice to warrant holders of an early warrant termination within 60 days of the notice.  All references in the Original Prospectus Supplement, concerning the Unit Option, continue, except for the substitution of the new Unit Option terms and features above. All other Plan features, conditions and terms remain unchanged.

If you go onto the website they will take the money straight out of a bank account up to 10k, I believe you have to wire to do more. For every 10k assuming that for tomorrow the high-low average today’s close at 2.75 just for simplicity you will get 1000 warrants and about 3600 shares. Shorting 4600 shares against that until you can get the shares settled and dumped in a few days and the arb should net about 1700 dollars per 10k in 2 months. Given you only will need 1000 shares for most of the time to hedge and the warrants are cashless, the after borrow IRR could be as high as 250-350%.

Alternatively, one could just short the stock outright as the borrow rate is in the teens and the dilution coming from all the newly issued stock today and warrant exercises in August are undoubtedly going to crush the stock, as is the unwind of today’s pump to create an incentive for people to do invest in the plan. Either way it is a very attractive setup it’s just by doing the direct investment you can effectively cover some today at 1 vs waiting until all the dilution brings it there in a few months.

Risks

-If too many people send prayers to the company and for Israel, they may find oil and the stock could spike further.

https://www.zionoil.com/prayer/

-The warrants could be terminated early but this is not really a risk because, given the 60 day notice and requirement to trade over 5 for 15 days, they will be exercisable before this could happen in August.

-The borrow rate could spike, but even at 50-100% the trade will work over the timeframe in play so it’s nothing to worry about really.

-The only true risk and difficulty I can see to this is that it is unclear if you wire in money to them if you can get the current day vs a 1-2 day delay for them to receive the money and thus give you a future day's strike. For what it's worth I wired money today vs the slower online ach method that is guaranteed to have a 1-2 day delay to try to get today's strike of 3.01 as it looked to be a good deal earlier in the day and it appears despite the wire going out at 2pm they arent giving me shares for today (which looks to be lucky obviously in this case). This creates some hedging uncertainty given the current level of volatility. However, given the strong short bias the favorable play is to have at least a bit of extra unhedged short anyway so in practice this shouldn’t really matter too much. Volatility should come back in after a few days making this a bit more straightforward (albeit likely at a lower less attractive price to arb the warrants).

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Dilution from new stock sales and existing Warrants now (https://www.zionoil.com/dspp/exercise-warrants/)

Dilution from new warrants August 14th

Parabolic blow off today has a natural expectation to unwind, as bagged pump chasers sell

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    Description

    Zion Oil and Natural Gas (ZN) represents the opportunity to short a blatant scam with both an imminent catalyst and a pure arb opportunity. This is timely and straightforward so I’m going to keep it brief.

    Essentially ZN claims to be prospecting for oil in Israel. I’m not a geologist or oil expert so I will leave it to the reader to determine whether their method of using the Bible to locate oil is a sound exploration methodology.

    Their CEO John Brown explains their process in this video.

    https://youtu.be/lH-dvoG3PEM?t=10m5s

    John Hempton had an interesting exchange with them in the past

    http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/10/zion-sent-their-lawyers-to-get-us-it-is.html

    More pertinent to this investment thesis is their current direct investment program and the dilutive catalyst it creates.

    Starting today, May 22, 2017, and ending July 12, 2017 (unless extended at the company's sole discretion), Zion is offering this new Unit Option to purchase Units of our securities where each Unit (priced at $250.00) is comprised of: a) shares of ZN common stock determined by dividing $250 by the average of the high and low sale prices of the Company's common stock on the Unit Purchase Date, and  b) 25 common stock purchase warrants. Each warrant (symbol "ZNWAF") affords participants the opportunity to purchase one share of ZN common stock at a warrant exercise price of $1.00. The warrants will first become exercisable on August 14, 2017, the 31st day following the Unit Option termination date (unless extended), and continue to be exercisable through August 14, 2020 (three years) at a per share exercise price of $1.00.  If the Company's Common Stock closing price trades above $5.00 per share for 15 consecutive trading days at any time prior to the warrant expiration date, Zion may provide a notice to warrant holders of an early warrant termination within 60 days of the notice.  All references in the Original Prospectus Supplement, concerning the Unit Option, continue, except for the substitution of the new Unit Option terms and features above. All other Plan features, conditions and terms remain unchanged.

