{"num_not_elig":"451","result":[{"id":169240,"subject":"They're stealin' my short rebate!","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":939,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2020-09-22 11:49:58","up":3,"down":0,"thread_rank":"10372.9614546","display_name":"mpk391","comment":"Got this message from a friend.  Anybody have advice for him?  Thanks.\nI own a large amount of a stock... a couple million dollars.  I'll tell you about it sometime soon.  The stock has a very","num_posts":10,"last_post_date":"2021-01-30 07:24:13","display_name_html":"mpk391<\/span>","time_ago":"9\/22\/20","last_post_date_time_ago":"1\/30\/21","subject_encode":"Theyre_stealin_my_short_rebate%21","read_more":"

Got this message from a friend.  Anybody have advice for him?  Thanks.<\/p>\n

I own a large amount of a stock... a couple million dollars.  I'll tell you about it sometime soon.  The stock has a very high short rebate, >80%.  Interactive Brokers keeps a full 50%<\/em> of this rebate.<\/div>\n
 <\/div>\n
My question to you is; do you know of any other brokers that 1) actually pay you the short rebate and 2) pay you an amount closer to the full borrow cost?<\/div>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Tuesday, Sep, 22 2020","by_user":"mpk391<\/span>"},{"id":166876,"subject":"protocol for","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":47247,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2020-07-27 10:32:09","up":0,"down":5,"thread_rank":"10262.2416078","display_name":"WeighingMachine","comment":"account removal?","num_posts":10,"last_post_date":"2021-01-23 20:31:38","display_name_html":"WeighingMachine<\/span>","time_ago":"7\/27\/20","last_post_date_time_ago":"1\/23\/21","subject_encode":"protocol_for","read_more":"

account removal?<\/p>","show_more":0,"format_date":"Monday, Jul, 27 2020","by_user":"WeighingMachine<\/span>"},{"id":166187,"subject":"Stagflation Is Coming","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":103952,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2020-07-13 17:16:48","up":15,"down":3,"thread_rank":"10237.6792924","display_name":"jstavh","comment":"The old adage, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” rings true as our current economic situation echoes the early 1970s when relatively massive monetary policies gave birth to stagflation. I believe stagflation (high","num_posts":68,"last_post_date":"2020-09-12 13:35:21","display_name_html":"jstavh<\/span>","time_ago":"7\/13\/20","last_post_date_time_ago":"9\/12\/20","subject_encode":"Stagflation_Is_Coming","read_more":"

The old adage, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” rings true as our current economic situation echoes the early 1970s when relatively massive monetary policies gave birth to stagflation. I believe stagflation (high unemployment, high inflation and a stagnant economy) is around the corner, which would make the subsequent years difficult, force rates to normalize, and end the multiple asset bubbles, and I am curious to hear other members’ thoughts.<\/span> <\/p>\n

Today, unemployment is well into the double digits and our government is printing money like it’s nobody’s business. Milton Friedman puts it simply: “There has never been in history an inflation that was not accompanied by an extremely rapid increase in the quantity of money. There has never in history been an extremely rapid increase in the quantity of money without inflation…. There are no exceptions.” Evidencing over 100 years of US and over 200 years of UK and Sweden data, Dr. Friedman made these statements in the late 1970s (in the 1950s and 1960s, he was dismissed as an economic “flat-earther” for his ideas, including his prediction of stagflation before it occurred and before it was even coined a term.) <\/span>Moreover, the more confident people and investors are becoming in the Fed as a safety net, the more confident the Fed is in vocalizing and then printing additional dollars, which in turn makes me more certain that stagflation is likely in the near future.<\/span><\/p>\n

