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LKQ CORP LKQ
09/13/2021
...e viewed in a similar manner to names like AZO or CHTR where a strong moat, consistent slow top-line growth with some operating leverage and steady buybacks combine to grow value per share over time.
09/01/2021
...to be a conservative valuation per fiber passing. CHTR, a cable provider trades around $4,700 per passing.... passing. CABO trades around $6,500 per passings. CHTR is mostly a cable company, where CABO has a mix of fiber and cable.
08/06/2021
... combinations, and better than TMUS for one line. CHTR has the same MVNO with VZ so they can match CMCSA.
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...a total premium of 3.7%.  Adding this premium to CHTR's FCF & EBITDA yields results in a FCF multiple discount of 33% vs....lds results in a FCF multiple discount of 33% vs. CHTR and a 25% EBITDA multiple discount vs....b>CHTR and a 25% EBITDA multiple discount vs. CHTR....ultiple discount vs. CHTR.  Using today's CHTR FCF multiple of 13....ustments to this based upon you view of how cheap CHTR's multiples are.
...ws 5% per annum and Mobile turns EBITDA positive. CHTR margins get to where CMCSA is now.
...Own CHTR as well (via LBRD) and directionally agree with eigenvalue's FCF/share math (although capex looks a little low). The levered equity model at CHTR is al... looks a little low). The levered equity model at CHTR is alive and well, and I don't see anything changing that....of the business.  It'll be interesting to see if CHTR becomes a full cash tax payer in the coming years or if they find a way to push it back again....ile costs, it might be possible.  So yes, I like CHTR and LBTY for different reasons.... like CHTR and LBTY for different reasons. CHTR for the continuation of the levered equity model and LBTY for the SOTP unlock.
...For CHTR, it is an 8% fully taxed free cash flow yield to the equity based on 2022 numbers.  If analysts' forecasts re $27bn in EBITDA i...ecasts re $27bn in EBITDA in 2026 are correct for CHTR, then CHTR will generate 45% of its market cap in fully taxed free cash flow in the five year period period between 01/01/2022 and 12/31/2026.
...o the extent that broadband customers take video, CHTR/CMCSA will have a lower cost structure and hence will be able to charge less....o customers who also take cell phone service from CHTR/CMCSA.
...assed so thats $100/home passed included in opex. CHTR 2016 10k does a good job breaking down some those cost bucks on pg 43....FTTH. Call center costs is variable. If 2/3rds of CHTR cost to service is field/network ops thats about $100/home passed (in line with article I mentioned below)....in HFC and FTTH as you point out. But if you take CHTR capex of $7 billion less line extensions and scalable infrastructure of $3 billion, adjusted for a business with 40% penetration vs 50% and no increasing penetration, youre looking at basically fixed capex per home passed of $50....ssible for a competitor to be more efficient than CHTR so maybe fixed costs could get down to $150/home passed, but thats probably lower limit.
...verbuilder its offset by higher churn compared to CHTR or Cable One, and not enough to change the economics...., which has only 10% penetration of video (vs 30% CHTR) and 35% penetration of internet....rebuilt capex is less than 10% of total capex for CHTR, maybe this is somewhat less in FTTH, but doesnt move the needle.
...n. But, operating costs and maintenance capex for CHTR is about $400/home passed and they have 50% penetration....operating and maintenance capex somewhere between CHTR and WOW of around $300/home passed.
...rand value outside of the old VZ properties while CHTR and CMCSA have been around for years, are raising speeds on entry level offerings, and will shortly be offering 10 Gbps down / 2-5 Gbps up with DOCSIS 4.
...Combined with competitive response from CMCSA and CHTR, Frontier fiber profits will probably be zero (EBITDA minus maintenance capex) so very unlikely they will be able to fund and build more than a few million more homes.
...s certainly been choppier quarter to quarter than CHTR or CMCSA....TR or CMCSA. ATUS isn't as good a business as CHTR (ATUS prices are higher and it has less DSL competition to penetrate than CHTR).... has grown homes passed at about the same rate as CHTR and CMCSA, and has grown broadband subs annually at a little less than half the rate of CHTR and CMCSA....usiness customer, ATUS spends about 12% less than CHTR and about 18% less than CMCSA....an the very geographically disperse footprints of CHTR and CMCSA.... ATUS is 5.5x. ATUS 2031 4.5% bonds trade at par, CHTR 2031 bonds trade about 60bps tighter, but CHTR is also more than a full turn less levered than ATUS....end). Those numbers are closer to 13x and 20x for CHTR....b>CHTR. No, ATUS shouldn't trade in line with CHTR, but 10x EBITDA - Maintenance Capex for a stable business than can be levered is pretty attractive....from fiber newbuild from AT&T and Frontier. So is CHTR....ut upside/downside at ATUS also seems better than CHTR at these levels.
...ower / FCF.  2/3 of their 9mm passings look like CHTR and CABO (Suddenlink arguably even better than CABO given lower penetration and fiber competition) and grow subs at similar rates, the 1/3 that competes with FiOS and is no growth/ceding share is around 35% through an upgrade to FTTH that will be fully complete in two years that future-proofs the only part of the business that is competitive....FTTH assets trading 12x EBITDA+ in private deals, CHTR/CABO trading 11.
...21. In my opinion, this should warrant atleast a CHTR multiple - but given it has a more attractive footprint, more growth opportunities and more leverage, I think you can argue a higher multiple....erage, I think you can argue a higher multiple. A CHTR multiple implies the Optimum footprint trades <7x, while a CABO multiple on Suddenlink implies Cablevision trading at ~4x.
...he idea it's done well.   Question - given that CHTR stock is 2% away from your 2023 base case price have you changed your thinking about CHTR valuation? are you surprised that the discount has not narrowed significantly given the large buybacks at Broadband? while i would think an eventual merger with CHTR makes sense - what happens if CHTR isn't interested in a merger?  what are liberty options at
...me to put it on again. SIRI was a homerun, as was CHTR.