    If you go onto the website they will take the money straight out of a bank account up to 10k, I believe you have to wire to do more. For every 10k assuming that for tomorrow the high-low average today’s close at 2.75 just for simplicity you will get 1000 warrants and about 3600 shares. Shorting 4600 shares against that until you can get the shares settled and dumped in a few days and the arb should net about 1700 dollars per 10k in 2 months. Given you only will need 1000 shares for most of the time to hedge and the warrants are cashless, the after borrow IRR could be as high as 250-350%.

    Alternatively, one could just short the stock outright as the borrow rate is in the teens and the dilution coming from all the newly issued stock today and warrant exercises in August are undoubtedly going to crush the stock, as is the unwind of today’s pump to create an incentive for people to do invest in the plan. Either way it is a very attractive setup it’s just by doing the direct investment you can effectively cover some today at 1 vs waiting until all the dilution brings it there in a few months.

    Risks

    -If too many people send prayers to the company and for Israel, they may find oil and the stock could spike further.

    https://www.zionoil.com/prayer/

    -The warrants could be terminated early but this is not really a risk because, given the 60 day notice and requirement to trade over 5 for 15 days, they will be exercisable before this could happen in August.

    -The borrow rate could spike, but even at 50-100% the trade will work over the timeframe in play so it’s nothing to worry about really.

    -The only true risk and difficulty I can see to this is that it is unclear if you wire in money to them if you can get the current day vs a 1-2 day delay for them to receive the money and thus give you a future day's strike. For what it's worth I wired money today vs the slower online ach method that is guaranteed to have a 1-2 day delay to try to get today's strike of 3.01 as it looked to be a good deal earlier in the day and it appears despite the wire going out at 2pm they arent giving me shares for today (which looks to be lucky obviously in this case). This creates some hedging uncertainty given the current level of volatility. However, given the strong short bias the favorable play is to have at least a bit of extra unhedged short anyway so in practice this shouldn’t really matter too much. Volatility should come back in after a few days making this a bit more straightforward (albeit likely at a lower less attractive price to arb the warrants).

    I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
    I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

    Catalyst

    Dilution from new stock sales and existing Warrants now (https://www.zionoil.com/dspp/exercise-warrants/)

    Dilution from new warrants August 14th

    Parabolic blow off today has a natural expectation to unwind, as bagged pump chasers sell

    Messages


    Subject Lord works in mysterious ways!
    Entry06/20/2017 11:06 AM
    Membersurf1680

    15 years of drilling and not a single drop of oil!    

    Despite that - Zion equity holders did better than the equity holders of all of these well-known companies that actually found oil:

    Pacific Exploration & Production

    Samson Resources

    Ultra Petroleum 

    Sabine Oil & Gas

    Energy XXI

    Quicksilver Resources 

    Midstates Petroleum

    Venoco

    Swift Energy

    Energy & Exploration Partner

    Magnum Hunter Resources 

    Milagro Oil & Gas 

    New Gulf Resources 

    Goodrich GR +% Petroleum

    ERG Resources 

     

    Can I get an amen?


    SubjectRe: Re: Re: Re: Lord works in mysterious ways!
    Entry06/20/2017 01:12 PM
    MemberJohnKimble

    you can sue but you risk a smiting 


    SubjectRe: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Privacy Concerns
    Entry06/29/2017 07:46 AM
    Membercasper719

    The dilution catalyst is coming but it’s going to take time, remember it’s a two-week minimum (and the warrants are still weeks away) turnaround to dump shares issued even if you move heaven and earth to get the shares as fast as possible. I doubt any shares were issued to sophisticated investors looking to dump them asap until 6/19. More importantly I believe what is going on here is the conundrum that can happen in penny stock manipulation where a bearish fundamental catalyst (typically cash burn issues) causes a short squeeze near-term as the stock is being manipulated into the upcoming offering. DRYS in November or HTGM in March being recent most notorious examples. Until July 12th there is an incentive to pump with potential corporate involvement, and they can ride the narrative excitement of the current well drilling. For what it’s worth IR yesterday said the amount of questions about investing in the stock had been “insane” “especially because we are drilling”. Given how parabolic this move is getting again, I would expect it to end much sooner than two weeks from now if not today; however I would think at the latest the promotion ends when the program ends, and potentially we get a resolution on the well drilling as a catalyst.

     

     

    It’s also worth noting that in the last few days there has been rampant speculation in this sector with a lot of prime candidates (most notably MBRX), and as chat rats become flush from bidding up one names it can become a self-reinforcing dynamic for a week or two. The dynamic just has to burn itself out; the insanity creates the opportunity, so I try not to complain (too much at least) about the interim.


    SubjectParabolic Move
    Entry07/07/2017 12:00 PM
    Memberjcoviedo

    Any explanation for the parabolic move over this week or is this just a pump and dump into the expiration of the direct investing program? Is there any way to report these guys to the SEC? Seems like there is clearly a coordinated scam going on here.