People view inflation as a black box, mysterious, and therefore blame many things for it, but inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon. Inflation is always caused by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than the quantity of goods. Significant changes in the latter (productivity) have a marginal impact on inflation. An example of this misunderstanding is the widely accepted concept that the stagflation of the 1970s was substantially caused by the oil supply shock. Many professionals and websites write that: “Stagflation<\/span> is often caused<\/span> by a rise in the price of commodities, such as oil. Stagflation<\/span> occurred in the 1970s<\/span> following the tripling in the price of oil.” However, this is wrong. Dr. Friedman excellently explains how the oil shock had a “negligible” impact on inflation here: <\/span>Stagflation Was Not Caused by Cost-Push Factors<\/span><\/a> (skip to 9:52 for his explanation, but I highly recommend watching its entirety). This disconnect may be a result of the Fed rewriting history. Dr. Friedman’s demoralizing assessment of the Fed in his book, Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960<\/span>, aggravated the Fed so much so that it stopped making its meetings public and offered a counter history.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are similarities between the earlier 1970s and now; the first to address is the recent epic step function increase in M2 on a percentage basis: it is this sudden acceleration that can cause much higher levels of inflation than people are expecting, or even thinking about. M2 growth during Nixon-Burns is nothing compared to the Trump-Powell world we live in today. During Nixon’s re-election campaign, he produced meaningful money creation policies because he insisted on focusing on unemployment**. From December 1971 to December 1972, M2 rose from $710B to $802B, a 13.0% y\/y growth. Going back further, M2 on December 1970, 1969 and 1968 was roughly $627B, $588B and $567B, representing 1971, 1970 and 1969 growth rates of 13.2%, 6.6% and 3.7%, respectively. In comparison, we were growing at a healthy MSD linear growth clip until recently. On June 1, 2020, March 2, 2020 (before the rapid increase), and June 3, 2019, M2 was $18,152B, $15,598B and $14,726B, which represented a 16.4% 3-month (quasi-q\/q) increase and a 23.3% y\/y increase. M2 on June 4, 2018 was $14,094B, giving June 2019 a 4.5% y\/y growth. If you want to see the hockey stick movement in M2, please visit <\/span>FRED<\/span><\/a>. Therefore, we are not only currently experiencing a huge 18.8 points acceleration – nearly triple the 6.6 points during Nixon-Burns – that will take time for people to feel (the next paragraph quantifies the time lag), but also we are already growing at a 79% faster rate than during Nixon-Burns. If that were not enough, the Fed is not done yet; ~$6T has become the new number after the ~$2.6T add, and we could see more than ~$6T. If ~$6T were completely reflected in M2, then $15,598B would become ~$21,598, pushing future q\/q and y\/y rates much higher towards 10s%-30s% (depending on how fast the Fed pumps) and the mid-40s%, respectively. Conversely, during the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933 in the US, we went in the opposite direction: M2 declined by ~33%, the total number of banks went down by ~33%, GDP declined by ~25%-30% from its peak, and deflation compounded down roughly mid-20s% from its peak.<\/span><\/p>\n

You might say, “wait inflation is down meaningfully after heating up for a while and trending as such for the first five months of the year: 2.5%, 2.3%, 1.5%, 0.3% and 0.1%.” However, consider inflation has remained positive despite many companies experiencing y\/y declines of ~50% to even ~90% during March and April and despite people were and are still hoarding their money in a panicked and or braced state for the economic impacts of the pandemic. Importantly, there is also a delay between printing money and its inevitable inflationary effects. At the time (late 1970s), Dr. Friedman stated that on the average in the US over the past 100 years, an increase in the quantity of money has taken 5-6 months to affect people’s spending (people just experience bigger bank accounts during this time), and then another 12-18 months until it works its way into prices. Hence, there is about a 2-year interval between the rise in the quantity of money and its full inflationary effects.<\/span><\/p>\n

It appears that we are going down this path of higher inflation in light of most overlooking it. The current savings rates have gone parabolic, which corresponds with people experiencing bigger bank accounts in those beginning 5-6 months. Savings rates were mostly 7% to 8% for the past few years before jumping to a record ~33% in April (recently revised down to ~32%). The previous record savings rate was almost half that: ~17% in May 1975, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. May is now out at ~23% – still significantly above the previous record! At the same time, we are experiencing shortages as production has significantly declined and supply chains have been interrupted. For instance, the media has recently highlighted meat shortages. It is hard to imagine that the demand for food will decrease in line with the drop in supply, which means prices should increase. Basically, productivity has significantly decreased while the government is printing trillions, both should lead to inflation. I do not see a scenario where the quantity of money is not growing faster than the quantity of goods.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, government intervention has provided short-term, temporary boosts in economic activity that mask the long-term reality. These helped Nixon win the re-election, but soon after we all paid the price of inflation for favoring short-term indulgences over long-term developments. Some examples are:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. In May, we had a better than expected jobs report: we added 2.7M jobs compared to the 8.3M expected losses. In June, we added 4.8M vs. 2.9M expected, and the next release forecasts a 2.2M add. However, economists cast doubt on recent data and despite this unemployment is still in the double digits. For example, the total number of people claiming benefits under all programs suggests unemployment is closer to ~20% versus the supposedly official ~11% in June.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Retail sales jumped past expectations, coming in at ~18% growth y\/y in May vs. ~8% growth expected and more importantly vs. a ~(15%) decline in April. By September, estimates predict ~1.5% growth, but with or without a second coronavirus surge, declines seem likely.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Recent wage increases across major firms are actually a consequence of the economy heating up earlier this year above the 2.0% inflation target (as a side note, the 2.0% inflation target is a made-up number: Volcker has elaborated on this; also keep in mind one of Friedman’s quotes, “inflation is taxation without representation.”)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Even though, “the average rate of inflation over a period of time has no relationship at all with the average rate of growth or the average level of unemployment,” according to Dr. Friedman, I think it is interesting to point out that GDP is noticeably worse now than during the early 1970s. Back then, GDP growth slowed to flat by 1970, then rose to nearly 6%, before declining to (0.5%) and (0.2%) in 1974 and 1975 respectively vs. an estimated ~(8%) contraction for 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In conclusion, I am not saying that we will have the exact same double-digit inflation levels of the 1970s or that the world is ending, but I believe we are headed for a rough few years with much higher levels of inflation and unemployment compared to those prior to the pandemic. During many recessions and depressions, we have had bear market rallies that have lasted as long as a year. This time around does not seem different to me; I do not view the current environment as a recovery. In my opinion, this is a bear market rally where the amplitudes are greater due to quants and algos exacerbating both the peaks and troughs as well as a very high level of animal spirits and or greed. About a year or two ago, I told everyone that the next decade would be nothing like the past decade we experienced. I had no idea what would occur in 2020 and beyond, but I knew it would be a statistical anomaly to have so many years of continuous prosperity and low unemployment without any interruption. As a disclaimer, I am neither an economist nor a historian, and if you agree or disagree with me, please feel free to do so.<\/span><\/p>\n

    **P.S. Back to Nixon-Burns: “Consistent with this, President Nixon, observing applause for Burns at Burns’ swearing-in, said on record: ‘That is a standing vote of approval, in advance for lower interest rates and more money,’ and noted, ‘I have very strong views, and I expect to present them to Mr. Burns. I respect his independence, but I hope that he independently will conclude that my views are the right ones’ (KCS, 02\/01\/70)” (<\/span><\/em>https:\/\/fraser.stlouisfed.org\/files\/docs\/meltzer\/nelgre04.pdf<\/span><\/em><\/a>). Later on, many accused Nixon and Burns of making a deal so that Nixon could win the re-election and Burns could keep his government position. Unsurprisingly, both of them denied these accusations. In today’s world, Trump has made it even clearer that he disrespects this independence with countless quotes, and Powell has obliged to be his marionette.<\/span><\/em><\/p>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Monday, Jul, 13 2020","by_user":"jstavh<\/span>"},{"id":161661,"subject":"\" Bear markets have three stages \u2014 sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtre","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":29828,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2020-04-19 14:03:17","up":6,"down":3,"thread_rank":"10073.6192101","display_name":"Shoe","comment":"One of the sell side greats Robert Farrell https:\/\/www.institutionalinvestor.com\/article\/b150zqsn79g46z\/hall-of-fame-20-robert-farrell who has been through a lot, had 10 market rules to remember.  A lot of them are dumb or obvious,  but #8 is worth remebering: \n\"8. Bear...","num_posts":4,"last_post_date":"2020-04-21 14:23:47","display_name_html":"Shoe<\/span>","time_ago":"4\/19\/20","last_post_date_time_ago":"4\/21\/20","subject_encode":"%26quot%3B_Bear_markets_have_three_stages_%26mdash%3B_sharp_down_reflexive_rebound_and_a_drawn-out_fundamental_downtre","read_more":"

    One of the sell side greats Robert Farrell https:\/\/www.institutionalinvestor.com\/article\/b150zqsn79g46z\/hall-of-fame-20-robert-farrell<\/a> who has been through a lot, had 10 market rules to remember.  A lot of them are dumb or obvious,  but #8 is worth remebering: <\/p>\n