    Also any idea where there is borrow?

    Thanks


    SubjectRe: Parabolic Move
    Entry07/07/2017 12:22 PM
    MemberWeighingMachine

    as best i can tell, the pictures showing workers in hard hats (included in Wednesday's press release) is a clear indication that the lord is on ZN's side and shorts must either repent or perish

    https://www.zionoil.com/updates/press-release-zion-oil-gas-drilling-operations-update-and-unit-program-to-end-soon/


    SubjectRe: Parabolic Move
    Entry07/07/2017 12:52 PM
    Membercasper719

    Remote today so cant respond much but a lot of shares are being bought in today that i believe explains the action and while i have no proof im guessing there is coordination in that. Yeah they are clearly manipulating until the offering ends not much more to be said.


    SubjectSurprise surprise sounds like its a dry hole........
    Entry08/08/2017 07:51 PM
    Memberjcoviedo

    ZN posted on its webpage and facebook page this afternoon the following cryptic message

     

    Subject: Prayer requests for Zion and our Megiddo Jezreel #1 well.

    God has been faithful in answering our prayers during operations! Please keep in mind that the only purpose of our prayers is that God, and only God, is glorified. When answered, we must give Him all the glory. God’s glory is the focal point of all creation, and it should be the only reason for our prayers. (Psalm 142:1; 143:1)

    Pray diligently that our drilling program will safely continue until we discover the oil (Ecclesiastes 1: 9). It should come as no surprise that our adversary (John 10:10) is active and is desperately trying to stop all our efforts in Israel, therefore, we all need to increase our vigilance.

    The bottom line is when He answers our prayers, we must give Him all the praise and the glory. (Psalm 68:1-4)

    Our answer to Satan is we all stand together in unity (Psalm 133) in a position of full confidence and Faith that God will answer our prayers. And Israel and the body of Christ will be blessed. (Psalm 67:5-7)

    Shalom,

    John Brown

    “Faith expects from God what is beyond all expectation.” – Andrew Murray


    SubjectZN Press Releases that its drilled 500 feet in 3 weeks.
    Entry08/09/2017 01:56 PM
    Memberjcoviedo

    What a joke.

     

    PRESS RELEASE: Zion Oil & Gas Continues Drilling in Israel

     

    Company successfully logs, retrieves cores, cases, and cements intermediate section

    DALLAS and CAESAREA, Israel, August 9, 2017 — Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZN) continues active drilling operations at its Megiddo-Jezreel #1 well in Israel. As of today, we have reached a depth of approximately 5,850 feet (~1,785 meters) toward a proposed total depth of up to ~15,000 feet.

    Zion’s President and COO, Dustin Guinn, says, “I am encouraged by the results so far. Since our last update, Zion finished drilling through the intermediate casing interval at 1,665 meters. After running wireline logs and analyzing the data, we obtained over 20 sidewall cores from different zones within the well that spanned approximately 800 meters (~2,625 feet). The Geologic Survey of Israel is analyzing several of the cores for porosity, permeability, and other factors. After retrieving the cores, we proceeded to successfully case and cement the 13-3/8” casing string. Because this is an exploration well, it continually presents surprises, but overall, we are excited about the progress and prayerfully continue drilling ahead.”

    Zion Oil & Gas explores for oil and gas onshore in Israel and its operations are focused on the Megiddo-Jezreel License (approximately 99,000 acres) south and west of the Sea of Galilee.


    SubjectThe latest Zion nonsense
    Entry08/22/2017 09:19 AM
    Memberjcoviedo

    If I'm reading this correctly, they drilled 700 ft in 2 weeks, are getting delayed b/c they have to run casing and they are having drilling screw ups drilling through the carbonate. Management flying over there b/c of the operational screw ups and the drilling being massively behind schedule. Of course this is all being spun as positive.

     

    I like the CEO's safari hat btw......

    Zion Oil & Gas Management Travel to Israel for Upcoming Well Operations

     

    Zion prepares to log and case its MJ #1 well at 2,000 meters (6,560 feet)

    DALLAS and CAESAREA, Israel, August 22, 2017 — Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZN) makes preparations to obtain wireline logs and case the next well interval at a depth of approximately 2,000 meters (6,560 feet).

    Victor Carrillo (CEO), Dustin Guinn (President), and Dr. Lee Russell (Senior Geoscience Advisor and Board Director) arrived in Israel this week to be on site for upcoming operations at Zion’s Megiddo-Jezreel #1 well.