    \"8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend<\/p>\n

    I would suggest that as of August 2008, we are on our third reflexive rebound — the Januuary rate cuts, the Bear Stearns low in March, and now the Fannie\/Freddie rescue lows of July.<\/p>\n

    Even with these sporadic rallies end, we have yet to see the  long drawn out fundamental portion of the Bear Market.\"<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Here are his  10 Market Rules to Remember<\/p>\n

    1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time<\/p>\n

    When stocks go too far in one direction, they come back. Euphoria and pessimism can cloud people’s heads. It’s easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment and lose perspective.<\/p>\n

    2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction<\/p>\n

    Think of the market baseline as attached to a rubber string. Any action to far in one direction not only brings you back to the baseline, but leads to an overshoot in the opposite direction.<\/p>\n

    3. There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent<\/p>\n

    Whatever the latest hot sector is, it eventually overheats, mean reverts, and then overshoots. Look at how far the emerging markets and BRIC nations ran over the past 6 years, only to get cut in half.<\/p>\n

    As the fever builds, a chorus of “this time it’s different” will be heard, even if those exact words are never used. And of course, it — Human Nature — never is different.<\/p>\n

    4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways<\/p>\n

    Regardless of how hot a sector is, don’t expect a plateau to work off the excesses. Profits are locked in by selling, and that invariably leads to a significant correction — eventually.  comes.<\/p>\n

    5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom<\/p>\n

    That’s why contrarian-minded investors can make good money if they follow the sentiment indicators and have good timing.<\/p>\n

    Watch Investors Intelligence (measuring the mood of more than 100 investment newsletter writers) and the American Association of Individual Investors survey.<\/p>\n

    6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve<\/p>\n

    Investors can be their own worst enemy, particularly when emotions take hold. Gains “make us exuberant; they enhance well-being and promote optimism,” says Santa Clara University finance professor  Meir Statman. His studies of investor behavior show that “Losses bring sadness, disgust, fear, regret. Fear increases the sense of risk and some react by shunning stocks.”<\/p>\n

    7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names<\/p>\n

    Hence, why breadth and volume are so important. Think of it as strength in numbers. Broad momentum is hard to stop, Farrell observes. Watch for when momentum channels into a small number of stocks (“Nifty 50” stocks).<\/p>\n

    8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend<\/p>\n

    I would suggest that as of August 2008, we are on our third reflexive rebound — the Januuary rate cuts, the Bear Stearns low in March, and now the Fannie\/Freddie rescue lows of July.<\/p>\n

    Even with these sporadic rallies end, we have yet to see the  long drawn out fundamental portion of the Bear Market.<\/p>\n

    9. When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen<\/p>\n

    As Stovall, the S&P investment strategist, puts it: “If everybody’s optimistic, who is left to buy? If everybody’s pessimistic, who’s left to sell?”<\/p>\n

    Going against the herd as Farrell repeatedly suggests can be very profitable, especially for patient buyers who raise cash from frothy markets and reinvest it when sentiment is darkest.<\/p>\n

    10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets<\/p>\n

    Especially if you are long only or mandated to be full invested. Those with more flexible charters might squeek out a smile or two here and there.<\/p>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Sunday, Apr, 19 2020","by_user":"Shoe<\/span>"},{"id":159352,"subject":"Best practices during Covid 19","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":79246,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2020-03-21 23:57:37","up":14,"down":0,"thread_rank":"10019.4006614","display_name":"O6I","comment":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/YfsdJGj3-jM\nIt has been a wild couple of weeks. Hoping that every member here is safe. \nLink above is a video by a Japanese reporter living in Nanjing, China. Shows the steps the city has taken, covering","num_posts":2,"last_post_date":"2020-03-26 11:43:11","display_name_html":"O6I<\/span>","time_ago":"3\/21\/20","last_post_date_time_ago":"3\/26\/20","subject_encode":"Best_practices_during_Covid_19","read_more":"

    https:\/\/youtu.be\/YfsdJGj3-jM<\/a><\/p>\n

    It has been a wild couple of weeks. Hoping that every member here is safe. <\/p>\n

    Link above is a video by a Japanese reporter living in Nanjing, China. Shows the steps the city has taken, covering most scenarios, to combat Covid 19's spread. It is very impressive. Zero new cases. Set aside what you think about China and its numbers; this is the gold standard. I'm from Singapore, where things are largely under control. Nonetheless, there is plenty we can learn from this.<\/p>\n

    It has been very frustrating watching differing standards of responses to Covid 19. There are developing best practices out there that can be shared and adopted. Every second counts, since this is a highly contagious disease with exponential spread. Our actions matter. Others can be blasé about it; we don't have to, especially if the risk is to unknowingly spread the disease to those we care about.<\/p>\n

    Hope that this video helps everyone here stay safe with the right set of practices to survive this period. Share this with your family, friends and colleagues. This is a community of shared knowledge and while it ain't investing stuff, I hope this helps. <\/p>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Saturday, Mar, 21 2020","by_user":"O6I<\/span>"},{"id":158498,"subject":"Panic at the Disco","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":34054,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2020-03-12 09:44:54","up":20,"down":1,"thread_rank":"10001.1163314","display_name":"cnm3d","comment":" \nTo start, some basic historical stats:\n \n \n·       Overall Since 1945\no   >13% selloffs – 29\n§  13-17% selloffs – 14\n§  >17% selloffs – 17\no   >17% selloff statistics\n§ ...","num_posts":280,"last_post_date":"2020-05-23 08:47:02","display_name_html":"cnm3d<\/span>","time_ago":"3\/12\/20","last_post_date_time_ago":"5\/23\/20","subject_encode":"Panic_at_the_Disco","read_more":"

     <\/p>\n

    To start, some basic historical stats:<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>Overall Since 1945<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>>13% selloffs – 29<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>13-17% selloffs – 14<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>>17% selloffs – 17<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>>17% selloff statistics<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>17-20% selloffs – 9<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>>20% selloffs – 8<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>Note: 50% chance we’ve seen the bottom<\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>Recessions<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>12 recessions since 1945<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>7 recession selloffs = 15-20% corrections<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>5 recession selloffs = >20%<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>>20% recession selloffs<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>3 correspond with >500bps Fed rate hikes in under two years (1968, 1974, 1980)<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1 is Dot Com bubble, where earnings dropped 15% but multiple 27x to 15x<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1 is Great Recession, where multiple fell from 16x to 13x but earnings fell 35%<\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>“The Bad Ones” – >20% selloffs<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>5 Recessions, 3 Panics<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>Every “bad” recession selloff took over two years peak-trough and started with a negative Equity Risk Premium (ex. ’07)<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>Every “bad” panic followed a >40% SPX move in prior 18 months<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>Panics<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1962 – 26% - “Kennedy Slide” – Following a 40% rally the prior year, selloff took three months. Rebounded quickly.<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1946 – 26% - Post World War II – Following a 75% rally, fears of inflation, a return of the Great Depression economy, and the end of QE during 1930s-1940s took off. No recession. Took two years to recover.<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1987 – 34% - “Black Monday” – Stocks crashed after a 50% move in first half of year. Selloff took three months.<\/p>\n

    o   <\/span><\/span><\/span>Recessions<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1980 – 27% - 1980 Recession – Volcker took rates up and caused a recession. Took place over a two year period.<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1968 – 36% - Inflation increased. Fed raised rates aggressively. Stocks were expensive. Took two years.<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>1973 – 48% - Fed raised rates massively to fight inflation, huge recession, oil crisis, end of Bretton woods. Took two years. Stocks bounced hard in year after.<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>2000 – 49% - Dotcom and 9\/11. Took three years.<\/p>\n

    §  <\/span><\/span><\/span>2007 – 57% - Great Recession. Took two years.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    So to start, the SPX this AM is down over 25% in three weeks, which is basically within 10% of the bottom of any correction\/bear market beyond three times. Those three times did not take place over three weeks – it took over a year to reach those levels.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    In the past three days I have:<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>Received a phone call from a portfolio manager who was genuinely worried about a breakdown in social order (as in riots destroying NYC)<\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>Heard an NYU undergrad in the park loudly declare that the markets were over and going to fall 50% this week, but hopefully could be salvaged by AI and machine learning creating a vaccine soon<\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>Had literally every person I know talk extensively about the coronavirus<\/p>\n