    Senior Geoscience Advisor, Dr. Russell explains, “Recent drilling over the last few hundred meters suggests the possible existence of a highly fractured carbonate section in the Jurassic, which presents optimism for potential reservoir characteristics. Carbonate reservoirs are prominent in the Middle East, with around 70% of oil and 90% of gas reserves held within these reservoirs. Based on the evidence of existing fractures, we are eager to see what the next logging run will show us. There are multiple zones of interest through which we still plan to drill and evaluate as we drill towards our total depth.”

    Zion President, Dustin Guinn, adds, “Given the formation characteristics that can be expected with highly fractured carbonates, we made the decision, to insure safety and well integrity, to case this interval at a shallower depth than previously anticipated. While this is a change to the drilling program, it is not expected to materially affect the expected total depth to which we hope to drill. I am also excited about the formation characteristics and while it may present drilling challenges, it may also present reservoir characteristics that are intriguing.”

    From left to right: Dustin Guinn (President), Dr. Lee Russell (Senior Geoscience Consultant), Angelo Bianco (Safety and Environmental Engineer), and Victor Carrillo (CEO) on location at drill site in Israel.

    Zion Oil & Gas license area and drill site location in Israel.

    In 2015, an independent study by the international consulting company Beicip-Franlab concluded that up to 6.6 billion barrels of oil (in-place best estimate) remain to be found in Israel’s Levant Basin.  Zion’s Megiddo-Jezreel License area is entirely within the Levant Basin and is well positioned to encounter the key geologic ingredients of an active petroleum system.

    Zion Oil & Gas explores for oil and gas onshore in Israel and its operations are focused on the Megiddo-Jezreel License (approximately 99,000 acres) south and west of the Sea of Galilee.

     

     

     

     


    SubjectRe: Short Interest vs. Warrants
    Entry08/24/2017 12:10 PM
    Memberxds68

    Maybe the following observation already gives this company too much credit, but it's interesting to note that their play is just south of the Sea of Galilee, while Genie Energy (GNE) drilled just east of the sea of Galilee with very little success and is now trying its luck further north. Best I can tell looking at a map, the ZN well is close to the abandoned GNE wells - perhaps less than 50 miles away. So recognizing there didn't appear to be a great case here to begin with, I would say GNE's results to date make the possibilty of an economic play even more remote.


    SubjectNew offering
    Entry10/12/2017 04:48 PM
    Memberpcm983

    Looks like the Zion crooks just filed another 8k authorizing another issuance.  Warrants will be struck again at $1. Not really seeing this as actionable given the borrow rate but something to keep on your radar should the opportunity arise


    SubjectRe: New offering
    Entry11/01/2017 03:17 PM
    Memberxds68

    Crooks! What do you mean? Issuing shares is the business model - they are doing what they're paid for!


    SubjectRe: Re: New offering
    Entry02/13/2018 04:19 PM
    Memberxds68

    hmm...this is now one of the few oil and gas names that has worked on the long side over the last few months - is this a short lived shorting window?


    SubjectAll Things Are Possible (Mark 9:17-27)
    Entry04/24/2018 07:55 PM
    MemberEITR210

    To: Zion’s Shareholders and Friends

    Many times, when we are confronted with an impossible situation, we tend to ask God to help alleviate the symptoms rather than intervene in a mighty way. It’s as though we are afraid of asking too much.

    Maybe it’s because we just don’t see miracles that often, so we assume that God won’t do them. But to the contrary, according to The Bible, He is intensely interested in intervening in our situations. He is waiting for simple, believing, worshipful hearts to simply ask, and He always stands ready to intervene in response to our prayers and faith.

    In Mark 9:17-27 a father asked Jesus, “but if thou canst do any thing, have compassion on us, and help us. Jesus, said unto him, if thou canst believe, all things are possible to him that believeth. And straightway the father of the child cried out, and said with tears, Lord, I believe; help thou mine unbelief.”

    So please don’t struggle; just simply believe that you will receive it and continuously thank God while you wait to see it come to pass!

    Asking for a miracle with a large expectation on our part will always honor God (Psa. 9:11). So, lets pray for huge results and expect it when we test our Megiddo Jezreel #1 well in May. (Nu. 21:17) Remember the chief purpose for our prayers is that God will be glorified and honored when they are answered. (John 14:13)

    Have you struggled lately to have more faith? If so, take your eyes off the problem and put them on God! Those who depend too heavily on their own eyes may miss the blessings that only come by faith. (2 Cor. 5:7)

    A good example of what God can do began in 2014 when we all prayed and asked God for five things, of which all five have now all been answered.