    ·       <\/span><\/span><\/span>Last night, the East Village was empty and my friends and I were the only party at a fairly popular restaurant after 9 PM<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    I have absolutely no doubt that the market volatility and tremendous negative news cycle, combined with social distancing practices, will have a real economic impact. But let’s talk about COVID-19.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    I think the data coming from South Korea, Germany, and outside-Wuhan China is a good sign – they’ve tested hundreds of thousands in this sample set, so its statistically relevant (unlike testing a single nursing home in Washington with an outbreak…) and the death rate is like 0.5% - a cause for concern but not the end of times. The cruise ship off Japan is also a very strong indicator – it’s been a month so the results are in, you had 700 people get the disease in the worst possible way (stranded in close contact with the sick and no medicine and 50% of the infected were over 70 versus China with 12% of elderly infections) and only 7 died with half of the cases asymptomatic. The point being that once we start getting more US testing and a better grasp on risk and where its coming from this won’t be an end of times disease but a severe seasonal flu where we try to slow the pace to avoid cramping the hospital system. Importantly, the high numbers of asymptomatic cases mean extreme measures of closing borders, air travel, all schools, etc. are unlikely to ever fully stamp out the disease, which means they are unlikely to last for long periods of time. I believe we will likely soon move to curb the disease through more targeted social distancing and closures rather than wholesale freakout on all social gatherings and travel that the market seems to fear at the moment.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Most importantly, I do not think there is any real risk that the current crisis destroys the banking system, my true fear in any panic.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    In summary, I think we are talking about a decently large short-term hit to GDP that will reverse relatively quickly as the harsh measures are undone and likely stimulus comes in, though I would be careful of businesses relating to travel and social gatherings as well as high priced securities.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Regarding when to buy, I have absolutely no idea when and where the bottom is and my PNL has been destroyed. But I am willing to bet we are closer to the bottom than feared and have repositioned as much as possible into cyclical investments that have no real BK risk in a harsh recession and have multibagger upside if we all just calm down.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    We beat Hitler. We will withstand this.<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Thursday, Mar, 12 2020","by_user":"cnm3d<\/span>"},{"id":146968,"subject":"any good opportunity zone funds out there?","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":9486,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2019-04-01 09:15:32","up":7,"down":0,"thread_rank":"9336.3235203","display_name":"kalman951","comment":"Our firm is looking for a good opportunity zone fund in which to invest.  There are a lot of new funds being formed, but most of the new funds I've come across are pretty horrendous.\nHas anyone","num_posts":1,"last_post_date":"2019-04-01 10:34:02","display_name_html":"kalman951<\/span>","time_ago":"4\/01\/19","last_post_date_time_ago":"4\/01\/19","subject_encode":"any_good_opportunity_zone_funds_out_there","read_more":"

    Our firm is looking for a good opportunity zone fund in which to invest.  There are a lot of new funds being formed, but most of the new funds I've come across are pretty horrendous.<\/p>\n

    Has anyone come across any diversified OZ funds that look interesting?  Or perhaps just not horrendous?<\/p>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Monday, Apr, 1 2019","by_user":"kalman951<\/span>"},{"id":141450,"subject":"Hong-Kong listed Chinese stocks","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":39441,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2018-10-24 12:11:03","up":5,"down":1,"thread_rank":"9031.0345044","display_name":"aagold","comment":"The recently posted Texhong Textile idea got me wondering about what other HK-listed Chinese stocks are available at what seem like extremely cheap valuations.  I ran some screens on FactSet and came across a bunch","num_posts":23,"last_post_date":"2019-01-04 16:28:42","display_name_html":"aagold<\/span>","time_ago":"10\/24\/18","last_post_date_time_ago":"1\/04\/19","subject_encode":"Hong-Kong_listed_Chinese_stocks","read_more":"

    The recently posted Texhong Textile idea got me wondering about what other HK-listed Chinese stocks are available at what seem like extremely cheap valuations.  I ran some screens on FactSet and came across a bunch of them and here are some of the more interesting names I found.  I bought small \"starter\" positions in a few of these but haven't done any detailed work yet.  I was wondering if other VIC members have experience with HK-listed Chinese stocks, what their experience has been, and if anyone's familiar with these particular companies or others they'd like to recommend.<\/p>\n

    <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    In the table above, NTM is FactSet consensus Next Twelve Months and STM is Second Twelve Months (one year after NTM).<\/span><\/p>\n