    The next prayer is for Jer. 33:9 to come to pass now! (Deut. 32: 12, 13) I again received this scripture, a promise from God for Zion Oil and Gas, Inc., and now I share it with all of you:

    “And It (Zion) shall be to me a name of joy, a praise and an honor before all the nations of the earth, which shall hear all the good that I do unto them: and they shall fear and tremble for all the goodness and for all the prosperity that I procure unto it.” (Jer. 33:9


    SubjectNot apples to apples...
    Entry04/26/2018 03:57 PM
    MemberEITR210

    We hear “testing doesn’t take this long.” Perhaps with US wells & info you know. In Israel, xtreme wildcat, no offset data, equip from N Europe, Israeli customs/approvals, 4 companies to coordinate, & depths requiring 3days tripping in & out... not </div></div><div class=to </td></tr>
            
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    SubjectSEC Subpoena
    Entry07/11/2018 05:00 PM
    Memberjcoviedo

    Begining of the end...

     

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1131312/000121390018009064/f8k071118_zionoilgasinc.htm

     


     

    Item 8.01  Other Events

     

     

    On Thursday, June 21, 2018, Zion Oil & Gas, Inc. (“Zion” or “Company”) received a subpoena to produce documents from the Fort Worth office of the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), informing Zion of the existence of a non-public, fact-finding inquiry into the Company. Zion, an SEC-reporting company with audited financial statements in the US and Israel for over a decade, will fully cooperate with this investigation. Until receipt of the subpoena on June 21, 2018, Zion had no previous communication with the SEC on this issue and was unaware of this investigation. The SEC stated that "the investigation and the subpoena do not mean that we have concluded that [Zion] or anyone else has violated the law."

     

    While we acknowledge that our response to the subpoena will necessarily entail significant costs and management's attention, it should have no effect on Zion's ongoing testing procedures on its Megiddo-Jezreel #1 well. The Company does not intend to comment further on this matter unless in the Company’s judgment, it merits further comment or public disclosure. 

     

      1  

     

     

     

    SIGNATURES

     

    Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereto duly authorized.

     

       
      Zion Oil and Gas, Inc.
       
         
    Date: July 11, 2018 By: /s/ Victor G. Carrillo
        Victor G. Carrillo
        Chief Executive Officer

     


    SubjectThis week we finally get the "flow test results"?
    Entry08/11/2018 12:49 PM
    Memberjcoviedo

    Probably time to load up on September puts.

     

    From a 7/31/2018 update

     

    Operational Update regarding the testing of the Megiddo Jezreel #1 Well

    Zion Shareholders and Supporters,

    Zion continues its well testing operations on its primary targets within the Triassic formations of the Megiddo-Jezreel #1.  I realize that the testing of these zones has taken longer than expected and as communicated at the 2018 Annual Shareholders Meeting, as a result of both mechanical and logistical delays.   Zion expects, pending any further unforeseen delays, to complete testing on these zones on or about the week of August 13th.  If testing is completed by this date, we expect be able to announce the initial findings of the primary targets soon thereafter.  If any material delays or changes to this plan occur, we will communicate accordingly.
     
    We want to thank all of you for your patience, continued prayer and support.  We know how invested each of you are in this project, and thank you for standing alongside of us throughout this journey.
     
    Regards,


     
    Dustin Guinn
    President & COO
    Zion Oil & Gas, Inc.


    SubjectShockingly, the MJ #1 well is not commercial
    Entry08/16/2018 07:32 PM
    Memberjcoviedo

    More shockingly, Zion is finally out with well results.

     

    https://www.zionoil.com/updates/zion-oil-gas-confirms-active-petroleum-system-in-megiddo-jezreel-1-well-in-israel/

     

     

    Is the MJ #1 a Successful Well?

     

    This is a question that can be answered in a number of ways:

     

    1. In considering the success rate of wildcat wells, with little to no offset data, in our opinion the MJ #1 could be considered a geologic success as follows:
      1. A very favorable Thermal Gradient has been shown to exist;
      2. The MJ #1 has successfully demonstrated the existence of an active petroleum system. Oil has been encountered which we believe confirms that mature source rocks have expelled hydrocarbons that have migrated into a trap which was drilled by MJ #1; and
      3. There are multiple identifiable targets and objectives that have been observed based on drilling, testing and petrophysical analysis, which we have yet to test.
    2. Is the well commercially successful with the information that we currently have, as of the writing of this update, during the testing of the deepest zones of interest?  The answer is no.  The drilling and testing on this well was much more costly than we expected, and as of today cannot be considered commercially successful.

     

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