    What I find interesting about these is most have very high insider ownership and have historically paid out around 30% of earnings as dividends. So, it at least *appears* that management is running the companies for the benefit of the shareholders rather than for the benefit of executive management and other employees. However, some like the first four on the list seem to be hoarding a serious amount of cash. I don't really understand why, but the dividend yield is still quite attractive and the excess cash should make the stock much less risky. It doesn't seem like these companies buy back their own shares, not sure if that's cultural or if perhaps there are legal issues. Perhaps China's capital controls and non-convertibility of the Yuan factors into all this somehow? <\/span><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n\n\n\n","show_more":1,"format_date":"Wednesday, Oct, 24 2018","by_user":"aagold<\/span>"},{"id":131351,"subject":"Quantitative\/systematic value investing vs. Discretionary value investing (\"stock picking\") ","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":39441,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2018-01-13 14:03:56","up":32,"down":1,"thread_rank":"8486.8743172","display_name":"aagold","comment":"I'm curious about how much interest among VIC members there is in learning more about and discussing quantitative\/systematic value investing.  A great example of what I mean by quantitative value investing is Greenblatt's \"Magic Formula\",","num_posts":22,"last_post_date":"2020-07-03 09:14:04","display_name_html":"aagold<\/span>","time_ago":"1\/13\/18","last_post_date_time_ago":"7\/03\/20","subject_encode":"Quantitativesystematic_value_investing_vs._Discretionary_value_investing_%26quot%3Bstock_picking%26quot%3B_","read_more":"

    I'm curious about how much interest among VIC members there is in learning more about and discussing quantitative\/systematic value investing.  A great example of what I mean by quantitative value investing is Greenblatt's \"Magic Formula\", whereas the vast majority of what's posted on VIC is what I'd call \"discretionary stock picking\" which usually involves deep research into specific securities, special situations, and narratives\/stories on why a particular stock is a good idea.<\/p>\n

    If there's interest in quantitative value investing here, perhaps this thread could serve as a place where people can post links to good papers, or perhaps even links to original work\/reports that people would like to share.  I, for one, am making the transition to a more \"quantamental\" approach, which is sort of a hybrid between the two approaches (quant and fundamental).  I'm sure it's apparent to most here that the trend towards quantitative methods is gaining serious market share in terms of AUM, so I imagine I'm not the only one here thinking about how the investment management business is changing and the development of quant methods and software.<\/p>\n

    I'm going to ask for a vote in the next two posts, and I'd ask people not to downvote either of those posts since will corrupt the results.  Please upvote only one of the following two posts.<\/p>","show_more":1,"format_date":"Saturday, Jan, 13 2018","by_user":"aagold<\/span>"},{"id":130236,"subject":"secular industry growth - beethoven","symbol":"","is_long":"","user_id":67132,"idea_id":"","is_idea":0,"add_date":"2017-12-01 13:18:01","up":2,"down":0,"thread_rank":"8403.0627633","display_name":"Bluegrass","comment":"Greatly enjoyed your analysis in the AXTA thread. Curious what other industries you (& others) find attractive over the long term? ","num_posts":1,"last_post_date":"2017-12-05 05:09:36","display_name_html":"Bluegrass<\/span>","time_ago":"12\/01\/17","last_post_date_time_ago":"12\/05\/17","subject_encode":"secular_industry_growth_-_beethoven","read_more":"

    Greatly enjoyed your analysis in the AXTA thread. Curious what other industries you (& others) find attractive over the long term? <\/span><\/p>","show_more":0,"format_date":"Friday, Dec, 1 2017","by_user":"Bluegrass<\/span>"}],"total":"333","num_page":34,"page":1,"dates":{"Tuesday, Sep, 22 2020":1600789798,"Monday, Jul, 27 2020":1595860329,"Monday, Jul, 13 2020":1594675008,"Sunday, Apr, 19 2020":1587319397,"Saturday, Mar, 21 2020":1584849457,"Thursday, Mar, 12 2020":1584020694,"Monday, Apr, 1 2019":1554124532,"Wednesday, Oct, 24 2018":1540397463,"Saturday, Jan, 13 2018":1515870236,"Friday, Dec, 1 2017":1512152281},"success":true,"message":"","rendered":0.004230022430419922,"stats":null}